Client: Two-Thirds of PCs, for NowNarrow moat

Intel (INTC) — moat facet

Intel still makes about 70% of the world's PC processors, and that share is lower than at any time since the mid-1990s.

The business that pays Intel's bills is the PC processor, and it is still a majority position. Mercury Research estimated Intel at 69.7% of x86 client processors in the second quarter of 2026, with AMD at 30.3%1. Intel's Client Computing Group sold $32,228 million in 2025 and earned $9,317 million of operating income2, a margin of about 28.9%3.

x86 client CPU share, Q2 2026 (%)Intel69.7%AMD30.3%Mercury Research via Basic Tutorials; AMD 28.9% of notebooks, +8.4 points
Still seven in ten PCs, and slipping.

That franchise rests on thirty years of installed base: the laptops, desktops and corporate fleets built on Intel processors, the software tested on them, and the PC makers whose designs start from Intel's reference platforms. In the second quarter of 2026 about two thirds of Intel's client revenue came from AI PCs, and its Core Ultra Series 3 was in more than 400 designs4.

The weakness is the direction of share. AMD passed 30% of client processors for the first time in the second quarter of 2026, and reached 28.9% of notebooks, up 8.4 points in a year5. Notebooks were the part of the market where Intel's relationships with PC makers were strongest.

Price has held better than volume. In the second quarter client revenue was $7.7 billion, with average selling prices up 27% and volume down 8%6, because demand exceeded what Intel's factories could supply7. A shortage lets a supplier raise prices while losing units; it is not the same as winning.

The client business was larger and more profitable before AMD's resurgence. On the old segment structure it sold $40,057 million in 2020 and earned $15,129 million of operating income8. The current group, which also includes networking products moved in during 2025, sold $32,228 million and earned $9,317 million in 20259. Even allowing for the reorganisation, the business earns about $6 billion a year less than at its peak.

Intel's client share is the number that tests this franchise. It fell below 70% in the second quarter of 202610; a fall below 65% while supply is still tight would say PC makers are choosing AMD, not just settling for it.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

Client share fell below 70% in Q2 2026; notebooks lost 8.4 points to AMD in a year.

The number that tests this moat
Third-party estimate
Intel share of x86 client CPUs, latest quarter
69.7% (Q2 2026, Mercury Research)

The PC franchise's size; a fall below 65% while supply is tight would mean PC makers are choosing AMD.

