⚠ Free Is Not a Price FloorHigh threat

XTB (XTB) — threat to the moat

The floor is set by whoever has the most other ways to make money, and XTB's other way is the one regulators keep narrowing.

Zero-commission share dealing is not a position XTB can defend, because it is not a position XTB reached first and it is not one that requires a brokerage licence to sustain.

Who else can price dealing at zero, 2025 revenueUSD 6,0bnRevolut groupUSD 876mRevolut wealth armUSD 869meToroUSD 571mXTBUSD 349mTrading 212 UKTrading is 14,7 per cent of Revolut. For XTB it is the entire reason the account exists
The floor is set by whoever has the most other ways to make money.

Trading 212 built a business on commission-free dealing and grew United Kingdom revenue 72 per cent in 2025 to 277,6 million pounds with four and a half million funded accounts.1 Revolut offers trading inside a current account used by more than seventy million people and earned 876 million dollars from its wealth arm alone.2 Trade Republic reached ten million customers and more than 150 billion euros of assets across eighteen European markets.3 Each of them can price dealing at zero indefinitely, because for two of the three the trade is not the product.

That is the structural problem with competing on free. The floor is set by whoever has the most other ways to make money, and XTB, whose other way is a market-making book that regulators keep narrowing, is not that firm. The 100 000-euro threshold is itself an acknowledgement: the free offer has a boundary because the economics need one.4

There is a second risk in the direction of travel. The European ban on payment for order flow from 30 June 2026 removes one of the ways the zero-commission platforms monetise, which may push some of them toward charging — or toward the interest and currency-conversion revenue XTB is relying on for the same assets.5

Divide gross gain on shares and funds by the client assets that produced it. In 2025 that is 78 million złoty against 27 284 million: twenty-nine basis points.6

