⚠ The Regulator Has Done This BeforeHigh threat

XTB (XTB) — threat to the moat

In 2018 a leverage cap took 80 per cent off a quarter's profit; contracts for difference are still 96 per cent of the gross gain.

On 1 August 2018 the European Securities and Markets Authority capped retail leverage on contracts for difference at 30:1 for the most liquid instruments and considerably lower elsewhere.1 XTB's third quarter of 2018 produced operating income of 47,6 million złoty against 73,1 million a year earlier, a fall of 35 per cent, and profit of 6,2 million against 31,3 million, a fall of 80 per cent.2 Including a 9,9 million administrative fine from the Polish supervisor in the same quarter, the group reported a net loss of 2,9 million.3

Before and after the 2018 leverage cap, PLN m288FY2018 income239FY2019 income101FY2018 net profit58FY2019 net profit6,2Q3 2018 profitQ3 2018 income fell 35 pc and profit 80 pc; a 9,9m zł fine made it a net loss
Two fifths of the earnings, removed by a committee, over two years.

The full-year damage was smaller and lasted longer. Operating income went from 288,3 million złoty in 2018 to 239,3 million in 2019, and net profit from 101,5 million to 57,7 million — down 43 per cent over two years in which the client base grew and nothing about the company changed.4

Eight years later the exposure is larger, not smaller. Contracts for difference produced 2 035 million złoty of gross gain in 2025, 96 per cent of the total, and 1 982 million in the first half of 2026 alone.5 XTB has rebranded from trading to investing, launched a Cash ISA and a savings wrapper in three countries, and accumulated 43 364 million złoty of client custody, and the derivative book is still essentially the whole income statement.6

The direction of European retail-investor regulation over two decades has been one way, and the current agenda is not idle: a ban on payment for order flow takes effect on 30 June 2026, national supervisors have restricted the advertising of leveraged products in several markets, and appropriateness testing has been tightened repeatedly.7

Nothing signals this in advance. The 2018 intervention was published, consulted on, and still arrived as a step change in one quarter, applied simultaneously across every member state — which is the arithmetic of a single market.8 There is no country XTB could retreat to inside Europe.

The number that quantifies it is the 2018 comparison, and it should be scaled up. A 35 per cent fall in operating income applied to the current run rate is more than a billion złoty a year, against a company earning 1 261 million.

The number that tests this threat
Reported
Total operating income, latest quarter
992,6m zł in Q2 2026, from 1 094,0m zł in Q1 and 375,8m zł in Q3 2025

A leverage cap cut revenue 35% in a quarter in 2018; quarterly income that swings threefold within a year shows how much a rule change could remove.

