⚠ The National Bank Sets This LineHigh threat

XTB (XTB) — threat to the moat

XTB keeps 56 per cent of the interest and controls none of it; the rate belongs to the Monetary Policy Council.

Net interest income on client money is entirely a function of the reference rate, and the reference rate belongs to the Monetary Policy Council in Warsaw and its equivalents in the other currencies XTB holds.1

Poland reference rate, per cent0,1%20201,75%20216,75%20225,75%20235,75%Nov 2023 launchXTB introduced interest on idle client cash in November 2023, near the top of the cycle
The product was launched at the peak of the rate that pays for it.

The mechanics leave XTB with the thin end. It earns roughly the market rate on segregated client balances and hands a share of it back to clients as an advertised feature; in 2025 it kept 78,0 million złoty of 140,1 million, or 56 per cent.2 When rates fall, the gross figure falls immediately and the portion paid to clients is much harder to cut, because it is a headline term in the product. A firm that has spent two years advertising interest on idle cash cannot quietly stop paying it when the policy rate moves.3

Poland has already run this cycle once at speed. The reference rate went from 0,10 per cent in 2020 to 6,75 per cent in 2022, which is the reason this product exists at all — it was introduced in November 2023, near the top.4 The Council has been cutting since. Every hundred basis points removes a proportionate slice of a line that is now 78 million złoty a year, and there is no operating response available.

The consolation is scale in the other direction: client cash grew 9 per cent in six months and the client count 12 per cent, so a growing balance partly offsets a falling rate.5

Interest earned on client funds against interest paid away: 140,1 and 62,1 million złoty in 2025.6 A narrowing gap is how the rate cycle will announce itself.