Source: Mercury Research client shares (Basic Tutorials) ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Notebooks: AMD Up 8.4 Points in a Year
AMD took 8.4 points of notebook processors from Intel in one year, in the segment Intel's customer relationships were meant to protect.
References
  1. Third-party estimateMercury Research estimated Intel at 69.7% of x86 client processors in the second quarter of 2026, with AMD at 30.3%.
    Basic Tutorials, Mercury Research Q2 2026 client shares: AMD 30.3% of x86 client CPUs, 34.9% of desktop and 28.9% of notebook. — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIntel's Client Computing Group sold $32,228 million in 2025 and earned $9,317 million of operating income, a margin of about 28.9%.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1 business: products, process technology, competition, manufacturing and customers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcIntel's Client Computing Group sold $32,228 million in 2025 and earned $9,317 million of operating income, a margin of about 28.9%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Intel's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Segment margins 2025: Client Computing 9,317 / 32,228 = 28.9% (2024: 11,594 / 33,346 = 34.8%; Q2 2026: 2,343 / 8,877 = 26.4%); Data Center and AI 945 / 15,980 = 5.9% (2023), 1,414 / 16,125 = 8.8% (2024), 3,422 / 16,919 = 20.2% (2025), 2,474 / 6,262 = 39.5% (Q2 2026); Intel Products 12,739 / 49,147 = 25.9%. Revenue shares 2025: client 32,228 / 52,853 = 61.0%; data center 16,919 / 52,853 = 32.0%; together 49,147 / 52,853 = 93.0%. Client growth Q2 2026: 8,877 / 7,871 - 1 = 12.8%. Foundry: internal revenue 17,826 - 307 = 17,519, 17,519 / 17,826 = 98.3%; external share 307 / 17,826 = 1.7%; operating losses 7,083 + 13,291 + 10,318 = 30,692. Intel share of x86 server revenue Q1 2026: 100 - 46.2 = 53.8%. Revenue 2025 against 2021: 52,853 / 79,024 - 1 = -33.1%. Headcount 82.3 / 124.8 - 1 = -34%. Government stake 433.3M x $127.39 = about 55.2 bn; purchase funds 5.7 + 3.2 = 8.9 bn. Warrants 241M x (127.39 - 20.00) = about 25.9 bn. Nvidia stake 215M x 127.39 = about 27.4 bn; 215 / 4,994 = 4.3%. Backers 11.0 + 8.9 + 5.0 + 2.0 = 26.9 bn. Apollo 14.2 - 11.0 = 3.2 bn. Mobileye 100% - 23% = 77%. Net debt end-2025: (2,499 + 44,086) - (14,265 + 23,151) = 46,585 - 37,416 = 9,169; 27 June 2026: (1,988 + 48,549) - (12,874 + 16,853) = 50,537 - 29,727 = 20,810. Shares: diluted 4,530 / 4,090 - 1 = 10.8% (2021-2025); outstanding June 2026 5,043 against 4,090 diluted in 2021 = 23% more. China share of revenue 12,694 / 52,853 = 24.0% (2025); 15,532 / 53,101 = 29.2% (2024); China 12,694 / 22,961 - 1 = -44.7% (2021-2025). Gross margin 43,815 / 79,024 = 55.4% (2021); 21,711 / 54,228 = 40.0% (2023). R&D 16,546 - 13,774 = 2,772; R&D share of revenue 13,774 / 52,853 = 26.1% (2025), 16,546 / 53,101 = 31.2% (2024). Operating cash flow to gross capital spending 9,697 / 17,672 = 0.55. All Other external revenue: 54,228 - 32,305 - 15,980 - 547 = 5,396 (2023); 53,101 - 33,346 - 16,125 - 159 = 3,471 (2024); 52,853 - 32,228 - 16,919 - 307 = 3,399 (2025). Trailing EPS to June 2026: -0.06 - (-0.19 - 0.67) + (-0.73 - 2.16) = -2.09. Market value 669.37 / 86.48 = 7.7 times end-2024; share price 127.39 / 29.23 = 4.4 times the 52-week low - segment margins, revenue mix and market shares. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Intel's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases, prepared remarks and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  4. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 about two thirds of Intel's client revenue came from AI PCs, and its Core Ultra Series 3 was in more than 400 designs.
    Intel Q2 2026 earnings call prepared remarks (CEO and CFO). — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. Third-party estimateAMD passed 30% of client processors for the first time in the second quarter of 2026, and reached 28.9% of notebooks, up 8.4 points in a year.
    Basic Tutorials, Mercury Research Q2 2026 client shares: AMD 30.3% of x86 client CPUs, 34.9% of desktop and 28.9% of notebook. — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIn the second quarter client revenue was $7.7 billion, with average selling prices up 27% and volume down 8%, because demand exceeded what Intel's factories could supply.
    Intel Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 27 June 2026 - segments, the Ireland SCIP repurchase, escrowed shares, Intel 14A, customer deposits and debt. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIn the second quarter client revenue was $7.7 billion, with average selling prices up 27% and volume down 8%, because demand exceeded what Intel's factories could supply.
    Intel Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 27 June 2026 - segments, the Ireland SCIP repurchase, escrowed shares, Intel 14A, customer deposits and debt. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedOn the old segment structure it sold $40,057 million in 2020 and earned $15,129 million of operating income.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2021 - segment results for 2019-2021 on the old structure. — FY2021 · publ. January 2022 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThe current group, which also includes networking products moved in during 2025, sold $32,228 million and earned $9,317 million in 2025.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1 business: products, process technology, competition, manufacturing and customers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  10. Third-party estimateIt fell below 70% in the second quarter of 2026; a fall below 65% while supply is still tight would say PC makers are choosing AMD, not just settling for it.
    Basic Tutorials, Mercury Research Q2 2026 client shares: AMD 30.3% of x86 client CPUs, 34.9% of desktop and 28.9% of notebook. — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026