✦ Calendar 2026: Guidance Raised Three TimesNarrow moat

Applied Materials (AMAT) — the future bets

Applied raised its 2026 machine-growth forecast three times in six months and then stopped giving a number.

Applied's own forecast for its machine business has kept rising. In February 2026 it expected Semiconductor Systems to grow "over 20 percent this calendar year"1; in May, to "grow more than 30 percent in calendar 2026"2; in August it said it was "further raising our Semiconductor Systems revenue expectations for calendar 2026"3. Quartz reported that the company "declined to provide a specific updated figure"4.

Semiconductor Systems revenue, FY2026 ($M)5,141Q15,965Q27,040Q3Applied Materials Q1-Q3 FY2026 results releases, new segment basis
Each quarter larger than the last.

The results support it. Semiconductor Systems revenue was $5,141 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, $5,965 million in the second and $7,040 million in the third567.

A forecast raised three times in six months usually means demand is ahead of supply rather than ahead of plans. The company said it had "increased our build plan, inventory positions and logistics capacity"8.

The fourth-quarter guidance puts a number on what the words imply. Revenue of $10,250 million plus or minus $500 million, with non-GAAP earnings per share of $4.02 plus or minus $0.209, would be about 12.5% above the record just set10.

The company's first-quarter guidance in February was modest by comparison. First-quarter revenue was $7,012 million, down 2%11, when China restrictions and the settlement weighed. The forecast rose as the year went on, which is the opposite of the pattern in the 2023 downturn, when expectations fell each quarter.

The risk is that a figure no longer given is harder to miss publicly. The next quarter's systems revenue is the evidence; growth of less than 30% year on year in the fourth quarter would mean the raised outlook was not met.

Moat trajectory: Widening

From over 20% to over 30% to higher.

The number that tests this moat
Moat Explorer calc
Semiconductor Systems growth, latest quarter
+26.5% year on year (Q3 FY2026)

Delivery against the raised outlook; growth below 30% in Q4 would mean it was not met.

