⚠ Salaries Stopped Being the Biggest CostModerate threat

XTB (XTB) — threat to the moat

A company whose largest cost is engineering compounds after the spending stops; one whose largest cost is advertising does not.

The clearest way to see what XTB has become is to line up its two largest expenses over six years. Marketing against salaries: 38 against 86 million złoty in 2019, then 585 against 413 in 2025, then 436 against 247 in the first half of 2026 alone. Advertising is now more than three quarters again as large as the entire payroll.

Revenue per employee, PLN million202320242025Headcount 1 054 then 1 245 then 1,516, growing faster than revenue two years running
Two consecutive falls, because people are being added faster than income.

The danger in that is not the level, it is what the level implies about where growth comes from. A company whose largest cost is engineering compounds by making the product better, and the benefit persists after the spending stops. A company whose largest cost is advertising compounds by buying customers, and the benefit stops when the spending does. XTB's own figures say which it is: 864 286 new clients in 2025 at a cost of about 700 złoty each, 703 333 in the first half of 2026 at about 600.1

The second-order risk is the ratchet. Marketing rose 69,6 per cent in 2025 while revenue rose 14,6 per cent, and the acquisition cost held roughly flat, which means the additional spending bought additional clients at the same price rather than better clients or cheaper ones.2 A budget of that shape is very hard to reduce: cutting it stops the client growth that is the whole equity story, immediately and visibly, in the next quarterly key-performance table.

There is no evidence yet of diminishing returns at the margin, and that is precisely what would show up first.

Set the cost of a client against what a client produces. In 2020 those were 800 and 7 400 złoty.3 In 2025 they were 700 and 1 800.4

