BAT and Japan Tobacco: The Head-On RivalsWide moat

Philip Morris International (PM) — moat facet

Against BAT and Japan Tobacco PMI holds its cigarette share and about three-quarters of heated tobacco, and the market values it at two and a half times BAT.

British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco are the rivals PMI meets everywhere. Both are named in its 10-K1, both sell cigarettes and heated tobacco across PMI's international markets, and both compete for the same adult smokers PMI is trying to switch.

IQOS share of Japan heated-tobacco category (%)close to 70202568June 2026PMI FY2025 and Q2 2026 results releases
Two-thirds of the most mature heated market.

In cigarettes the contest is slow. PMI's cigarette share of the international market was 25.4% in 2023 and 25.3% in 20252, flat; its rivals are not gaining against it, and it is not gaining against them. The markets are regulated in ways that freeze share: advertising bans, plain packaging in some countries, and excise increases that hit every brand at once.

In heated tobacco PMI has so far won. It holds about three-quarters of global heat-not-burn volume3 and, in Japan, the market where the category is most mature, IQOS held 68% of the category in June 20264. The remainder is shared among rivals; they have had more than a decade since the 2014 pilot launches5 and have not overturned PMI's lead.

The rivals also share PMI's liabilities. In Canada the CAD 32.5 billion global settlement is payable by PMI's deconsolidated Canadian subsidiary RBH together with Imperial Tobacco Canada and JTI-Macdonald6.

The market has judged the contest. PMI was worth $296.88 billion in September 2026 against $119.41 billion for British American Tobacco7, about two and a half times8. A narrowing of that ratio toward two would say the market believes the rivals' heated and oral products are catching up.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Cigarette share flat; heated share about three-quarters.

The number that tests this moat
Moat Explorer calc
Market value relative to British American Tobacco
About 2.5 times ($296.88bn vs $119.41bn, September 2026)

The market's verdict on the head-on contest; a ratio toward 2 would say the rivals are catching up.

