The MoatThin moat

XTB (XTB) — moat facet

The assets that stay are the assets that pay nothing, and the assets that pay can be gone by Friday.

The honest way to describe this moat is to separate two things that XTB's own reporting keeps apart: the business that makes the money, and the business that keeps the client.

Gross gain: the sticky half against the paying half, PLN m1 6232023 CFDs112023 shares1 8372024 CFDs312024 shares2 0352025 CFDs782025 sharesShares and ETFs: 0,7 per cent of the CFD figure in 2023, 3,8 per cent in 2025
The assets that stay earn 3,8 per cent of what the assets that leave earn.

The money comes from contracts for difference, and the position there is genuinely defensible in one narrow sense and genuinely weak in another. It is defensible because the licence is hard to get, the platform took two decades to build, and being the counterparty rather than the broker means XTB earns the whole spread rather than a commission on somebody else's spread. That is why it can advertise no commission on shares and still run a 40 per cent EBITDA margin.1 It is weak because none of it produces switching costs. A contract for difference is closed in a second and the cash is wired out the same week. Nothing holds a leveraged trader anywhere except the price and the screen.

The client-keeping business is newer, smaller and much stickier. At the end of June 2026 clients held 43 364 million złoty of shares and exchange-traded funds in XTB accounts, up from 27 284 million six months earlier and 13 682 million a year before that.2 Moving a portfolio of listed securities between brokers is a paperwork exercise that takes weeks, and inside a tax wrapper such as a Polish IKE, a British ISA or a French PEA it can cost the holder a tax benefit accumulated over years.3 Those assets do not leave in an afternoon.

The problem is that they also do not pay. Shares and exchange-traded funds produced 78 million złoty of gross gain in 2025 against 2 035 million from contracts for difference.4 The sticky assets earn almost nothing, and the paying assets are not sticky. That single sentence is the whole moat question here, and the company knows it: in 2023 it took the word "trading" out of its own brand and replaced it with "investing", which is a statement about what it wants to become rather than what it currently is.5

What XTB does have is real. Nine regulators, a capital ratio of 186 per cent against a requirement it clears many times over, a proprietary platform that carries 91 per cent of its own trading volume, a brand that is the market leader in a country of 37,33 million people6, and a distribution machine that added 864 286 clients in 2025 and 703 333 in the first half of 2026 at an acquisition cost of about 600 złoty each.7 Those are not nothing. They are the reason XTB has compounded operating income from 239 million złoty in 2019 to more than 3 000 million on a trailing basis, and the reason return on equity has cleared any sensible cost of capital in all seven of those years, at a low of 12 per cent and a high of 63.8

But a moat is supposed to explain why the returns persist, and here they persist because the client base keeps growing rather than because any individual client is hard to lose. Revenue per active client has fallen in four of the last five years. Plus500, a rival with the same model and a fifth as many active customers, earns roughly seven times as much from each one. The rating is thin, and the trajectory is widening, because the part that is thin is shrinking as a share of the whole while the part that could be thick is compounding at close to a hundred per cent a year.

Watch the ratio of gross gain on shares and exchange-traded funds to gross gain on contracts for difference. It was 0,7 per cent in 2023 and 3,8 per cent in 2025.9 If it keeps rising, XTB is turning into a different and better company. If it stops, the last two quarters were weather.

Moat trajectory: Widening

The thin part is shrinking as a share of the whole while the part that could be thick compounds at close to 100 per cent a year: client instruments went from 13 682 million złoty to 43 364 million in eighteen months, and gross gain on shares and funds from 0,7 per cent of the total to 3,8. Neither number is yet large enough to change what this company is.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Return on equity vs an assumed 11% cost of equity
32,2% in 2025, and above the hurdle in all seven disclosed years

XTB's own multi-year table gives return on equity of 12,2, 58,3, 26,4, 63,3, 48,8, 45,8 and 32,2 per cent for 2019 to 2025, against an assumed 11 per cent cost of equity for a Polish financial firm - the same hurdle used for PKO in this collection. The trailing figure after the first half of 2026 is around 49 per cent. The returns are not the question here; whether they repeat is. Watch the low end of the range: 12,2 per cent came in 2019, the year after a leverage cap.