How it's calculated: Q3 FY2026 segment revenue $7,040M divided by recast $5,564M a year earlier, minus one.
Source: Moat Explorer calculation from Applied Materials filings ↗
References
  1. ReportedIn February 2026 it expected Semiconductor Systems to grow "over 20 percent this calendar year"; in May, to "grow more than 30 percent in calendar 2026"; in August it said it was "further raising our Semiconductor Systems revenue expectations for calendar 2026".
    Applied Materials first-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - the BIS charge, the EPIC Center and manufacturing capacity. — Q1 FY2026 · publ. 12 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIn February 2026 it expected Semiconductor Systems to grow "over 20 percent this calendar year"; in May, to "grow more than 30 percent in calendar 2026"; in August it said it was "further raising our Semiconductor Systems revenue expectations for calendar 2026".
    Applied Materials second-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - the 15% dividend increase and the calendar-2026 outlook. — Q2 FY2026 · publ. 14 May 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIn February 2026 it expected Semiconductor Systems to grow "over 20 percent this calendar year"; in May, to "grow more than 30 percent in calendar 2026"; in August it said it was "further raising our Semiconductor Systems revenue expectations for calendar 2026".
    Applied Materials third-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - record revenue, segment results, revenue by geography, employees and fourth-quarter guidance - segment results and end-market mix. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 13 August 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedQuartz reported that the company "declined to provide a specific updated figure".
    Quartz on Applied Materials' third-quarter fiscal 2026 results - the company declined to give an updated calendar-2026 growth figure and the stock fell about 5% after hours. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 14 August 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedSemiconductor Systems revenue was $5,141 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, $5,965 million in the second and $7,040 million in the third.
    Applied Materials third-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - record revenue, segment results, revenue by geography, employees and fourth-quarter guidance - segment results and end-market mix. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 13 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedSemiconductor Systems revenue was $5,141 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, $5,965 million in the second and $7,040 million in the third.
    Applied Materials second-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - the 15% dividend increase and the calendar-2026 outlook. — Q2 FY2026 · publ. 14 May 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedSemiconductor Systems revenue was $5,141 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, $5,965 million in the second and $7,040 million in the third.
    Applied Materials first-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - the BIS charge, the EPIC Center and manufacturing capacity. — Q1 FY2026 · publ. 12 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe company said it had "increased our build plan, inventory positions and logistics capacity".
    Applied Materials second-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - the 15% dividend increase and the calendar-2026 outlook. — Q2 FY2026 · publ. 14 May 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedRevenue of $10,250 million plus or minus $500 million, with non-GAAP earnings per share of $4.02 plus or minus $0.20, would be about 12.5% above the record just set.
    Applied Materials third-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - record revenue, segment results, revenue by geography, employees and fourth-quarter guidance - highlights, income statement, cash flow, quotes and fourth-quarter guidance. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 13 August 2026 · source ↗
  10. Moat Explorer calcRevenue of $10,250 million plus or minus $500 million, with non-GAAP earnings per share of $4.02 plus or minus $0.20, would be about 12.5% above the record just set.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Applied Materials' reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Segment shares FY2025: Semiconductor Systems 20,798 / 28,368 = 73.3%; Applied Global Services 6,385 / 28,368 = 22.5%; Corporate and Other 1,185 / 28,368 = 4.2%. Segment operating margins FY2025: 7,379 / 20,798 = 35.5%; 1,792 / 6,385 = 28.1%; FY2024 6,981 / 19,911 = 35.1%, 1,812 / 6,225 = 29.1%; FY2023 6,879 / 19,698 = 34.9%, 1,529 / 5,732 = 26.7%. Q3 FY2026 margins: Semiconductor Systems 2,657 / 7,040 = 37.7%; Applied Global Services 536 / 1,781 = 30.1%; company operating margin 3,075 / 9,115 = 33.7%. Q1 FY2026 Semiconductor Systems 1,427 / 5,141 = 27.8%. Nine months FY2026 6,176 / 18,146 = 34.0% and 1,461 / 5,005 = 29.2%. Growth Q3 FY2026: Semiconductor Systems 7,040 / 5,564 - 1 = 26.5% year on year and 7,040 / 5,965 - 1 = 18.0% on the quarter; Applied Global Services 1,781 / 1,463 - 1 = 21.7%; revenue 9,115 / 7,910 - 1 = 15.2% on the quarter; United States revenue 1,367 / 683 - 1 = 100%; Europe 483 / 160 = 3.0 times. Nine months: 18,146 / 16,562 - 