References
  1. ReportedNet interest income on client money is entirely a function of the reference rate, and the reference rate belongs to the Monetary Policy Council in Warsaw and its equivalents in the other currencies XTB holds.
    XTB Group Management Board report on activities in 2025, financial results and dividend - total operating income of 2 146 056 thousand złoty against 1 873 436, up 14,6%; operating income by geography: Central and Eastern Europe 1 447 904 including Poland 1 168 350, Western Europe 387 409, Latin America 128 259, Middle East 182 480 and Asia 4 thousand złoty, with Poland at 54,4% of revenue against 52,7% in 2024; retail business 2 103 532 against 1 791 144 and Institutional Activities (X Open Hub) 42 524 against 82 292, a fall of 48,3%; net interest income on client cash of PLN 78,0 million, 3,6% of total revenue against 3,1%, PLN 19,0 million higher year on year, with interest income on client funds PLN 34,6 million or 32,7% higher and interest expenses paid to clients PLN 15,5 million or 33,3% higher, the product having been introduced in November 2023; nearly PLN 585 million of marketing spend, up 69,6% — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcIt earns roughly the market rate on segregated client balances and hands a share of it back to clients as an advertised feature; in 2025 it kept 78,0 million złoty of 140,1 million, or 56 per cent.
    Moat Explorer calculations from XTB's published figures. Correlations across the eight quarters from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026 between operating income (470 234, 465 416, 580 294, 580 597, 375 821, 609 344, 1 094 018 and 992 558 thousand złoty) and, first, CFD turnover in lots (1 627 978, 1 657 390, 1 907 974, 2 321 584, 2 094 296, 2 542 526, 2 323 204 and 1 831 627) giving 0,25, second, CFD notional in dollars (695 315, 727 854, 937 867, 1 144 554, 1 118 278, 1 605 005, 1 333 410 and 1 029 179 million) giving 0,37, and third, profitability per lot (272, 253, 277, 229, 152, 208, 439 and 484 złoty) giving 0,92; the ranges over those quarters are 1,56 times for lots, 2,31 times for notional, 3,18 times for profitability per lot and 2,91 times for operating income. Annually from 2019 to 2025 the correlation between CFD turnover in lots and operating income is 0,96. Market capitalisation of 16 970 million złoty is 144,34 złoty multiplied by 117 569 251 shares, which against trailing twelve-month revenue of 3 071,5 million złoty (2 146,056 less 1 160,891 plus 2 086,324) gives 5,53 times sales, and against trailing net profit of 1 261,4 million (644,199 less 410,052 plus 1 027,240) gives 13,45 times earnings and earnings per share of 10,73. Historic price-earnings ratios are year-end share price multiplied by 117,569 million shares divided by net profit: 8,15, 5,23, 8,31, 4,76, 5,62, 9,66 and 13,10 for 2019 to 2025, with price-to-sales of 1,97, 2,64, 3,16, 2,51, 2,75, 4,42 and 3,93. XTB's 2025 operating income of 2 146,056 million złoty converts to 570,9 million dollars at the National Bank of Poland's 2025 average rate of 3,7588, giving 480 dollars per active client across 1 189 397 active clients against Plus500's 3 268 dollars across 242 440, a ratio of 6,8 times, while Plus500's revenue of 792,4 million dollars is 39 per cent more than XTB's. Client instruments of 43 363 639 thousand złoty across 2 825 700 clients is 15 346 złoty each, against 12 603 at 31 December 2025 and 10 048 at 31 December 2024; 43 363 639 thousand złoty converts to 8,6 billion pounds at 5,03 złoty to the pound, or 3 051 pounds a client, against Trading 212's 25 billion pounds across 4,5 million funded accounts, or 5 556 each. Gross gain on stocks and ETPs as a share of gross gain on CFDs is 0,7 per cent for 2023 (11 050 over 1 622 633), 1,7 per cent for 2024 (30 654 over 1 837 173) and 3,8 per cent for 2025 (78 310 over 2 035 006); as a share of client instruments held, 78 310 over 27 283 557 is 29 basis points. Marketing divided by salaries is 0,44 in 2019 (37 716 over 86 024), 1,42 in 2025 (584 898 over 413 019) and 1,76 in the first half of 2026 (435 510 over 246 964). Revenue per employee is 1,54 million złoty for 2023 (1 618 385 over 1 054), 1,51 million for 2024 (1 873 436 over 1 245), 1,42 million for 2025 (2 146 056 over 1 516) and 2,70 million annualised for the first half of 2026 (4 172 648 over 1 548). Poland's share of operating income is 46,7 per cent in 2023, 52,7 in 2024, 54,4 in 2025 and 57,4 per cent in the first half of 2026 (1 197 033 over 2 086 324). Net interest income is 3,1 per cent of 2024 revenue and 3,6 per cent of 2025 revenue; the share of interest kept is 78 per cent of 140,1 million less 62,1 million, or 56 per cent. Institutional revenue is 2,0 per cent of 2025 operating income (42 524 over 2 146 056) and was 8,7 per cent in 2019 (20 847 over 239 304). Second-quarter 2026 net profit of 1 027 240 less 535 042 is 492 198 against 216 129 a year earlier, a rise of 127,7 per cent, while the sequential fall from 535 042 is 8,0 per cent. The 2018 to 2019 declines are 17,0 per cent in operating income and 43,1 per cent in net profit — FY2019-H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedA firm that has spent two years advertising interest on idle cash cannot quietly stop paying it when the policy rate moves.
    XTB Group Management Board report on activities in 2025, financial results and dividend - total operating income of 2 146 056 thousand złoty against 1 873 436, up 14,6%; operating income by geography: Central and Eastern Europe 1 447 904 including Poland 1 168 350, Western Europe 387 409, Latin America 128 259, Middle East 182 480 and Asia 4 thousand złoty, with Poland at 54,4% of revenue against 52,7% in 2024; retail business 2 103 532 against 1 791 144 and Institutional Activities (X Open Hub) 42 524 against 82 292, a fall of 48,3%; net interest income on client cash of PLN 78,0 million, 3,6% of total revenue against 3,1%, PLN 19,0 million higher year on year, with interest income on client funds PLN 34,6 million or 32,7% higher and interest expenses paid to clients PLN 15,5 million or 33,3% higher, the product having been introduced in November 2023; nearly PLN 585 million of marketing spend, up 69,6% — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe reference rate went from 0,10 per cent in 2020 to 6,75 per cent in 2022, which is the reason this product exists at all — it was introduced in November 2023, near the top.
