⚠ A Share Measured Only Where IQOS Is SoldModerate threat

Philip Morris International (PM) — threat to the moat

IQOS leads where it is sold, but across PMI's international market heated sticks are still under 6% of volume.

PMI's most quoted IQOS figures describe only the markets where IQOS is on sale. The 9.2% share of cigarette and heated-tobacco volume in the second quarter of 2026 is measured "where present"1, and so is the first-quarter milestone of IQOS passing Marlboro2.

Heated units, share of international market (%)4.720235.320245.82025PMI Form 10-K FY2025; market excludes China and the United States
About half a point a year.

Across PMI's whole international market, excluding China and the United States, the picture is smaller. Heated units held 4.7% of that market in 2023, 5.3% in 2024 and 5.8% in 20253, in a market of about 2,587 billion units4. The trend is steady, about half a point a year, but the base is still low.

That gap matters for the moat's reach. A franchise that dominates the markets where it is allowed and sold, and is absent from much of the rest, has a ceiling set partly by regulators and partly by how fast PMI can launch.

The fair reading is progress at half a point a year. International heated-unit share is the test; if the annual gain falls below a quarter of a point, the switching story is slowing where it counts most.

References
  1. ReportedThe 9.2% share of cigarette and heated-tobacco volume in the second quarter of 2026 is measured "where present", and so is the first-quarter milestone of IQOS passing Marlboro.
    Philip Morris International second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - volumes, shares, ZYN and 2026 guidance - shipment volumes, market shares, IQOS, ZYN and Japan. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe 9.2% share of cigarette and heated-tobacco volume in the second quarter of 2026 is measured "where present", and so is the first-quarter milestone of IQOS passing Marlboro.
    Philip Morris International first-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - ZYN destocking, IQOS brand share and Poland's flavour ban. — Q1 2026 · publ. 22 April 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedHeated units held 4.7% of that market in 2023, 5.3% in 2024 and 5.8% in 2025, in a market of about 2,587 billion units.
    Philip Morris International Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: markets, products, competitors, market shares, shipments and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedHeated units held 4.7% of that market in 2023, 5.3% in 2024 and 5.8% in 2025, in a market of about 2,587 billion units.
    Philip Morris International Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: markets, products, competitors, market shares, shipments and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 26, 2026