Source: XTB Group consolidated annual report for 2025 ↗
Aspects of the moat
DIG DEEPER 01
The Licence, and the Nine Regulators Behind It
A permit from 2005 that keeps competitors out, held by the party that halved the business overnight in 2018.
DIG DEEPER 02
Being the House
XTB does not take a commission on the trade; it takes the other side of it, which is why no commission and a 40 per cent margin can both be true.
DIG DEEPER 03
The Platform It Built Instead of Renting
Ninety-one per cent of the trading runs on software XTB owns, which buys speed and independence and does not stop anybody following.
DIG DEEPER 04
Forty-Three Billion Złoty That Cannot Leave in an Afternoon
Clients hold more in shares and funds at XTB than the whole company is worth, and it earns twenty-nine basis points on them.
References
  1. ReportedThat is why it can advertise no commission on shares and still run a 40 per cent EBITDA margin.
    XTB Group Management Board report on activities in 2025, business model and competitive landscape - the model "combines the features of an agency model with a market maker model, in which the Company is a party to transactions concluded and initiated by clients"; "XTB operates as a market-maker, meaning it is the counterparty to a client's transaction"; "XTB executes all transactions in shares, ETFs, and CFDs based on these assets directly on regulated markets or alternative trading systems. XTB is not a market maker for this class of instruments"; the competitive environment divided into trading platform providers (eToro, Trading 212, Robinhood), fintech companies (Trade Republic, Scalable Capital, Revolut) and CFD-only brokers (Plus500, IG Group, CMC Markets, Saxo Bank), with Polish bank-affiliated brokerages named as mBank Biuro Maklerskie, Santander Biuro Maklerskie, Dom Maklerski Banku Ochrony Srodowiska (BOSSA), PKO BP Biuro Maklerskie, ING Securities and Bank Pekao S.A. Biuro Maklerskie, and XTB described as a market leader in Poland; the planned European ban on the payment-for-order-flow model from 2026; key competitive advantages listed as a wide product range including stocks, ETFs, Investment Plans and CFDs plus interest on free funds, an eWallet with a multi-currency card and long-term savings accounts IKE (Poland), ISA (United Kingdom) and PEA (France); the proprietary xStation platform and XTB mobile app; no commissions up to EUR 100 000 turnover on stocks and ETFs and no withdrawal fees; operations in over 15 countries; regulation by nine financial authorities including the FCA and KNF; client fund segregation; 24/5 support; and the XTB Academy. Brand ambassadors Mads Mikkelsen (2016-2018), Conor McGregor and Iker Casillas (2022-2024) and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (2024-2026); nearly PLN 585 million allocated to marketing in 2025, up 69,6%, including the largest campaign in the group's history launched in September 2025 across 13 markets including Poland, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Chile, the Middle East and Indonesia, and sponsorship at Roland Garros and Wimbledon; the XTB brand dating from 2009 and the word "trading" replaced by "investing" in 2023 — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedAt the end of June 2026 clients held 43 364 million złoty of shares and exchange-traded funds in XTB accounts, up from 27 284 million six months earlier and 13 682 million a year before that.