References
  1. Third-party estimateTrading 212 built a business on commission-free dealing and grew United Kingdom revenue 72 per cent in 2025 to 277,6 million pounds with four and a half million funded accounts.
    Trading 212 UK Limited results for the year ended 31 December 2025 as reported by FinanceFeeds - revenue of 277,6 million pounds against 161,7 million, an increase of 72%, of which trading revenues were 256,9 million and net client interest income 20,6 million; profit before tax of 123,1 million pounds against 52,8 million and net profit of 92,2 million; around 4,5 million funded customer accounts of which 3 million in the United Kingdom, and roughly 25 billion pounds of client assets under administration; funded accounts up 69% and the average number of monthly active users up 84% — FY2025 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedRevolut offers trading inside a current account used by more than seventy million people and earned 876 million dollars from its wealth arm alone.
    Revolut Group Holdings Ltd annual report 2025 - group revenues up 46% to 6,0 billion US dollars from 4,0 billion, with profit before tax of 2,3 billion, up 57%; more than 70 million retail customers and around 0,8 million businesses, up 30% and 33% respectively; Wealth revenue, which includes equities and cryptocurrency trading, up 31% to 876 million dollars from 647 million and 14,7% of total revenue; total customer balances up 66% to 67,5 billion dollars from 38 billion; eleven product lines each exceeding approximately 135 million dollars of revenue, with subscriptions turnover of 936 million, card payments up 45% to 1,3 billion and foreign exchange up 43% to 800 million — FY2025 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  3. Third-party estimateTrade Republic reached ten million customers and more than 150 billion euros of assets across eighteen European markets.
    Trade Republic customer and asset figures as reported by Finance Magnates and Business Wire - the Berlin broker surpassed 10 million customers across 18 European markets with more than 150 billion euros in assets under management as of September 2025, having reported 8 million customers and 100 billion euros across 17 countries in January 2025; the company reported a valuation of 12,5 billion euros after a secondary share sale in December 2025 — 2025 · publ. 2025 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe 100 000-euro threshold is itself an acknowledgement: the free offer has a boundary because the economics need one.
    XTB Group Management Board report on activities in 2025, business model and competitive landscape - the model "combines the features of an agency model with a market maker model, in which the Company is a party to transactions concluded and initiated by clients"; "XTB operates as a market-maker, meaning it is the counterparty to a client's transaction"; "XTB executes all transactions in shares, ETFs, and CFDs based on these assets directly on regulated markets or alternative trading systems. XTB is not a market maker for this class of instruments"; the competitive environment divided into trading platform providers (eToro, Trading 212, Robinhood), fintech companies (Trade Republic, Scalable Capital, Revolut) and CFD-only brokers (Plus500, IG Group, CMC Markets, Saxo Bank), with Polish bank-affiliated brokerages named as mBank Biuro Maklerskie, Santander Biuro Maklerskie, Dom Maklerski Banku Ochrony Srodowiska (BOSSA), PKO BP Biuro Maklerskie, ING Securities and Bank Pekao S.A. Biuro Maklerskie, and XTB described as a market leader in Poland; the planned European ban on the payment-for-order-flow model from 2026; key competitive advantages listed as a wide product range including stocks, ETFs, Investment Plans and CFDs plus interest on free funds, an eWallet with a multi-currency card and long-term savings accounts IKE (Poland), ISA (United Kingdom) and PEA (France); the proprietary xStation platform and XTB mobile app; no commissions up to EUR 100 000 turnover on stocks and ETFs and no withdrawal fees; operations in over 15 countries; regulation by nine financial authorities including the FCA and KNF; client fund segregation; 24/5 support; and the XTB Academy. Brand ambassadors Mads Mikkelsen (2016-2018), Conor McGregor and Iker Casillas (2022-2024) and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (2024-2026); nearly PLN 585 million allocated to marketing in 2025, up 69,6%, including the largest campaign in the group's history launched in September 2025 across 13 markets including Poland, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Chile, the Middle East and Indonesia, and sponsorship at Roland Garros and Wimbledon; the XTB brand dating from 2009 and the word "trading" replaced by "investing" in 2023 — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe European ban on payment for order flow from 30 June 2026 removes one of the ways the zero-commission platforms monetise, which may push some of them toward charging — or toward the interest and currency-conversion revenue XTB is relying on for the same assets.