1 = 9.6%; 5,005 / 4,236 - 1 = 18.2%. Segment history, revenue: Semiconductor Systems 11,367 (FY2020), 16,286, 18,797, 19,698, 19,911, 20,798 (FY2025), compound growth (20,798 / 11,367)^(1/5) - 1 = 12.8% a year; Applied Global Services 4,155, 5,013, 5,543, 5,732, 6,225, 6,385, compound growth (6,385 / 4,155)^(1/5) - 1 = 9.0% a year, 6,385 / 5,732 - 1 = 11.4% over two years; Corporate and Other including Display 1,607 + 73 = 1,680 (FY2020), 1,634 + 130 = 1,764 (FY2021), 1,331 + 114 = 1,445 (FY2022), 868 + 219 = 1,087, 885 + 155 = 1,040, 1,185 (FY2025); 1,185 / 1,680 - 1 = -29%. Display operating margin 235 / 1,060 = 22% (FY2025) and 51 / 885 = 6% (FY2024). DRAM equipment 26% x 20,798 = about 5,400; flash 7% x 20,798 = about 1,460. Company margins: gross 13,808 / 28,368 = 48.7% (FY2025), 12,897 / 27,176 = 47.5% (FY2024), 12,384 / 26,517 = 46.7% (FY2023); operating 8,289 / 28,368 = 29.2%. R&D 3,570 / 28,368 = 12.6%; 3,570 / 1,451 = 2.5 times (FY2015-FY2025). Effective tax 2,273 / 9,271 = 24.5% (FY2025) and 975 / 8,152 = 12.0% (FY2024). Revenue FY2019 14,608 / 16,705 - 1 = -12.6%. Diluted shares 808 / 1,226 - 1 = -34%. Revenue outside the United States 25,305 / 28,368 = 89%. China share of revenue: 5,456 / 17,202 = 31.7% (FY2020); 7,535 / 23,063 = 32.7%; 7,254 / 25,785 = 28.1%; 7,247 / 26,517 = 27.3%; 10,117 / 27,176 = 37.2% (FY2024); 8,529 / 28,368 = 30.1% (FY2025). Taiwan 6,857 / 4,010 - 1 = 71%. Two largest customers 19% + 15% = 34% (FY2025) and 20% + 14% = 34% (nine months FY2026). Backlog: 15,002 / 19,011 - 1 = -21% (October 2022 to October 2025); Semiconductor Systems 7,105 / 12,691 - 1 = -44%; Applied Global Services 7,141 / 5,643 - 1 = +27%; shares of backlog 7,141 / 15,002 = 48% and 7,105 / 15,002 = 47%. Contract liabilities 3,271 / 2,566 - 1 = +27%; receivables 7,691 / 5,185 - 1 = +48%. Cash: net cash 7,241 + 1,332 - 100 - 6,455 = 2,018 (October 2025); 8,022 + 1,449 - 799 - 5,460 = 3,212 (October 2024); 7,037 + 2,196 - 1,299 - 5,245 = 2,689 (July 2026). Payout 1,384 / 6,998 = 19.8%; dividends plus buybacks 1,384 + 4,893 = 6,277, 6,277 / 7,958 = 79% of operating cash flow. ROE 6,998 / ((20,415 + 19,001) / 2) = 35.5% (FY2025), 40.6% (FY2024), 48.0% (FY2023). Trailing twelve months to July 2026: revenue 6,800 + 24,037 = 30,837; net income 1,897 + 7,370 = 9,267; operating cash flow 2,828 + 5,568 = 8,396; capital expenditure 785 + 1,988 = 2,773. Implied FY2026 revenue at the guidance midpoint 24,037 + 10,250 = 34,287, 34,287 / 28,368 - 1 = 20.9%; fourth-quarter midpoint 10,250 / 6,800 - 1 = 50.7%; implied non-GAAP EPS 8.73 + 4.02 = 12.75. Market: 376,360 / 9,267 = 40.6 times trailing earnings; 376,360 / 30,837 = 12.2 times sales; price 474.25 / 723.00 - 1 = -34.4%; Lam Research 384.36 - 376.36 = 8.00 bn more market value. ASML 662.45 / 376.36 = 1.8 times; KLA 246.05 / 376.36 = 0.65. Calendar year-end 2025 P/E 203,780 / 6,998 = 29.1; fiscal year-end P/E 40.91 / 11.83 = 3.5 times the FY2022 low. Other: services growth FY2025 6,385 / 6,225 - 1 = 2.6%; company revenue 28,368 / 27,176 - 1 = 4.4%; dividends 1,384 / 7,958 = 17.4% of operating cash flow; two largest customers FY2024 12% + 11% = 23%; Korea 1,521 / 1,160 - 1 = 31%; Semiconductor Systems 20,798 / 11,367 = 1.83 times (FY2020-FY2025); Display 1,060 / 1,607 - 1 = -34%; net income 6,998 / 1,377 = 5.1 times and EPS 8.66 / 1.12 = 7.7 times (FY2015-FY2025); revenue 28,368 / 9,659 = 2.9 times; balance sheet build July 2026 6,564 + 7,691 + 5,606 = 19,861; Display revenue excluded from Corporate and Other FY2025 1,185 - 1,060 = 125. Revenue FY2024 27,176 / 26,517 - 1 = 2.5%; R&D Q4 917 / 858 - 1 = 6.9%; revenue 30,837 / 25,785 - 1 = 19.6% (FY2022 to trailing July 2026); strategic investment gains 755 + 949 = 1,704; China less Taiwan nine months 6,688 - 5,902 = 786; forward earnings implied 40.91 / 26.95 = 1.52 times trailing; Q4 guide 10,250 / 9,115 - 1 = 12.5% above Q3. Memory share of systems revenue: DRAM plus flash 19% + 21% = 40% (FY2021), 17% + 6% = 23% (FY2023), 26% + 7% = 33% (FY2025). Market value 376,360 / 182,232 = 2.07 times the FY2025 year-end value; trailing net income 9,267 / 6,998 - 1 = 32%. Operating income 8,289 / 1,693 = 4.9 times (FY2015-FY2025). P/E gap to Lam 57.7 - 40.9 = 16.8. Q3 FY2026 returns 860 / 3,037 = 28% of operating cash flow. China plus Taiwan nine months (6,688 + 5,902) / 24,037 = 52%. Systems revenue Q1 to Q3 FY2026 7,040 / 5,141 - 1 = 37%. Systems share of segment operating income FY2025 7,379 / (7,379 + 1,792) = 7,379 / 9,171 = 80%. Systems R&D 3,042 / 20,798 = 14.6%. Third quarter share of nine-month systems profit 2,657 / 6,176 = 43%. Services FY2024 6,225 / 5,732 - 1 = 8.6%. Services share of backlog 4,335 / 11,758 = 37% (October 2021). Research per diluted share 1,451 / 1,226 = 1.18 (FY2015) and 3,570 / 808 = 4.42 (FY2025). Net cash plus long-term investments 2,689 + 5,268 = 7,957. Dividends per share 1.78 / 1.22 - 1 = 46%. ROE 35.5% / 10% = 3.5 times - segment shares, margins and growth - segment revenue shares and growth. — FY2015-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Applied Materials' Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  11. ReportedFirst-quarter revenue was $7,012 million, down 2%, when China restrictions and the settlement weighed.
    Applied Materials first-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - the BIS charge, the EPIC Center and manufacturing capacity. — Q1 FY2026 · publ. 12 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026