    XTB Group half-year report for the first half of 2026, notes - nominal value of derivative financial instruments at 30 June 2026 and 31 December 2025: Index CFDs 3 642 905 and 3 933 252; Commodity CFDs 3 967 775 and 6 216 958; Currency CFDs 2 204 780 and 3 284 496; Stock and ETF CFDs 1 767 315 and 1 615 397; Bond CFDs 4 118 and 1 553; Options 125 478 and nil; total 11 712 371 and 15 051 656, and as at 30 June 2026 transactions with brokers represent 8% of the total nominal value of instruments against 16% at 31 December 2025; clients' financial instruments at 30 June 2026 and 31 December 2025: listed stocks and rights to stocks 23 345 382 and 15 138 542; ETFs 20 018 050 and 12 144 808; other securities 207 and 207; total 43 363 639 and 27 283 557; amounts due to clients: retail 7 023 586 and 6 428 875, institutional 100 955 and 99 348, total 7 124 541 and 6 528 223; contributions to the compensation scheme with a closing balance of 28 338 against 23 981; total employment at 30 June 2026 of 1 548 people against 1 516 at 31 December 2025; XXZW Investment Group S.A. holding 42 067 329 shares or 35,78% at 30 June 2026; XTB Lithuania UAB incorporated with no operations yet; dividends of 478 507 thousand złoty paid in the period — H1 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedMoving a portfolio of listed securities between brokers is a paperwork exercise that takes weeks, and inside a tax wrapper such as a Polish IKE, a British ISA or a French PEA it can cost the holder a tax benefit accumulated over years.
    XTB Group Management Board report on activities in 2025, business model and competitive landscape - the model "combines the features of an agency model with a market maker model, in which the Company is a party to transactions concluded and initiated by clients"; "XTB operates as a market-maker, meaning it is the counterparty to a client's transaction"; "XTB executes all transactions in shares, ETFs, and CFDs based on these assets directly on regulated markets or alternative trading systems. XTB is not a market maker for this class of instruments"; the competitive environment divided into trading platform providers (eToro, Trading 212, Robinhood), fintech companies (Trade Republic, Scalable Capital, Revolut) and CFD-only brokers (Plus500, IG Group, CMC Markets, Saxo Bank), with Polish bank-affiliated brokerages named as mBank Biuro Maklerskie, Santander Biuro Maklerskie, Dom Maklerski Banku Ochrony Srodowiska (BOSSA), PKO BP Biuro Maklerskie, ING Securities and Bank Pekao S.A. Biuro Maklerskie, and XTB described as a market leader in Poland; the planned European ban on the payment-for-order-flow model from 2026; key competitive advantages listed as a wide product range including stocks, ETFs, Investment Plans and CFDs plus interest on free funds, an eWallet with a multi-currency card and long-term savings accounts IKE (Poland), ISA (United Kingdom) and PEA (France); the proprietary xStation platform and XTB mobile app; no commissions up to EUR 100 000 turnover on stocks and ETFs and no withdrawal fees; operations in over 15 countries; regulation by nine financial authorities including the FCA and KNF; client fund segregation; 24/5 support; and the XTB Academy. Brand ambassadors Mads Mikkelsen (2016-2018), Conor McGregor and Iker Casillas (2022-2024) and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (2024-2026); nearly PLN 585 million allocated to marketing in 2025, up 69,6%, including the largest campaign in the group's history launched in September 2025 across 13 markets including Poland, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Chile, the Middle East and Indonesia, and sponsorship at Roland Garros and Wimbledon; the XTB brand dating from 2009 and the word "trading" replaced by "investing" in 2023 — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedShares and exchange-traded funds produced 78 million złoty of gross gain in 2025 against 2 035 million from contracts for difference.
