Intel Foundry (external)Thin moat

Intel (INTC) — moat facet

Intel's foundry sold $307 million to outside customers in 2025 and lost $10.3 billion making chips for Intel.

Intel Foundry is the company's manufacturing arm, and on the segment chart it appears only as its outside revenue, because almost everything else is sales to Intel's own product groups. External revenue was $547 million in 2023, $159 million in 2024 and $307 million in 20251, against total segment revenue of $18,504 million, $17,317 million and $17,826 million2. About 98% of the foundry's revenue is internal3.

Intel Foundry revenue ($M)18,504Total 2023547External 202317,317Total 2024159External 202417,826Total 2025307External 2025Intel Form 10-K FY2025, Note 3
External revenue is barely visible.

What is inside is wafer fabrication, advanced packaging, chiplet integration and design enablement services4, the whole manufacturing system that makes Intel's processors. Intel estimates that the substantial majority of its consolidated depreciation expense is incurred by Intel Foundry5.

The history is short as a reported business. Intel's internal foundry operating model took effect in 20246, turning the factories into a segment that charges the product groups for what it makes. Before that, the costs sat inside the product segments. The external business existed on a small scale, and the FY2025 10-K restated earlier external figures downward7.

How it is paid depends on the customer. Intel's product groups pay internal prices; outside customers pay for wafers, packaging and test. In the second quarter of 2026 external revenue was $293 million, primarily because Altera, 51% of which Intel sold to Silver Lake, became an external customer89.

Profitability is deeply negative. The segment lost $7,083 million in 2023, $13,291 million in 2024 and $10,318 million in 202510, an operating loss of 38%, 77% and 58% of revenue11. In the second quarter of 2026 the loss narrowed to $2,089 million, 36% of revenue1213.

Growth depends entirely on customers Intel does not yet have. Its 10-K says it has been unsuccessful to date in securing any significant external foundry customers14. In 2026 it committed to completing Intel 14A, with high-volume ramps in 202815, and Piper Sandler reported eight large companies evaluating it with no anchor customer16.

The outlook is binary. With an external customer of scale, the foundry becomes the second business the market is pricing in; without one, it remains a cost centre that lost $10,318 million in 202517. What decides the verdict is external revenue excluding Altera: a named, unrelated customer adding more than $1 billion a year would change it.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Losses narrowing in 2026; external revenue rising mostly on Altera.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Intel Foundry external revenue, full year
$307M (2025); $159M in 2024

The outside business the whole strategy depends on; several billion a year would make the foundry a real business.