    XTB results presentation for the first half of 2026, operational data - quarterly series for Q2 2026, Q1 2026, Q4 2025, Q3 2025, Q2 2025, Q1 2025, Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 in that order: total operating income 992 558, 1 094 018, 609 344, 375 821, 580 597, 580 294, 465 416 and 470 234 thousand złoty; transaction volume in CFD instruments in nominal value 1 029 179, 1 333 410, 1 605 005, 1 118 278, 1 144 554, 937 867, 727 854 and 695 315 million dollars; profitability for USD 1 million of transaction volume 238, 216, 93, 84, 128, 144, 147 and 167 dollars; transaction volume in CFD instruments 1 831 627, 2 323 204, 2 542 526, 2 094 296, 2 321 584, 1 907 974, 1 657 390 and 1 627 978 lots; profitability per lot 484, 439, 208, 152, 229, 277, 253 and 272 złoty; marketing expenses 200 081, 235 429, 179 195, 141 495, 123 322, 141 034, 116 855 and 71 613 thousand złoty with client acquisition cost 0,7, 0,9, 0,7, 0,7, 0,7, 0,7, 0,7 and 0,6 thousand złoty; structure of the gross result in H1 2026 Commodity CFDs 75,3%, Index CFDs 13,9%, Currency CFDs 5,0% and other 5,8%, against H1 2025 Index CFDs 46,3%, Commodity CFDs 33,1%, Currency CFDs 15,6% and other 5,0%; share of CFD turnover by trading platform for the same eight quarters: xStation 30, 29, 29, 27, 35, 37, 36 and 38 per cent, xStation Mobile 61, 60, 64, 62, 59, 56, 56 and 57 per cent and MT4 9, 11, 7, 11, 6, 7, 9 and 8 per cent; own cash 2 934 090 at 30 June 2026 against 1 994 027 at 31 December 2025, up 47,1%, with no bonds; dividend per share of 1,5 for 2021, 4,86 for 2022, 5,02 for 2023, 5,45 for 2024 and 4,07 for 2025, the 2025 dividend being PLN 478,5 million or 75% of standalone net profit with a record date of 15 June 2026 and payment on 24 June 2026 — Q3 2024 - Q2 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. Moat Explorer calcIn 2025 that is 78 million złoty against 27 284 million: twenty-nine basis points.
    Moat Explorer calculations from XTB's published figures. Correlations across the eight quarters from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026 between operating income (470 234, 465 416, 580 294, 580 597, 375 821, 609 344, 1 094 018 and 992 558 thousand złoty) and, first, CFD turnover in lots (1 627 978, 1 657 390, 1 907 974, 2 321 584, 2 094 296, 2 542 526, 2 323 204 and 1 831 627) giving 0,25, second, CFD notional in dollars (695 315, 727 854, 937 867, 1 144 554, 1 118 278, 1 605 005, 1 333 410 and 1 029 179 million) giving 0,37, and third, profitability per lot (272, 253, 277, 229, 152, 208, 439 and 484 złoty) giving 0,92; the ranges over those quarters are 1,56 times for lots, 2,31 times for notional, 3,18 times for profitability per lot and 2,91 times for operating income. Annually from 2019 to 2025 the correlation between CFD turnover in lots and operating income is 0,96. Market capitalisation of 16 970 million złoty is 144,34 złoty multiplied by 117 569 251 shares, which against trailing twelve-month revenue of 3 071,5 million złoty (2 146,056 less 1 160,891 plus 2 086,324) gives 5,53 times sales, and against trailing net profit of 1 261,4 million (644,199 less 410,052 plus 1 027,240) gives 13,45 times earnings and earnings per share of 10,73. Historic price-earnings ratios are year-end share price multiplied by 117,569 million shares divided by net profit: 8,15, 5,23, 8,31, 4,76, 5,62, 9,66 and 13,10 for 2019 to 2025, with price-to-sales of 1,97, 2,64, 3,16, 2,51, 2,75, 4,42 and 3,93. XTB's 2025 operating income of 2 146,056 million złoty converts to 570,9 million dollars at the National Bank of Poland's 2025 average rate of 3,7588, giving 480 dollars per active client across 1 189 397 active clients against Plus500's 3 268 dollars across 242 440, a ratio of 6,8 times, while Plus500's revenue of 792,4 million dollars is 39 per cent more than XTB's. Client instruments of 43 363 639 thousand złoty across 2 825 700 clients is 15 346 złoty each, against 12 603 at 31 December 2025 and 10 048 at 31 December 2024; 43 363 639 thousand złoty converts to 8,6 billion pounds at 5,03 złoty to the pound, or 3 051 pounds a client, against Trading 212's 25 billion pounds across 4,5 million funded accounts, or 5 556 each. Gross gain on stocks and ETPs as a share of gross gain on CFDs is 0,7 per cent for 2023 (11 050 over 1 622 633), 1,7 per cent for 2024 (30 654 over 1 837 173) and 3,8 per cent for 2025 (78 310 over 2 035 006); as a share of client instruments held, 78 310 over 27 283 557 is 29 basis points. Marketing divided by salaries is 0,44 in 2019 (37 716 over 86 024), 1,42 in 2025 (584 898 over 413 019) and 1,76 in the first half of 2026 (435 510 over 246 964). Revenue per employee is 1,54 million złoty for 2023 (1 618 385 over 1 054), 1,51 million for 2024 (1 873 436 over 1 245), 1,42 million for 2025 (2 146 056 over 1 516) and 2,70 million annualised for the first half of 2026 (4 172 648 over 1 548). Poland's share of operating income is 46,7 per cent in 2023, 52,7 in 2024, 54,4 in 2025 and 57,4 per cent in the first half of 2026 (1 197 033 over 2 086 324). Net interest income is 3,1 per cent of 2024 revenue and 3,6 per cent of 2025 revenue; the share of interest kept is 78 per cent of 140,1 million less 62,1 million, or 56 per cent. Institutional revenue is 2,0 per cent of 2025 operating income (42 524 over 2 146 056) and was 8,7 per cent in 2019 (20 847 over 239 304). Second-quarter 2026 net profit of 1 027 240 less 535 042 is 492 198 against 216 129 a year earlier, a rise of 127,7 per cent, while the sequential fall from 535 042 is 8,0 per cent. The 2018 to 2019 declines are 17,0 per cent in operating income and 43,1 per cent in net profit — FY2019-H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026