    XTB Group consolidated financial statements for 2025, comprehensive income statement and revenue notes - total operating income 2 146 056 against 1 873 436; income from fees and charges 20 287 against 12 291; other income 3 198; marketing (584 898) against (344 808); salaries and employee benefits (413 019) against (311 574); commission expenses (107 415) against (97 289); other external services (132 846) against (79 226); amortisation and depreciation (25 405) against (19 905); taxes and fees (15 955) against (13 109); costs of maintenance and lease of buildings (10 559) against (7 999); other costs (23 580) against (12 791); total operating expenses (1 313 677) against (886 701); profit on operating activities 832 379 against 986 735; finance income 39 603 against 62 845 including interest income on financial instruments at amortized cost 26 538 and income on bonds 12 744 against 26 138 and foreign exchange gains of nil against 10 307; finance costs (94 594) against (1 129), of which foreign exchange losses (93 125) against nil, relating to unrealised differences on the measurement of balance sheet items denominated in a currency other than the functional currency; profit before tax 777 388 against 1 048 451; income tax (133 189) against (191 595); net profit 644 199 against 856 856; basic earnings per share 5,48 against 7,29. Result of operations in financial instruments by class for 2025 and 2024: Commodity CFDs 923 714 and 896 672; Index CFDs 760 736 and 622 728; Currency CFDs 290 408 and 272 276; Stock and ETP CFDs 60 047 and 44 762; Bond CFDs 101 and 735; total CFDs 2 035 006 and 1 837 173; Stocks and ETPs 78 310 and 30 654; gross gain on transactions in financial instruments 2 113 316 and 1 867 827; bonuses and discounts paid to customers (17 328) and (12 629); commission paid to cooperating brokers (51 406) and (54 623); net gain on transactions in financial instruments 2 044 582 and 1 800 575; interest income on client funds 140 129 and interest paid to clients (62 140), giving net interest income of 77 989 and 58 989 — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThat single sentence is the whole moat question here, and the company knows it: in 2023 it took the word "trading" out of its own brand and replaced it with "investing", which is a statement about what it wants to become rather than what it currently is.
    XTB Group Management Board report on activities in 2025, business model and competitive landscape - the model "combines the features of an agency model with a market maker model, in which the Company is a party to transactions concluded and initiated by clients"; "XTB operates as a market-maker, meaning it is the counterparty to a client's transaction"; "XTB executes all transactions in shares, ETFs, and CFDs based on these assets directly on regulated markets or alternative trading systems. XTB is not a market maker for this class of instruments"; the competitive environment divided into trading platform providers (eToro, Trading 212, Robinhood), fintech companies (Trade Republic, Scalable Capital, Revolut) and CFD-only brokers (Plus500, IG Group, CMC Markets, Saxo Bank), with Polish bank-affiliated brokerages named as mBank Biuro Maklerskie, Santander Biuro Maklerskie, Dom Maklerski Banku Ochrony Srodowiska (BOSSA), PKO BP Biuro Maklerskie, ING Securities and Bank Pekao S.A. Biuro Maklerskie, and XTB described as a market leader in Poland; the planned European ban on the payment-for-order-flow model from 2026; key competitive advantages listed as a wide product range including stocks, ETFs, Investment Plans and CFDs plus interest on free funds, an eWallet with a multi-currency card and long-term savings accounts IKE (Poland), ISA (United Kingdom) and PEA (France); the proprietary xStation platform and XTB mobile app; no commissions up to EUR 100 000 turnover on stocks and ETFs and no withdrawal fees; operations in over 15 countries; regulation by nine financial authorities including the FCA and KNF; client fund segregation; 24/5 support; and the XTB Academy. Brand ambassadors Mads Mikkelsen (2016-2018), Conor McGregor and Iker Casillas (2022-2024) and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (2024-2026); nearly