⚠ The Hedge Went Down as the Bet Went UpHigh threat

XTB (XTB) — threat to the moat

Retained exposure is invisible on the way in and enormous on the way out, and it is disclosed twice a year as a single percentage.

Between 31 December 2025 and 30 June 2026 the share of XTB's derivative notional transacted with outside brokers fell from 16 per cent to 8 per cent.1 Over the same six months commodity contracts went from a third of gross gain to three quarters, and net profit went from 644 million złoty for the whole of 2025 to 1 027 million for the half.2

Transactions with outside brokers, share of derivative notional14%31 Dec 202416%31 Dec 20258%30 Jun 2026Net profit over the same three periods: 857m zł, 644m zł, then 1 027m zł in one half
The lowest hedge in the series came with the largest profit in the series.

Those facts are related and the relationship is uncomfortable. Hedging less means keeping more of the other side of the client book. In a half-year when the clients were, in aggregate, wrong about commodities, keeping more of that exposure was extremely profitable. It was also the decision that would have magnified the loss had they been right.

Nothing about it is hidden or improper. XTB operates a limit framework covering maximum open position per instrument, currency exposure and single-order size, and the report describes hedges being entered when limits are exceeded.3 But the limits are set internally4 by the same management that reports the profit, and the disclosure is a single percentage published twice a year with no explanation of what drove it.

An investor looking at 1 027 million złoty of half-year profit is looking at the outcome of a risk decision without being told what the decision was.5 Retained exposure is invisible on the way in and enormous on the way out, which is the standard shape of every market-making accident that has ever happened.

Three balance-sheet dates, three readings: 14 per cent, 16, and 8.6 The lowest came with the largest profit, which is the whole point.