How it's calculated: PMI market capitalisation divided by British American Tobacco's, stockanalysis data at 25 September 2026.
Source: Moat Explorer calculation from PMI filings ↗
References
  1. ReportedBoth are named in its 10-K, both sell cigarettes and heated tobacco across PMI's international markets, and both compete for the same adult smokers PMI is trying to switch.
    Philip Morris International Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: markets, products, competitors, market shares, shipments and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedPMI's cigarette share of the international market was 25.4% in 2023 and 25.3% in 2025, flat; its rivals are not gaining against it, and it is not gaining against them.
    Philip Morris International Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: markets, products, competitors, market shares, shipments and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIt holds about three-quarters of global heat-not-burn volume and, in Japan, the market where the category is most mature, IQOS held 68% of the category in June 2026.
    Philip Morris International second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - volumes, shares, ZYN and 2026 guidance - shipment volumes, market shares, IQOS, ZYN and Japan. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIt holds about three-quarters of global heat-not-burn volume and, in Japan, the market where the category is most mature, IQOS held 68% of the category in June 2026.
    Philip Morris International second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - volumes, shares, ZYN and 2026 guidance - shipment volumes, market shares, IQOS, ZYN and Japan. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe remainder is shared among rivals; they have had more than a decade since the 2014 pilot launches and have not overturned PMI's lead.
    Philip Morris International Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - segment results, the balance sheet, FDA authorisations and shares outstanding. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIn Canada the CAD 32.5 billion global settlement is payable by PMI's deconsolidated Canadian subsidiary RBH together with Imperial Tobacco Canada and JTI-Macdonald.
    Philip Morris International Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1A risk factors and legal proceedings: excise, Germany, Russia, Canada and credit. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedPMI was worth $296.88 billion in September 2026 against $119.41 billion for British American Tobacco, about two and a half times.
    Philip Morris International market capitalisation history - year-end values 2015-2025, and peers British American Tobacco and Altria. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  8. Moat Explorer calcPMI was worth $296.88 billion in September 2026 against $119.41 billion for British American Tobacco, about two and a half times.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Philip Morris International's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Excise and revenue 2025: 53,211 / 40,648 = 1.31 dollars of excise per dollar of net revenue; gross of excise 53,211 + 40,648 = 93,859, excise share 53,211 / 93,859 = 56.7%; excise growth 2023-2025 53,211 / 49,404 - 1 = 7.7% against net revenue growth 40,648 / 35,174 - 1 = 15.6%. Product mix 2025: smoke-free 16,854 / 40,648 = 41.5%; combustible 23,794 / 40,648 = 58.5%; smoke-free 2023 12,840 / 35,174 = 36.5%, 2024 14,660 / 37,878 = 38.7%; smoke-free growth 2023-2025 16,854 / 12,840 - 1 = 31.3%; smoke-free revenue 2016 733 to 2025 16,854 = 23 times. Segments 2025: International Smoke-Free 13,996 / 40,648 = 34.4%; International Combustibles 23,436 / 40,648 = 57.7%; U.S. 3,216 / 40,648 = 7.9%; recast gross profit shares 9,576 / 27,304 = 35.1%, 15,523 / 27,304 = 56.9%, 2,206 / 27,304 = 8.1%. Growth 2025: ISF 13,996 / 12,126 - 1 = 15.4%; IC 23,436 / 22,807 - 1 = 2.8%; U.S. 3,216 / 2,944 - 1 = 9.2%. Growth 2024: ISF 12,126 / 11,102 - 1 = 9.2%; IC 22,807 / 21,903 - 1 = 4.1%; U.S. 2,944 / 2,169 - 1 = 35.7%. IC gross profit 15,523 / 13,972 - 1 = 11.1% against IC revenue 23,436 / 21,903 - 1 = 7.0% (2023-2025). Recast reported gross margins 2023: ISF 7,021 / 11,102 = 63.2%, IC 13,972 / 21,903 = 63.8%; 