PLN 585 million allocated to marketing in 2025, up 69,6%, including the largest campaign in the group's history launched in September 2025 across 13 markets including Poland, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Chile, the Middle East and Indonesia, and sponsorship at Roland Garros and Wimbledon; the XTB brand dating from 2009 and the word "trading" replaced by "investing" in 2023 — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedNine regulators, a capital ratio of 186 per cent against a requirement it clears many times over, a proprietary platform that carries 91 per cent of its own trading volume, a brand that is the market leader in a country of 37,33 million people, and a distribution machine that added 864 286 clients in 2025 and 703 333 in the first half of 2026 at an acquisition cost of about 600 złoty each.[
    Statistics Poland (GUS) - the population of Poland, 37,33 million in 2025, against Allegro's 15,5 million Polish active buyers — 2025 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedNine regulators, a capital ratio of 186 per cent against a requirement it clears many times over, a proprietary platform that carries 91 per cent of its own trading volume, a brand that is the market leader in a country of 37,33 million people, and a distribution machine that added 864 286 clients in 2025 and 703 333 in the first half of 2026 at an acquisition cost of about 600 złoty each.
    Statistics Poland (GUS) - the population of Poland, 37,33 million in 2025, against Allegro's 15,5 million Polish active buyers — 2025 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThey are the reason XTB has compounded operating income from 239 million złoty in 2019 to more than 3 000 million on a trailing basis, and the reason return on equity has cleared any sensible cost of capital in all seven of those years, at a low of 12 per cent and a high of 63.
    XTB Group Management Board report on activities in 2025, synthetic summary of data for 2019-2025 (values for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2019 in that order): market value of the Company's shares at period end 71,8, 70,4, 37,8, 31,0, 16,8, 17,9 and 4,0 złoty; earnings per share 5,5, 7,3, 6,7, 6,5, 2,0, 3,4 and 0,5; equity 2 000,5, 2 003,6, 1 734,7, 1 506,1, 915,6, 888,3 and 490,7 million złoty; group total capital ratio 186,0, 192,3, 188,7, 218,1, 200,1, 200,1 and 165,8 per cent; EBITDA 857,8, 1 006,6, 941,4, 897,7, 285,7, 523,5 and 72,2 million złoty; EBITDA margin 40,0, 53,7, 58,2, 62,2, 45,7, 65,6 and 30,2 per cent; net profit margin 30,0, 45,7, 48,9, 53,0, 38,0, 50,4 and 24,1 per cent; return on equity 32,2, 45,8, 48,8, 63,3, 26,4, 58,3 and 12,2 per cent; return on assets 8,2, 15,1, 18,0, 21,1, 8,8, 23,5 and 5,5 per cent; new clients 864,3, 498,4, 312,0, 196,9, 189,2, 112,0 and 36,6 thousand; total clients 2 164,9, 1 361,6, 897,6, 614,9, 429,2, 255,8 and 149,3 thousand; active clients 1 189,4, 701,1, 418,4, 270,6, 193,2, 108,3 and 49,6 thousand; net deposits 14 672,3, 8 607,3, 3 793,7, 3 423,2, 2 933,4, 1 961,2 and 409,4 million złoty; average operating revenue per active client 1,8, 2,7, 3,9, 5,4, 3,2, 7,4 and 5,1 thousand złoty; average client acquisition cost 0,7, 0,7, 0,8, 1,1, 0,6, 0,8 and 1,0 thousand złoty; turnover in CFD derivative instruments 8 866,4, 6 274,2, 6 779,8, 6 592,9, 4 045,9, 3 113,4 and 1 638,6 thousand lots; profitability per lot 215, 275, 227, 212, 144, 249 and 140 złoty; stock and ETF volume in nominal value 21 812,5, 9 574,1, 4 512,7, 3 336,3, 4 437,3, 1 643,3 and 178,8 million dollars; turnover in CFD derivatives in notional value 4 805,7, 2 626,6, 2 285,9, 2 259,6, 1 737,4, 1 021,8 and 541,5 million dollars; standalone operating income 1 908,4 and net profit 638,9 million złoty; balance sheet total 9 086,7 million złoty — FY2019-FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  9. Moat Explorer calcIt was 0,7 per cent in 2023 and 3,8 per cent in 2025.