References
  1. ReportedBetween 31 December 2025 and 30 June 2026 the share of XTB's derivative notional transacted with outside brokers fell from 16 per cent to 8 per cent.
    XTB Group half-year report for the first half of 2026, notes - nominal value of derivative financial instruments at 30 June 2026 and 31 December 2025: Index CFDs 3 642 905 and 3 933 252; Commodity CFDs 3 967 775 and 6 216 958; Currency CFDs 2 204 780 and 3 284 496; Stock and ETF CFDs 1 767 315 and 1 615 397; Bond CFDs 4 118 and 1 553; Options 125 478 and nil; total 11 712 371 and 15 051 656, and as at 30 June 2026 transactions with brokers represent 8% of the total nominal value of instruments against 16% at 31 December 2025; clients' financial instruments at 30 June 2026 and 31 December 2025: listed stocks and rights to stocks 23 345 382 and 15 138 542; ETFs 20 018 050 and 12 144 808; other securities 207 and 207; total 43 363 639 and 27 283 557; amounts due to clients: retail 7 023 586 and 6 428 875, institutional 100 955 and 99 348, total 7 124 541 and 6 528 223; contributions to the compensation scheme with a closing balance of 28 338 against 23 981; total employment at 30 June 2026 of 1 548 people against 1 516 at 31 December 2025; XXZW Investment Group S.A. holding 42 067 329 shares or 35,78% at 30 June 2026; XTB Lithuania UAB incorporated with no operations yet; dividends of 478 507 thousand złoty paid in the period — H1 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedOver the same six months commodity contracts went from a third of gross gain to three quarters, and net profit went from 644 million złoty for the whole of 2025 to 1 027 million for the half.
    XTB Group half-year report for the first half of 2026, income statement and geography - total operating income 2 086 324 against 1 160 891, up 79,7%, with the second quarter at 992 558 against the first quarter's 1 094 018, down 9,3%; profit on operating activities 1 202 271 against 552 163, up 117,7%; finance costs (607) against (85 087); profit before tax 1 255 368 against 495 343; income tax (228 128) against (85 291); net profit 1 027 240 against 410 052, up 150,5%, with the second quarter at 492 198; marketing (435 510) against (264 356), up 64,7%; salaries and employee benefits (246 964) against (192 700); total operating expenses (884 053) against (608 728), up 45,2%; operating income by geography for the six months to 30 June 2026 and 30 June 2025: Central and Eastern Europe 1 524 434 and 757 411, including Poland 1 197 033 and 605 985; Western Europe 402 163 and 237 381; Latin America 60 125 and 98 711; Middle East 99 577 and 67 388; Asia 25 and nil; the country from which the Group derives 20% and over of its revenue is Poland; net gain by class for the six months: CFD instruments 1 982 414 against 1 112 043 and other instruments 82 940 against 36 128, giving a gross result of 2 065 371 against 1 148 171; interest income on clients' cash 45 978 against 34 713; commission and fee income 15 975 against 9 520 — H1 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedXTB operates a limit framework covering maximum open position per instrument, currency exposure and single-order size, and the report describes hedges being entered when limits are exceeded.
    XTB Group consolidated financial statements for 2025, risk management - the Group's key market risk management objective is to mitigate the impact of such risk on the profitability of its operations; as part of the internal procedures the Group applies limits to mitigate market risk connected with maintaining open positions on financial instruments, in particular a maximum open position on a given instrument, currency exposure limits and a maximum value of a single instruction; the Trading Department monitors open positions subject to limits on a current basis and, in case of excesses, enters into appropriate hedging transactions, while the Risk Control Department reviews limit usage on a regular basis and controls the hedges entered into; currency risk arises because the Group enters into transactions principally in instruments bearing currency risk, offers instruments priced in foreign currencies, and holds assets in foreign currencies including the brokerage's own funds held for settling transactions in foreign markets; the Legal and Compliance Department is responsible for legal and compliance risks with a Compliance Officer proactively managing compliance risk and supporting business units in interpreting the regulatory environment including the requirements of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority and the European Securities and Markets Authority — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedBut the limits are set internally by the same management that reports the profit, and the disclosure is a single percentage published twice a year with no explanation of what drove it.
    XTB Group consolidated financial statements for 2025, risk management - the Group's key market risk management objective is to mitigate the impact of such risk on the profitability of its operations; as part of the internal procedures the Group applies limits to mitigate market risk connected with maintaining open positions on financial instruments, in particular a maximum open position on a given instrument, currency exposure limits and a maximum value of a single instruction; the Trading Department monitors open positions subject to limits on a current basis and, in case of excesses, enters into appropriate hedging transactions, while the Risk Control Department reviews limit usage on a regular basis and controls the hedges entered into; currency risk arises because the Group enters into transactions principally in instruments bearing currency risk, offers instruments priced in foreign currencies, and holds assets in foreign currencies including the brokerage's own funds held for settling transactions in foreign markets; the Legal and Compliance Department is responsible for legal and compliance risks with a Compliance Officer proactively managing compliance risk and supporting business units in interpreting the regulatory environment including the requirements of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority and the European Securities and Markets Authority — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedAn investor looking at 1 027 million złoty of half-year profit is looking at the outcome of a risk decision without being told what the decision was.
    XTB Group half-year report for the first half of 2026, income statement and geography - total operating income 2 086 324 against 1 160 891, up 79,7%, with the second quarter at 992 558 against the first quarter's 1 094 018, down 9,3%; profit on operating activities 1 202 271 against 552 163, up 117,7%; finance costs (607) against (85 087); profit before tax 1 255 368 against 495 343; income tax (228 128) against (85 291); net profit 1 027 240 against 410 052, up 150,5%, with the second quarter at 492 198; marketing (435 510) against (264 356), up 64,7%; salaries and employee benefits (246 964) against (192 700); total operating expenses (884 053) against (608 728), up 45,2%; operating income by geography for the six months to 30 June 2026 and 30 June 2025: Central and Eastern Europe 1 524 434 and 757 411, including Poland 1 197 033 and 605 985; Western Europe 402 163 and 237 381; Latin America 60 125 and 98 711; Middle East 99 577 and 67 388; Asia 25 and nil; the country from which the Group derives 20% and over of its revenue is Poland; net gain by class for the six months: CFD instruments 1 982 414 against 1 112 043 and other instruments 82 940 against 36 128, giving a gross result of 2 065 371 against 1 148 171; interest income on clients' cash 45 978 against 34 713; commission and fee income 15 975 against 9 520 — H1 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThree balance-sheet dates, three readings: 14 per cent, 16, and 8.
    XTB Group consolidated financial statements for 2025, balance sheet, off-balance-sheet items, employment, capital and shareholders - nominal value of derivative financial instruments at 31 December 2025 and 31 December 2024: Index CFDs 3 933 252 and 3 766 277; Commodity CFDs 6 216 958 and 3 705 548; Currency CFDs 3 284 496 and 2 952 168; Stock and ETF CFDs 1 615 397 and 1 169 077; Bond CFDs 1 553 and 11 126; total 15 051 656 and 11 604 196, of which transactions with brokers represent 16% at 31 December 2025 and 14% at 31 December 2024; clients' financial instruments held in brokerage accounts: listed stocks and rights to stocks 15 138 542 and 7 907 437; ETFs 12 144 808 and 5 773 953; other securities 207 and 207; total 27 283 557 and 13 681 597; contributions made to the compensation scheme with an opening balance of 17 923 and a closing balance of 23 981; total employment in the Group at 31 December 2025 of 1 516 people against 1 245 at 31 December 2024, including persons under employment contract and other forms of civil law contract including B2B; the Parent Company supervised by the Polish Financial Supervision Authority under a permit dated 8 November 2005, No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005, registered in the National Court Register under KRS 0000217580 with its seat at ul. Prosta 67, 00-838 Warszawa; foreign branches in the Czech Republic, Spain, Slovakia, Romania, Germany, France and Portugal; subsidiaries including XTB International Ltd (Belize), XTB MENA Limited and XTB Financial Services L.L.C (United Arab Emirates), PT XTB Indonesia Berjangka (90%), XTB Agente de Valores SpA (Chile), XTB Services Limited (Cyprus), X Open Hub Sp. z o.o. (Poland), XTB S.C. Limited (Seychelles), XTB Africa (PTY) Ltd (South Africa) and a Turkish entity in liquidation, with XTB Digital Ltd of Cyprus liquidated in September 2025; share capital of 117 383 635 series A shares and 185 616 series B shares of nominal value PLN 0,05, each carrying one vote with no preference; XXZW Investment Group S.A. of Luxembourg, controlled by Jakub Zablocki, holding 51 472 869 shares or 43,78% at 1 January 2025 and 42 067 329 shares or 35,78% at 31 December 2025, which gives the company control even though it holds less than 50%; dividends of 640 753 thousand złoty paid during 2025 — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026