2024: ISF 7,831 / 12,126 = 64.6%, IC 14,687 / 22,807 = 64.4%. Segment sum 2024 12,126 + 22,807 + 2,944 = 37,877 against 37,878 reported. IC shares of net revenues 21,903 / 35,174 = 62.3% (2023), 22,807 / 37,878 = 60.2% (2024). U.S. revenue 3,216 / 2,169 - 1 = 48.3% (2023-2025). Q2 2026 shares: ISF 3,877 / 11,192 = 34.6%, IC 6,459 / 11,192 = 57.7%, U.S. 856 / 11,192 = 7.6%. U.S. gross margin Q2 2026 555 / 856 = 64.8% against 611 / 862 = 70.9%. Swedish Match: 14,460 + 1,495 + 883 = 16,838 total cash paid; U.S. adjusted operating companies income 1,124 / 16,838 = 6.7% pre-tax; reported U.S. OCI 322 / 3,216 = 10.0% of U.S. revenue; adjusted 1,124 / 3,216 = 35.0%. Goodwill and other intangibles 17,264 + 10,884 = 28,148, 28,148 / 69,185 = 40.7% of total assets. Volumes: cigarettes 607,367 / 616,827 - 1 = -1.5% (2025), 607,367 / 612,949 - 1 = -0.9% (2023-2025); heated tobacco units 155,133 / 139,743 - 1 = 11.0% (2025), 139,743 / 125,263 - 1 = 11.6% (2024); HTUs 155,133 / (607,367 + 155,133) = 20.3% of cigarette plus HTU shipments. U.S. ZYN cans 793.7 / 384.8 = 2.06 times (2023-2025), 793.7 / 580.5 - 1 = 36.7% (2025); international nicotine pouches 879.6 - 793.7 = 85.9 million cans (2025), 644.0 - 580.5 = 63.5 (2024); snus 227.9 / 240.4 - 1 = -5.2% (2023-2025); e-vapor 3,330 / 1,651 = 2.0 times. U.S. segment: cigars 358 / 410 - 1 = -12.7%, 358 / 431 - 1 = -16.9% (2023-2025); wellness 238 / 333 - 1 = -28.5%. Cash and dividends: free cash flow 12,233 - 1,569 = 10,664 (2025), 12,217 - 1,444 = 10,773 (2024), 9,204 - 1,321 = 7,883 (2023); dividends paid / free cash flow 8,624 / 10,664 = 80.9% (2025), 8,197 / 10,773 = 76.1% (2024), 7,964 / 7,883 = 101.0% (2023). Payout of declared dividends per share over diluted EPS: 5.64 / 7.26 = 77.7% (2025), 5.30 / 4.52 = 117.3% (2024), 5.14 / 5.02 = 102.4% (2023); over adjusted EPS 5.64 / 7.54 = 74.8%. Annualised dividend 1.60 x 4 = 6.40; 6.40 / 5.64 = 1.13; dividend 5.64 / 1.54 = 3.7 times since 2008; yield 6.40 / 190.48 = 3.4%. R&D 756 / 40,648 = 1.9% of revenue; capex 1,569 / 40,648 = 3.9%. Customers: two customers 12% + 10% = 22% of 2025 net revenues; related-party revenue 4,582 / 40,648 = 11.3%; Megapolis 2,805 / 40,648 = 6.9%; Megapolis growth 2,805 / 2,393 - 1 = 17.2%. Japan 4.2 / 40.6 = 10.3% of net revenues. Canada: RBH carrying value 3,280 fair value at deconsolidation to 51 at 30 June 2026; impairments 2,316 + 511 = 2,827. Valuation: trailing twelve months to June 2026 revenue 40,648 + 21,338 - 19,441 = 42,545; net earnings 11,348 + 5,255 - 5,729 = 10,874; P/E 296.88 / 10.874 = 27.3; P/S 296.88 / 42.545 = 6.98; 2018 P/E 103.78 / 7.911 = 13.1; 2025 P/E 249.68 / 11.348 = 22.0; free cash flow yield 10,664 / 296,880 = 3.6%. Other PMI cigarette brands: 25.4 - 9.8 = 15.6% (2023), 25.3 - 10.7 = 14.6% (2025), a loss of 1.0 point against Marlboro's gain of 0.9. Excise Q2 2026 14,973 / 13,272 - 1 = 12.8% against net revenues 11,192 / 10,140 - 1 = 10.4%. U.S. smoke-free H1 1,584 - 1,311 = 273 decline. ISF H1 2026 gross margin 5,400 / 7,713 = 70.0%. Gross margin 2025 27,282 / 40,648 = 67.1%. ROIC average 2015-2025 (45.6 + 50.2 + 43.4 + 50.7 + 48.7 + 52.1 + 57.2 + 40.6 + 26.8 + 28.6 + 32.5) / 11 = 43.3%. Employees 84,900 - 82,700 = 2,200 (2023-2025); net revenues 40,648 - 35,174 = 5,474, about 5.5 billion. Snus 240.4 - 227.9 = 12.5 million cans. Europe smoke-free 8,127 / 16,854 = 48.2%, about half. Cigarette decline 2% to 3% of 607,367 = 12,147 to 18,221 million units. Operating cash flow over R&D 12,233 / 756 = 16.2 times. Blocked markets 440 / 2,587 = 17%, about a sixth. Market cap against peers 296.88 / 119.41 = 2.5 times British American Tobacco; 296.88 / 114.91 = 2.6 times Altria. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA 43,963 / 17,375 = 2.53. Interest 966 / 14,892 = 6.5% of operating income. Guidance midpoints: (8.35 + 8.50) / 2 = 8.43, reported (7.28 + 7.43) / 2 = 7.36, gap 8.43 - 7.36 = 1.07; earlier adjusted midpoints (8.38 + 8.53) / 2 = 8.46, (8.31 + 8.46) / 2 = 8.39, (8.26 + 8.41) / 2 = 8.34; 8.43 / 7.54 - 1 = 11.8% - growth rates, volumes, margins and excise. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in PMI's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, the recast segment schedules, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
Sources
Generated September 26, 2026