    Moat Explorer calculations from XTB's published figures. Correlations across the eight quarters from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026 between operating income (470 234, 465 416, 580 294, 580 597, 375 821, 609 344, 1 094 018 and 992 558 thousand złoty) and, first, CFD turnover in lots (1 627 978, 1 657 390, 1 907 974, 2 321 584, 2 094 296, 2 542 526, 2 323 204 and 1 831 627) giving 0,25, second, CFD notional in dollars (695 315, 727 854, 937 867, 1 144 554, 1 118 278, 1 605 005, 1 333 410 and 1 029 179 million) giving 0,37, and third, profitability per lot (272, 253, 277, 229, 152, 208, 439 and 484 złoty) giving 0,92; the ranges over those quarters are 1,56 times for lots, 2,31 times for notional, 3,18 times for profitability per lot and 2,91 times for operating income. Annually from 2019 to 2025 the correlation between CFD turnover in lots and operating income is 0,96. Market capitalisation of 16 970 million złoty is 144,34 złoty multiplied by 117 569 251 shares, which against trailing twelve-month revenue of 3 071,5 million złoty (2 146,056 less 1 160,891 plus 2 086,324) gives 5,53 times sales, and against trailing net profit of 1 261,4 million (644,199 less 410,052 plus 1 027,240) gives 13,45 times earnings and earnings per share of 10,73. Historic price-earnings ratios are year-end share price multiplied by 117,569 million shares divided by net profit: 8,15, 5,23, 8,31, 4,76, 5,62, 9,66 and 13,10 for 2019 to 2025, with price-to-sales of 1,97, 2,64, 3,16, 2,51, 2,75, 4,42 and 3,93. XTB's 2025 operating income of 2 146,056 million złoty converts to 570,9 million dollars at the National Bank of Poland's 2025 average rate of 3,7588, giving 480 dollars per active client across 1 189 397 active clients against Plus500's 3 268 dollars across 242 440, a ratio of 6,8 times, while Plus500's revenue of 792,4 million dollars is 39 per cent more than XTB's. Client instruments of 43 363 639 thousand złoty across 2 825 700 clients is 15 346 złoty each, against 12 603 at 31 December 2025 and 10 048 at 31 December 2024; 43 363 639 thousand złoty converts to 8,6 billion pounds at 5,03 złoty to the pound, or 3 051 pounds a client, against Trading 212's 25 billion pounds across 4,5 million funded accounts, or 5 556 each. Gross gain on stocks and ETPs as a share of gross gain on CFDs is 0,7 per cent for 2023 (11 050 over 1 622 633), 1,7 per cent for 2024 (30 654 over 1 837 173) and 3,8 per cent for 2025 (78 310 over 2 035 006); as a share of client instruments held, 78 310 over 27 283 557 is 29 basis points. Marketing divided by salaries is 0,44 in 2019 (37 716 over 86 024), 1,42 in 2025 (584 898 over 413 019) and 1,76 in the first half of 2026 (435 510 over 246 964). Revenue per employee is 1,54 million złoty for 2023 (1 618 385 over 1 054), 1,51 million for 2024 (1 873 436 over 1 245), 1,42 million for 2025 (2 146 056 over 1 516) and 2,70 million annualised for the first half of 2026 (4 172 648 over 1 548). Poland's share of operating income is 46,7 per cent in 2023, 52,7 in 2024, 54,4 in 2025 and 57,4 per cent in the first half of 2026 (1 197 033 over 2 086 324). Net interest income is 3,1 per cent of 2024 revenue and 3,6 per cent of 2025 revenue; the share of interest kept is 78 per cent of 140,1 million less 62,1 million, or 56 per cent. Institutional revenue is 2,0 per cent of 2025 operating income (42 524 over 2 146 056) and was 8,7 per cent in 2019 (20 847 over 239 304). Second-quarter 2026 net profit of 1 027 240 less 535 042 is 492 198 against 216 129 a year earlier, a rise of 127,7 per cent, while the sequential fall from 535 042 is 8,0 per cent. The 2018 to 2019 declines are 17,0 per cent in operating income and 43,1 per cent in net profit — FY2019-H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026