⚠ Adjusted Free Cash Flow Negative Three Years RunningHigh threat

Intel (INTC) — threat to the moat

Intel has spent more than it generated for three years running and plans to spend more.

Intel's adjusted free cash flow was negative $2,228 million in 2024 and negative $1,612 million in 20251. In the second quarter of 2026 it was negative $8,419 million2, inflated by the $14.2 billion Ireland buyback3.

Adjusted free cash flow ($M)-2,2282024-1,6122025-8,419Q2 2026Intel FY2025 and Q2 2026 results releases; Q2 includes the Apollo buyback
Negative every period shown.

The gap has been filled with debt, partners and share sales. Long-term debt was $48,549 million at 27 June 20264, and Intel issued $6.5 billion of new senior notes in 20265.

A capital-intensive business can run negative free cash flow while it builds, if the building produces returns. Intel's return on invested capital, computed from EDGAR, was negative in 2024 and 20256.

Operating cash flow shows how far the business has fallen. It was $11,471 million in 2023, $8,288 million in 2024 and $9,697 million in 20257. The first quarter of 2026 had adjusted free cash flow of negative $2,016 million8 before the Apollo buyback made the second quarter far worse.

The first full year of positive adjusted free cash flow is the milestone. The raised capital plan makes 2026 unlikely to be it.

References
  1. ReportedIntel's adjusted free cash flow was negative $2,228 million in 2024 and negative $1,612 million in 2025.
    Intel fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - statements, capital spending and adjusted free cash flow. — FY2025 · publ. 22 January 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 it was negative $8,419 million, inflated by the $14.2 billion Ireland buyback.
    Intel second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 it was negative $8,419 million, inflated by the $14.2 billion Ireland buyback.
    Intel Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 27 June 2026 - segments, the Ireland SCIP repurchase, escrowed shares, Intel 14A, customer deposits and debt. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedLong-term debt was $48,549 million at 27 June 2026, and Intel issued $6.5 billion of new senior notes in 2026.
    Intel second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedLong-term debt was $48,549 million at 27 June 2026, and Intel issued $6.5 billion of new senior notes in 2026.
    Intel Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 27 June 2026 - segments, the Ireland SCIP repurchase, escrowed shares, Intel 14A, customer deposits and debt. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. Moat Explorer calcIntel's return on invested capital, computed from EDGAR, was negative in 2024 and 2025.
    Moat Explorer calculation, tools_roic_edgar.py on SEC EDGAR XBRL for CIK 50863: return on invested capital 15.6% (2015), 13.3% (2016), 12.4% (2017), 20.0% (2018), 17.7% (2019), 16.8% (2020), 13.8% (2021); not computable in 2022 and 2023; negative in 2024 (-6.0%) and 2025 (-0.9%). — 2015-2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: NOPAT (operating income x (1 - effective tax rate)) divided by average operating invested capital (total assets less current liabilities less cash), from SEC EDGAR XBRL via tools_roic_edgar.py. 2022 and 2023 are not computable from the filed tags; 2024 and 2025 are operating losses.
  7. ReportedIt was $11,471 million in 2023, $8,288 million in 2024 and $9,697 million in 2025.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1 business: products, process technology, competition, manufacturing and customers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe first quarter of 2026 had adjusted free cash flow of negative $2,016 million before the Apollo buyback made the second quarter far worse.
    Intel first-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 2026 · publ. 23 April 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026