Commodity CFDsThin moat

XTB (XTB) — moat facet

Gold and commodity volatility turned one class into three-quarters of the business in six months.

Commodity CFDs are contracts on commodity prices, on which XTB quotes a price and usually takes the other side. They brought gross gain of 896,7 million złoty in 2024 and 923,7 million in 2025 1, 43,7% of the total 2.

Commodity CFD gross gain by quarter (zl m)213,1Q2 2025965,7Q1 2026589,3Q2 2026XTB H1 2026 report note 6,1; Q1 2026 is H1 less Q2
In the first quarter of 2026 commodity CFDs earned more than in all of 2025.

In 2026 they became almost the whole business. Commodity CFDs brought 1 555,0 million złoty in the first half, against 379,9 million a year earlier, and 75,3% of all gross gain 3. The first quarter alone was about 965,7 million and the second 589,3 million 4.

The line is earned from retail clients: in 2025 the retail segment made 933,2 million on commodity CFDs and the institutional segment lost 9,5 million 5.

What drives it is volatility and client positioning in a handful of markets, not a price XTB sets. XTB reported profitability of 484 złoty per lot in the second quarter of 2026 6.

The line is the reason the first half of 2026 is not a guide to the second. The number to watch is commodity CFDs' share of gross gain: 75,3% in the first half. A fall back toward the third it was in 2024 and 2025 would bring earnings back to their ordinary level.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Gross gain of 1 555,0 million złoty in H1 2026 against 379,9 million, on commodity-market volatility XTB does not control.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Commodity CFD gross gain, latest quarter
589,3m zł in Q2 2026, from 213,1m zł

A fall back toward a third of gross gain would return earnings to their ordinary level.

Source: XTB half-year report, H1 2026 ↗
References
  1. ReportedThey brought gross gain of 896,7 million złoty in 2024 and 923,7 million in 2025 , 43,7% of the total .
    XTB Group consolidated annual report 2025 - note 5,1 result of operations in financial instruments by class (2025, 2024); segment statement by instrument class (retail, institutional); revenue build-up — FY2024-FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcThey brought gross gain of 896,7 million złoty in 2024 and 923,7 million in 2025 , 43,7% of the total .
    Moat Explorer calculation from XTB's note 5,1 (2025) and note 6,1 (H1 2026): shares of gross gain by class, Q1 2026 as H1 less Q2, growth rates — FY2025-H1 2026 · publ. 2026-09-23 · source ↗
  3. ReportedCommodity CFDs brought 1 555,0 million złoty in the first half, against 379,9 million a year earlier, and 75,3% of all gross gain .
    XTB Group half-year report for the first half of 2026 - note 6,1 result of operations in financial instruments by class for Q2 and H1 2026 and 2025 — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcThe first quarter alone was about 965,7 million and the second 589,3 million .
    Moat Explorer calculation from XTB's note 5,1 (2025) and note 6,1 (H1 2026): shares of gross gain by class, Q1 2026 as H1 less Q2, growth rates — FY2025-H1 2026 · publ. 2026-09-23 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe line is earned from retail clients: in 2025 the retail segment made 933,2 million on commodity CFDs and the institutional segment lost 9,5 million .
    XTB Group consolidated annual report 2025 - note 5,1 result of operations in financial instruments by class (2025, 2024); segment statement by instrument class (retail, institutional); revenue build-up — FY2024-FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedXTB reported profitability of 484 złoty per lot in the second quarter of 2026 .
    XTB results presentation for the first half of 2026 - profitability per lot, client assets — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026