    The Polish rate-and-subsidy cycle — NBP raised its reference rate from 0,1% to 6,75% (2021–22); new mortgage lending roughly halved in 2022 (applications −71% YoY in Aug 2022); the state's 'Bezpieczny Kredyt 2%' subsidy (July 2023) re-ignited demand before lapsing — 2021-2024 · publ. 2022-2023 · source ↗
  5. Moat Explorer calcThe consolation is scale in the other direction: client cash grew 9 per cent in six months and the client count 12 per cent, so a growing balance partly offsets a falling rate.
    Moat Explorer calculations from XTB's published figures. Correlations across the eight quarters from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026 between operating income (470 234, 465 416, 580 294, 580 597, 375 821, 609 344, 1 094 018 and 992 558 thousand złoty) and, first, CFD turnover in lots (1 627 978, 1 657 390, 1 907 974, 2 321 584, 2 094 296, 2 542 526, 2 323 204 and 1 831 627) giving 0,25, second, CFD notional in dollars (695 315, 727 854, 937 867, 1 144 554, 1 118 278, 1 605 005, 1 333 410 and 1 029 179 million) giving 0,37, and third, profitability per lot (272, 253, 277, 229, 152, 208, 439 and 484 złoty) giving 0,92; the ranges over those quarters are 1,56 times for lots, 2,31 times for notional, 3,18 times for profitability per lot and 2,91 times for operating income. Annually from 2019 to 2025 the correlation between CFD turnover in lots and operating income is 0,96. Market capitalisation of 16 970 million złoty is 144,34 złoty multiplied by 117 569 251 shares, which against trailing twelve-month revenue of 3 071,5 million złoty (2 146,056 less 1 160,891 plus 2 086,324) gives 5,53 times sales, and against trailing net profit of 1 261,4 million (644,199 less 410,052 plus 1 027,240) gives 13,45 times earnings and earnings per share of 10,73. Historic price-earnings ratios are year-end share price multiplied by 117,569 million shares divided by net profit: 8,15, 5,23, 8,31, 4,76, 5,62, 9,66 and 13,10 for 2019 to 2025, with price-to-sales of 1,97, 2,64, 3,16, 2,51, 2,75, 4,42 and 3,93. XTB's 2025 operating income of 2 146,056 million złoty converts to 570,9 million dollars at the National Bank of Poland's 2025 average rate of 3,7588, giving 480 dollars per active client across 1 189 397 active clients against Plus500's 3 268 dollars across 242 440, a ratio of 6,8 times, while Plus500's revenue of 792,4 million dollars is 39 per cent more than XTB's. Client instruments of 43 363 639 thousand złoty across 2 825 700 clients is 15 346 złoty each, against 12 603 at 31 December 2025 and 10 048 at 31 December 2024; 43 363 639 thousand złoty converts to 8,6 billion pounds at 5,03 złoty to the pound, or 3 051 pounds a client, against Trading 212's 25 billion pounds across 4,5 million funded accounts, or 5 556 each. Gross gain on stocks and ETPs as a share of gross gain on CFDs is 0,7 per cent for 2023 (11 050 over 1 622 633), 1,7 per cent for 2024 (30 654 over 1 837 173) and 3,8 per cent for 2025 (78 310 over 2 035 006); as a share of client instruments held, 78 310 over 27 283 557 is 29 basis points. Marketing divided by salaries is 0,44 in 2019 (37 716 over 86 024), 1,42 in 2025 (584 898 over 413 019) and 1,76 in the first half of 2026 (435 510 over 246 964). Revenue per employee is 1,54 million złoty for 2023 (1 618 385 over 1 054), 1,51 million for 2024 (1 873 436 over 1 245), 1,42 million for 2025 (2 146 056 over 1 516) and 2,70 million annualised for the first half of 2026 (4 172 648 over 1 548). Poland's share of operating income is 46,7 per cent in 2023, 52,7 in 2024, 54,4 in 2025 and 57,4 per cent in the first half of 2026 (1 197 033 over 2 086 324). Net interest income is 3,1 per cent of 2024 revenue and 3,6 per cent of 2025 revenue; the share of interest kept is 78 per cent of 140,1 million less 62,1 million, or 56 per cent. Institutional revenue is 2,0 per cent of 2025 operating income (42 524 over 2 146 056) and was 8,7 per cent in 2019 (20 847 over 239 304). Second-quarter 2026 net profit of 1 027 240 less 535 042 is 492 198 against 216 129 a year earlier, a rise of 127,7 per cent, while the sequential fall from 535 042 is 8,0 per cent. The 2018 to 2019 declines are 17,0 per cent in operating income and 43,1 per cent in net profit — FY2019-H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedInterest earned on client funds against interest paid away: 140,1 and 62,1 million złoty in 2025.
    XTB Group consolidated financial statements for 2025, comprehensive income statement and revenue notes - total operating income 2 146 056 against 1 873 436; income from fees and charges 20 287 against 12 291; other income 3 198; marketing (584 898) against (344 808); salaries and employee benefits (413 019) against (311 574); commission expenses (107 415) against (97 289); other external services (132 846) against (79 226); amortisation and depreciation (25 405) against (19 905); taxes and fees (15 955) against (13 109); costs of maintenance and lease of buildings (10 559) against (7 999); other costs (23 580) against (12 791); total operating expenses (1 313 677) against (886 701); profit on operating activities 832 379 against 986 735; finance income 39 603 against 62 845 including interest income on financial instruments at amortized cost 26 538 and income on bonds 12 744 against 26 138 and foreign exchange gains of nil against 10 307; finance costs (94 594) against (1 129), of which foreign exchange losses (93 125) against nil, relating to unrealised differences on the measurement of balance sheet items denominated in a currency other than the functional currency; profit before tax 777 388 against 1 048 451; income tax (133 189) against (191 595); net profit 644 199 against 856 856; basic earnings per share 5,48 against 7,29. Result of operations in financial instruments by class for 2025 and 2024: Commodity CFDs 923 714 and 896 672; Index CFDs 760 736 and 622 728; Currency CFDs 290 408 and 272 276; Stock and ETP CFDs 60 047 and 44 762; Bond CFDs 101 and 735; total CFDs 2 035 006 and 1 837 173; Stocks and ETPs 78 310 and 30 654; gross gain on transactions in financial instruments 2 113 316 and 1 867 827; bonuses and discounts paid to customers (17 328) and (12 629); commission paid to cooperating brokers (51 406) and (54 623); net gain on transactions in financial instruments 2 044 582 and 1 800 575; interest income on client funds 140 129 and interest paid to clients (62 140), giving net interest income of 77 989 and 58 989 — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026