⚠ The Institutional Line HalvedModerate threat

XTB (XTB) — threat to the moat

The one place XTB's product competes on merit is reported in a single number once a year, and the number halved.

A retail client chooses a broker on brand, price and the feel of an app. An institutional client chooses on the technology, the liquidity and the terms, and evaluates all three against named alternatives. That is what makes X Open Hub's 48 per cent revenue decline in 2025 worth more attention than its size suggests.1

What the report says about a segment that halved2025 revenue42,5m zł, down 48,3 pcShare of group2,0 pc, from 4,4 pcInstitutional client balances101m zł against 7 024m zł retailNumber of clientsNot disclosedLargest clientNot disclosedReason for the declineNot disclosedStrengthening the institutional segment remains on the list of business goals
One number a year, and the number halved.

The segment fell from 82,3 million złoty to 42,5 million in a year when group revenue rose 15 per cent.2 XTB does not disclose why, does not name the clients, and does not break out how many there are, so an outside reader cannot distinguish between one large counterparty leaving, a general repricing, and a deliberate decision to allocate liquidity to the retail book instead. The absence of that disclosure is itself the problem: this is the only line in the accounts where XTB's product competes on merit, and it is reported in a single number once a year.

There is a plausible innocent explanation. Contract-for-difference technology has commoditised, several white-label providers compete for the same business, and margins in wholesale liquidity are thin, so a firm earning 30 per cent net margins in retail has little reason to defend a low-margin institutional line.3 If that is the story, halving is a choice.

Either way the strategic claim weakens. A platform that other professionals will pay for is a much stronger asset than one only retail customers see, and that evidence is now half what it was.

Watch whether institutional revenue stabilises in 2026. Another year of decline would take it below one per cent of the group.

References
  1. ReportedThat is what makes X Open Hub's 48 per cent revenue decline in 2025 worth more attention than its size suggests.
    XTB Group half-year report for the first half of 2026, notes - nominal value of derivative financial instruments at 30 June 2026 and 31 December 2025: Index CFDs 3 642 905 and 3 933 252; Commodity CFDs 3 967 775 and 6 216 958; Currency CFDs 2 204 780 and 3 284 496; Stock and ETF CFDs 1 767 315 and 1 615 397; Bond CFDs 4 118 and 1 553; Options 125 478 and nil; total 11 712 371 and 15 051 656, and as at 30 June 2026 transactions with brokers represent 8% of the total nominal value of instruments against 16% at 31 December 2025; clients' financial instruments at 30 June 2026 and 31 December 2025: listed stocks and rights to stocks 23 345 382 and 15 138 542; ETFs 20 018 050 and 12 144 808; other securities 207 and 207; total 43 363 639 and 27 283 557; amounts due to clients: retail 7 023 586 and 6 428 875, institutional 100 955 and 99 348, total 7 124 541 and 6 528 223; contributions to the compensation scheme with a closing balance of 28 338 against 23 981; total employment at 30 June 2026 of 1 548 people against 1 516 at 31 December 2025; XXZW Investment Group S.A. holding 42 067 329 shares or 35,78% at 30 June 2026; XTB Lithuania UAB incorporated with no operations yet; dividends of 478 507 thousand złoty paid in the period — H1 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe segment fell from 82,3 million złoty to 42,5 million in a year when group revenue rose 15 per cent.
    XTB Group Management Board report on activities in 2025, financial results and dividend - total operating income of 2 146 056 thousand złoty against 1 873 436, up 14,6%; operating income by geography: Central and Eastern Europe 1 447 904 including Poland 1 168 350, Western Europe 387 409, Latin America 128 259, Middle East 182 480 and Asia 4 thousand złoty, with Poland at 54,4% of revenue against 52,7% in 2024; retail business 2 103 532 against 1 791 144 and Institutional Activities (X Open Hub) 42 524 against 82 292, a fall of 48,3%; net interest income on client cash of PLN 78,0 million, 3,6% of total revenue against 3,1%, PLN 19,0 million higher year on year, with interest income on client funds PLN 34,6 million or 32,7% higher and interest expenses paid to clients PLN 15,5 million or 33,3% higher, the product having been introduced in November 2023; nearly PLN 585 million of marketing spend, up 69,6% — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedContract-for-difference technology has commoditised, several white-label providers compete for the same business, and margins in wholesale liquidity are thin, so a firm earning 30 per cent net margins in retail has little reason to defend a low-margin institutional line.
    XTB Group Management Board report on activities in 2025, financial results and dividend - total operating income of 2 146 056 thousand złoty against 1 873 436, up 14,6%; operating income by geography: Central and Eastern Europe 1 447 904 including Poland 1 168 350, Western Europe 387 409, Latin America 128 259, Middle East 182 480 and Asia 4 thousand złoty, with Poland at 54,4% of revenue against 52,7% in 2024; retail business 2 103 532 against 1 791 144 and Institutional Activities (X Open Hub) 42 524 against 82 292, a fall of 48,3%; net interest income on client cash of PLN 78,0 million, 3,6% of total revenue against 3,1%, PLN 19,0 million higher year on year, with interest income on client funds PLN 34,6 million or 32,7% higher and interest expenses paid to clients PLN 15,5 million or 33,3% higher, the product having been introduced in November 2023; nearly PLN 585 million of marketing spend, up 69,6% — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026