Source: XTB results presentation for the first half of 2026 ↗
References
  1. ReportedOn 1 August 2018 the European Securities and Markets Authority capped retail leverage on contracts for difference at 30:1 for the most liquid instruments and considerably lower elsewhere.
    XTB third-quarter 2018 results as reported by Finance Magnates - total operating income was PLN 47,6 million, a 35 per cent fall from PLN 73,1 million in the same period of 2017; profit fell by 80 per cent year on year from PLN 31,3 million in 2017 to PLN 6,2 million; total revenues from CFDs were PLN 47,3 million excluding a fine, against PLN 72,5 million a year earlier; currency CFD revenue of PLN 10,4 million was PLN 18,9 million or 64 per cent lower and commodity CFD revenue of PLN 27,9 million was PLN 22,3 million or 80 per cent higher; the broker received an administrative fine from the Polish Financial Supervision Authority of PLN 9,9 million, taking the quarter to a consolidated net loss of PLN 2,9 million; the European Securities and Markets Authority's rules effective from 1 August 2018 reduced leverage for retail customers to 30:1 or lower depending on the underlying asset — Q3 2018 · publ. 2018 · source ↗
  2. ReportedXTB's third quarter of 2018 produced operating income of 47,6 million złoty against 73,1 million a year earlier, a fall of 35 per cent, and profit of 6,2 million against 31,3 million, a fall of 80 per cent.
    XTB third-quarter 2018 results as reported by Finance Magnates - total operating income was PLN 47,6 million, a 35 per cent fall from PLN 73,1 million in the same period of 2017; profit fell by 80 per cent year on year from PLN 31,3 million in 2017 to PLN 6,2 million; total revenues from CFDs were PLN 47,3 million excluding a fine, against PLN 72,5 million a year earlier; currency CFD revenue of PLN 10,4 million was PLN 18,9 million or 64 per cent lower and commodity CFD revenue of PLN 27,9 million was PLN 22,3 million or 80 per cent higher; the broker received an administrative fine from the Polish Financial Supervision Authority of PLN 9,9 million, taking the quarter to a consolidated net loss of PLN 2,9 million; the European Securities and Markets Authority's rules effective from 1 August 2018 reduced leverage for retail customers to 30:1 or lower depending on the underlying asset — Q3 2018 · publ. 2018 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIncluding a 9,9 million administrative fine from the Polish supervisor in the same quarter, the group reported a net loss of 2,9 million.
    XTB third-quarter 2018 results as reported by Finance Magnates - total operating income was PLN 47,6 million, a 35 per cent fall from PLN 73,1 million in the same period of 2017; profit fell by 80 per cent year on year from PLN 31,3 million in 2017 to PLN 6,2 million; total revenues from CFDs were PLN 47,3 million excluding a fine, against PLN 72,5 million a year earlier; currency CFD revenue of PLN 10,4 million was PLN 18,9 million or 64 per cent lower and commodity CFD revenue of PLN 27,9 million was PLN 22,3 million or 80 per cent higher; the broker received an administrative fine from the Polish Financial Supervision Authority of PLN 9,9 million, taking the quarter to a consolidated net loss of PLN 2,9 million; the European Securities and Markets Authority's rules effective from 1 August 2018 reduced leverage for retail customers to 30:1 or lower depending on the underlying asset — Q3 2018 · publ. 2018 · source ↗
  4. ReportedOperating income went from 288,3 million złoty in 2018 to 239,3 million in 2019, and net profit from 101,5 million to 57,7 million — down 43 per cent over two years in which the client base grew and nothing about the company changed.
    X-Trade Brokers Dom Maklerski S.A. Group annual report for 2019 - financial highlights for the twelve months ended 31 December 2019 and 31 December 2018: total operating income 239 304 and 288 301; profit on operating activities 65 412 and 115 809; profit before tax 69 436 and 124 671; net profit 57 701 and 101 471; net profit per share 0,49 and 0,86 złoty; total assets 1 138 900 and 970 074; salaries and employee benefits (86 024) and (78 478); marketing (37 716) and (33 322); other external services (24 638) and (24 909); total operating expenses (173 892) and (172 492); segment results for 2019 with retail operations producing total operating income of 218 457 and operating profit of 49 021 against institutional operations at 20 847 and 16 391; the average number of employees in the Group was 434 persons in 2019 and 391 persons in 2018 — FY2018-FY2019 · publ. 2020 · source ↗
  5. ReportedContracts for difference produced 2 035 million złoty of gross gain in 2025, 96 per cent of the total, and 1 982 million in the first half of 2026 alone.
    XTB Group half-year report for the first half of 2026, income statement and geography - total operating income 2 086 324 against 1 160 891, up 79,7%, with the second quarter at 992 558 against the first quarter's 1 094 018, down 9,3%; profit on operating activities 1 202 271 against 552 163, up 117,7%; finance costs (607) against (85 087); profit before tax 1 255 368 against 495 343; income tax (228 128) against (85 291); net profit 1 027 240 against 410 052, up 150,5%, with the second quarter at 492 198; marketing (435 510) against (264 356), up 64,7%; salaries and employee benefits (246 964) against (192 700); total operating expenses (884 053) against (608 728), up 45,2%; operating income by geography for the six months to 30 June 2026 and 30 June 2025: Central and Eastern Europe 1 524 434 and 757 411, including Poland 1 197 033 and 605 985; Western Europe 402 163 and 237 381; Latin America 60 125 and 98 711; Middle East 99 577 and 67 388; Asia 25 and nil; the country from which the Group derives 20% and over of its revenue is Poland; net gain by class for the six months: CFD instruments 1 982 414 against 1 112 043 and other instruments 82 940 against 36 128, giving a gross result of 2 065 371 against 1 148 171; interest income on clients' cash 45 978 against 34 713; commission and fee income 15 975 against 9 520 — H1 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedXTB has rebranded from trading to investing, launched a Cash ISA and a savings wrapper in three countries, and accumulated 43 364 million złoty of client custody, and the derivative book is still essentially the whole income statement.