Source: Intel Form 10-K, FY2025 ↗
References
  1. ReportedExternal revenue was $547 million in 2023, $159 million in 2024 and $307 million in 2025, against total segment revenue of $18,504 million, $17,317 million and $17,826 million.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A and Note 3: segment revenue, operating income and drivers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedExternal revenue was $547 million in 2023, $159 million in 2024 and $307 million in 2025, against total segment revenue of $18,504 million, $17,317 million and $17,826 million.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A and Note 3: segment revenue, operating income and drivers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcAbout 98% of the foundry's revenue is internal.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Intel's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Segment margins 2025: Client Computing 9,317 / 32,228 = 28.9% (2024: 11,594 / 33,346 = 34.8%; Q2 2026: 2,343 / 8,877 = 26.4%); Data Center and AI 945 / 15,980 = 5.9% (2023), 1,414 / 16,125 = 8.8% (2024), 3,422 / 16,919 = 20.2% (2025), 2,474 / 6,262 = 39.5% (Q2 2026); Intel Products 12,739 / 49,147 = 25.9%. Revenue shares 2025: client 32,228 / 52,853 = 61.0%; data center 16,919 / 52,853 = 32.0%; together 49,147 / 52,853 = 93.0%. Client growth Q2 2026: 8,877 / 7,871 - 1 = 12.8%. Foundry: internal revenue 17,826 - 307 = 17,519, 17,519 / 17,826 = 98.3%; external share 307 / 17,826 = 1.7%; operating losses 7,083 + 13,291 + 10,318 = 30,692. Intel share of x86 server revenue Q1 2026: 100 - 46.2 = 53.8%. Revenue 2025 against 2021: 52,853 / 79,024 - 1 = -33.1%. Headcount 82.3 / 124.8 - 1 = -34%. Government stake 433.3M x $127.39 = about 55.2 bn; purchase funds 5.7 + 3.2 = 8.9 bn. Warrants 241M x (127.39 - 20.00) = about 25.9 bn. Nvidia stake 215M x 127.39 = about 27.4 bn; 215 / 4,994 = 4.3%. Backers 11.0 + 8.9 + 5.0 + 2.0 = 26.9 bn. Apollo 14.2 - 11.0 = 3.2 bn. Mobileye 100% - 23% = 77%. Net debt end-2025: (2,499 + 44,086) - (14,265 + 23,151) = 46,585 - 37,416 = 9,169; 27 June 2026: (1,988 + 48,549) - (12,874 + 16,853) = 50,537 - 29,727 = 20,810. Shares: diluted 4,530 / 4,090 - 1 = 10.8% (2021-2025); outstanding June 2026 5,043 against 4,090 diluted in 2021 = 23% more. China share of revenue 12,694 / 52,853 = 24.0% (2025); 15,532 / 53,101 = 29.2% (2024); China 12,694 / 22,961 - 1 = -44.7% (2021-2025). Gross margin 43,815 / 79,024 = 55.4% (2021); 21,711 / 54,228 = 40.0% (2023). R&D 16,546 - 13,774 = 2,772; R&D share of revenue 13,774 / 52,853 = 26.1% (2025), 16,546 / 53,101 = 31.2% (2024). Operating cash flow to gross capital spending 9,697 / 17,672 = 0.55. All Other external revenue: 54,228 - 32,305 - 15,980 - 547 = 5,396 (2023); 53,101 - 33,346 - 16,125 - 159 = 3,471 (2024); 52,853 - 32,228 - 16,919 - 307 = 3,399 (2025). Trailing EPS to June 2026: -0.06 - (-0.19 - 0.67) + (-0.73 - 2.16) = -2.09. Market value 669.37 / 86.48 = 7.7 times end-2024; share price 127.39 / 29.23 = 4.4 times the 52-week low - segment margins, revenue mix and market shares. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Intel's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases, prepared remarks and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  4. ReportedWhat is inside is wafer fabrication, advanced packaging, chiplet integration and design enablement services, the whole manufacturing system that makes Intel's processors.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1 business: products, process technology, competition, manufacturing and customers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIntel estimates that the substantial majority of its consolidated depreciation expense is incurred by Intel Foundry.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A and Note 3: segment revenue, operating income and drivers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIntel's internal foundry operating model took effect in 2024, turning the factories into a segment that charges the product groups for what it makes.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2024 - the 2024 restructuring, dividend suspension, goodwill impairment and headcount. — FY2024 · publ. January 2025 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe external business existed on a small scale, and the FY2025 10-K restated earlier external figures downward.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1 business: products, process technology, competition, manufacturing and customers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 external revenue was $293 million, primarily because Altera, 51% of which Intel sold to Silver Lake, became an external customer.
    Intel Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 27 June 2026 - segments, the Ireland SCIP repurchase, escrowed shares, Intel 14A, customer deposits and debt. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 external revenue was $293 million, primarily because Altera, 51% of which Intel sold to Silver Lake, became an external customer.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A and Note 3: segment revenue, operating income and drivers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedThe segment lost $7,083 million in 2023, $13,291 million in 2024 and $10,318 million in 2025, an operating loss of 38%, 77% and 58% of revenue.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A and Note 3: segment revenue, operating income and drivers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedThe segment lost $7,083 million in 2023, $13,291 million in 2024 and $10,318 million in 2025, an operating loss of 38%, 77% and 58% of revenue.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A and Note 3: segment revenue, operating income and drivers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 the loss narrowed to $2,089 million, 36% of revenue.
    Intel second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 the loss narrowed to $2,089 million, 36% of revenue.
    Intel Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 27 June 2026 - segments, the Ireland SCIP repurchase, escrowed shares, Intel 14A, customer deposits and debt. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedIts 10-K says it has been unsuccessful to date in securing any significant external foundry customers.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1A risk factors and legal proceedings. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  15. ReportedIn 2026 it committed to completing Intel 14A, with high-volume ramps in 2028, and Piper Sandler reported eight large companies evaluating it with no anchor customer.
    Intel Q2 2026 earnings call prepared remarks (CEO and CFO). — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  16. Third-party estimateIn 2026 it committed to completing Intel 14A, with high-volume ramps in 2028, and Piper Sandler reported eight large companies evaluating it with no anchor customer.
    Wccftech, citing Piper Sandler: Intel 14A being evaluated by Amazon, Apple, AMD, Google, Tesla, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Qualcomm, with no definitive anchor customer. — September 2026 · publ. 18 September 2026 · source ↗
  17. ReportedWith an external customer of scale, the foundry becomes the second business the market is pricing in; without one, it remains a cost centre that lost $10,318 million in 2025.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1 business: products, process technology, competition, manufacturing and customers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026