References
  1. ReportedXTB's own figures say which it is: 864 286 new clients in 2025 at a cost of about 700 złoty each, 703 333 in the first half of 2026 at about 600.
    XTB results presentation for the first half of 2026, client key performance indicators - new clients 333 292 and 370 041 in the two quarters of 2026, 703 333 for the half against 361 643, up 94,5%; active clients 1 489 872 against 853 938, up 74,5%; clients in total 2 825 700 against 1 697 894, up 66,4%; net deposits 11 768 823 against 7 240 875, up 62,5%; average operating revenue per active client 1,4 in both halves and 0,7 in the second quarter against 0,9 in the first; average client acquisition cost 0,6 against 0,7; turnover of CFD instruments in lots 4 154 831 against 4 229 558, down 1,8% — H1 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedMarketing rose 69,6 per cent in 2025 while revenue rose 14,6 per cent, and the acquisition cost held roughly flat, which means the additional spending bought additional clients at the same price rather than better clients or cheaper ones.
    XTB results presentation for the first half of 2026, operational data - quarterly series for Q2 2026, Q1 2026, Q4 2025, Q3 2025, Q2 2025, Q1 2025, Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 in that order: total operating income 992 558, 1 094 018, 609 344, 375 821, 580 597, 580 294, 465 416 and 470 234 thousand złoty; transaction volume in CFD instruments in nominal value 1 029 179, 1 333 410, 1 605 005, 1 118 278, 1 144 554, 937 867, 727 854 and 695 315 million dollars; profitability for USD 1 million of transaction volume 238, 216, 93, 84, 128, 144, 147 and 167 dollars; transaction volume in CFD instruments 1 831 627, 2 323 204, 2 542 526, 2 094 296, 2 321 584, 1 907 974, 1 657 390 and 1 627 978 lots; profitability per lot 484, 439, 208, 152, 229, 277, 253 and 272 złoty; marketing expenses 200 081, 235 429, 179 195, 141 495, 123 322, 141 034, 116 855 and 71 613 thousand złoty with client acquisition cost 0,7, 0,9, 0,7, 0,7, 0,7, 0,7, 0,7 and 0,6 thousand złoty; structure of the gross result in H1 2026 Commodity CFDs 75,3%, Index CFDs 13,9%, Currency CFDs 5,0% and other 5,8%, against H1 2025 Index CFDs 46,3%, Commodity CFDs 33,1%, Currency CFDs 15,6% and other 5,0%; share of CFD turnover by trading platform for the same eight quarters: xStation 30, 29, 29, 27, 35, 37, 36 and 38 per cent, xStation Mobile 61, 60, 64, 62, 59, 56, 56 and 57 per cent and MT4 9, 11, 7, 11, 6, 7, 9 and 8 per cent; own cash 2 934 090 at 30 June 2026 against 1 994 027 at 31 December 2025, up 47,1%, with no bonds; dividend per share of 1,5 for 2021, 4,86 for 2022, 5,02 for 2023, 5,45 for 2024 and 4,07 for 2025, the 2025 dividend being PLN 478,5 million or 75% of standalone net profit with a record date of 15 June 2026 and payment on 24 June 2026 — Q3 2024 - Q2 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIn 2020 those were 800 and 7 400 złoty.
    XTB Group Management Board report on activities in 2025, synthetic summary of data for 2019-2025 (values for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2019 in that order): market value of the Company's shares at period end 71,8, 70,4, 37,8, 31,0, 16,8, 17,9 and 4,0 złoty; earnings per share 5,5, 7,3, 6,7, 6,5, 2,0, 3,4 and 0,5; equity 2 000,5, 2 003,6, 1 734,7, 1 506,1, 915,6, 888,3 and 490,7 million złoty; group total capital ratio 186,0, 192,3, 188,7, 218,1, 200,1, 200,1 and 165,8 per cent; EBITDA 857,8, 1 006,6, 941,4, 897,7, 285,7, 523,5 and 72,2 million złoty; EBITDA margin 40,0, 53,7, 58,2, 62,2, 45,7, 65,6 and 30,2 per cent; net profit margin 30,0, 45,7, 48,9, 53,0, 38,0, 50,4 and 24,1 per cent; return on equity 32,2, 45,8, 48,8, 63,3, 26,4, 58,3 and 12,2 per cent; return on assets 8,2, 15,1, 18,0, 21,1, 8,8, 23,5 and 5,5 per cent; new clients 864,3, 498,4, 312,0, 196,9, 189,2, 112,0 and 36,6 thousand; total clients 2 164,9, 1 361,6, 897,6, 614,9, 429,2, 255,8 and 149,3 thousand; active clients 1 189,4, 701,1, 418,4, 270,6, 193,2, 108,3 and 49,6 thousand; net deposits 14 672,3, 8 607,3, 3 793,7, 3 423,2, 2 933,4, 1 961,2 and 409,4 million złoty; average operating revenue per active client 1,8, 2,7, 3,9, 5,4, 3,2, 7,4 and 5,1 thousand złoty; average client acquisition cost 0,7, 0,7, 0,8, 1,1, 0,6, 0,8 and 1,0 thousand złoty; turnover in CFD derivative instruments 8 866,4, 6 274,2, 6 779,8, 6 592,9, 4 045,9, 3 113,4 and 1 638,6 thousand lots; profitability per lot 215, 275, 227, 212, 144, 249 and 140 złoty; stock and ETF volume in nominal value 21 812,5, 9 574,1, 4 512,7, 3 336,3, 4 437,3, 1 643,3 and 178,8 million dollars; turnover in CFD derivatives in notional value 4 805,7, 2 626,6, 2 285,9, 2 259,6, 1 737,4, 1 021,8 and 541,5 million dollars; standalone operating income 1 908,4 and net profit 638,9 million złoty; balance sheet total 9 086,7 million złoty — FY2019-FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIn 2025 they were 700 and 1 800.
    XTB Group Management Board report on activities in 2025, synthetic summary of data for 2019-2025 (values for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2019 in that order): market value of the Company's shares at period end 71,8, 70,4, 37,8, 31,0, 16,8, 17,9 and 4,0 złoty; earnings per share 5,5, 7,3, 6,7, 6,5, 2,0, 3,4 and 0,5; equity 2 000,5, 2 003,6, 1 734,7, 1 506,1, 915,6, 888,3 and 490,7 million złoty; group total capital ratio 186,0, 192,3, 188,7, 218,1, 200,1, 200,1 and 165,8 per cent; EBITDA 857,8, 1 006,6, 941,4, 897,7, 285,7, 523,5 and 72,2 million złoty; EBITDA margin 40,0, 53,7, 58,2, 62,2, 45,7, 65,6 and 30,2 per cent; net profit margin 30,0, 45,7, 48,9, 53,0, 38,0, 50,4 and 24,1 per cent; return on equity 32,2, 45,8, 48,8, 63,3, 26,4, 58,3 and 12,2 per cent; return on assets 8,2, 15,1, 18,0, 21,1, 8,8, 23,5 and 5,5 per cent; new clients 864,3, 498,4, 312,0, 196,9, 189,2, 112,0 and 36,6 thousand; total clients 2 164,9, 1 361,6, 897,6, 614,9, 429,2, 255,8 and 149,3 thousand; active clients 1 189,4, 701,1, 418,4, 270,6, 193,2, 108,3 and 49,6 thousand; net deposits 14 672,3, 8 607,3, 3 793,7, 3 423,2, 2 933,4, 1 961,2 and 409,4 million złoty; average operating revenue per active client 1,8, 2,7, 3,9, 5,4, 3,2, 7,4 and 5,1 thousand złoty; average client acquisition cost 0,7, 0,7, 0,8, 1,1, 0,6, 0,8 and 1,0 thousand złoty; turnover in CFD derivative instruments 8 866,4, 6 274,2, 6 779,8, 6 592,9, 4 045,9, 3 113,4 and 1 638,6 thousand lots; profitability per lot 215, 275, 227, 212, 144, 249 and 140 złoty; stock and ETF volume in nominal value 21 812,5, 9 574,1, 4 512,7, 3 336,3, 4 437,3, 1 643,3 and 178,8 million dollars; turnover in CFD derivatives in notional value 4 805,7, 2 626,6, 2 285,9, 2 259,6, 1 737,4, 1 021,8 and 541,5 million dollars; standalone operating income 1 908,4 and net profit 638,9 million złoty; balance sheet total 9 086,7 million złoty — FY2019-FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026