    XTB results presentation for the first half of 2026, activities and products - the Cash ISA for United Kingdom residents launched in Q1 2026 with flexible tax-free interest compounding, a GBP 20 000 annual contribution limit, the option to withdraw and re-deposit funds without losing the allowance, fee-free transactions and FSCS protection up to GBP 120 000; spot crypto trading launched for clients in Cyprus based on a CySEC licence and MiCA standards and expanded to Chile with access to 46 of the most popular cryptocurrencies; extended trading hours for nearly 1 000 key European stocks and ETFs from 7:30 AM to 10:00 PM; an AI module for analyzing media sentiment; self-selection and closing of individual stock and ETF positions as an alternative to the automatic FIFO rule; full access to and management of IKE and IKZE retirement accounts from desktop computers; additional regulatory licences in the United Arab Emirates; the incorporation of XTB Lithuania UAB in Vilnius on 1 June 2026; a securities agent licence for the Chilean subsidiary; a global partnership with the International Basketball Federation (FIBA) as official sponsor of the men's and women's World Cups and title sponsor of the European Qualifiers; a partnership with SSC Napoli, XTB's first with a football club from Europe's top five leagues, running to the end of the 2026/2027 season and aimed at the Italian market; tennis player sponsorships at Roland Garros and Wimbledon; and a product roadmap with cryptoassets, an OKI account for clients in Poland, long-term investment products and margin trading in progress, and options, expansion of the pension account offering in other European countries and Investment Plans 2,0 planned — H1 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe direction of European retail-investor regulation over two decades has been one way, and the current agenda is not idle: a ban on payment for order flow takes effect on 30 June 2026, national supervisors have restricted the advertising of leveraged products in several markets, and appropriateness testing has been tightened repeatedly.
    XTB Group Management Board report on activities in 2025, business model and competitive landscape - the model "combines the features of an agency model with a market maker model, in which the Company is a party to transactions concluded and initiated by clients"; "XTB operates as a market-maker, meaning it is the counterparty to a client's transaction"; "XTB executes all transactions in shares, ETFs, and CFDs based on these assets directly on regulated markets or alternative trading systems. XTB is not a market maker for this class of instruments"; the competitive environment divided into trading platform providers (eToro, Trading 212, Robinhood), fintech companies (Trade Republic, Scalable Capital, Revolut) and CFD-only brokers (Plus500, IG Group, CMC Markets, Saxo Bank), with Polish bank-affiliated brokerages named as mBank Biuro Maklerskie, Santander Biuro Maklerskie, Dom Maklerski Banku Ochrony Srodowiska (BOSSA), PKO BP Biuro Maklerskie, ING Securities and Bank Pekao S.A. Biuro Maklerskie, and XTB described as a market leader in Poland; the planned European ban on the payment-for-order-flow model from 2026; key competitive advantages listed as a wide product range including stocks, ETFs, Investment Plans and CFDs plus interest on free funds, an eWallet with a multi-currency card and long-term savings accounts IKE (Poland), ISA (United Kingdom) and PEA (France); the proprietary xStation platform and XTB mobile app; no commissions up to EUR 100 000 turnover on stocks and ETFs and no withdrawal fees; operations in over 15 countries; regulation by nine financial authorities including the FCA and KNF; client fund segregation; 24/5 support; and the XTB Academy. Brand ambassadors Mads Mikkelsen (2016-2018), Conor McGregor and Iker Casillas (2022-2024) and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (2024-2026); nearly PLN 585 million allocated to marketing in 2025, up 69,6%, including the largest campaign in the group's history launched in September 2025 across 13 markets including Poland, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Chile, the Middle East and Indonesia, and sponsorship at Roland Garros and Wimbledon; the XTB brand dating from 2009 and the word "trading" replaced by "investing" in 2023 — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe 2018 intervention was published, consulted on, and still arrived as a step change in one quarter, applied simultaneously across every member state — which is the arithmetic of a single market.
    XTB third-quarter 2018 results as reported by Finance Magnates - total operating income was PLN 47,6 million, a 35 per cent fall from PLN 73,1 million in the same period of 2017; profit fell by 80 per cent year on year from PLN 31,3 million in 2017 to PLN 6,2 million; total revenues from CFDs were PLN 47,3 million excluding a fine, against PLN 72,5 million a year earlier; currency CFD revenue of PLN 10,4 million was PLN 18,9 million or 64 per cent lower and commodity CFD revenue of PLN 27,9 million was PLN 22,3 million or 80 per cent higher; the broker received an administrative fine from the Polish Financial Supervision Authority of PLN 9,9 million, taking the quarter to a consolidated net loss of PLN 2,9 million; the European Securities and Markets Authority's rules effective from 1 August 2018 reduced leverage for retail customers to 30:1 or lower depending on the underlying asset — Q3 2018 · publ. 2018 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026