⚠ Designs Lost in a Shortage Stay LostModerate threat

Intel (INTC) — threat to the moat

Every PC design that switched to AMD while Intel was short of chips is likely to stay with AMD for its whole life.

A shortage flatters a supplier's prices and damages its share, and the damage outlasts the shortage. Intel says market demand exceeded its available product supply in the second quarter of 2026 in both client and data center1. Customers who could not get enough Intel chips had one alternative in x86.

Capital spending ($bn)25.12024 gross17.72025 gross>202026 outlookIntel FY2025 results release; Q2 2026 prepared remarks
Cut in 2025, rising again in 2026.

The customers who matter are few and large. Intel's three largest customers accounted for 43% of net revenue in 20252, and each of them sells machines built on both Intel and AMD processors. A platform switched during a shortage is usually kept for its life.

Intel is spending to close the gap, raising its 2026 capital expenditure outlook to more than $20 billion3. New capacity takes years.

Intel has also been beating its own forecasts, which says demand was underestimated as much as supply was short. The first quarter of 2026 was, in Intel's words, a sixth consecutive quarter of revenue above its expectations4: it had guided $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion5 and reported $13,577 million6. A supplier that keeps underestimating demand also keeps under-ordering capacity.

The trace would appear in AMD's share of notebooks, 28.9% in the second quarter of 20267. If it keeps rising after Intel's supply catches up, the designs lost in the shortage were not coming back.

References
  1. ReportedIntel says market demand exceeded its available product supply in the second quarter of 2026 in both client and data center.
    Intel Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 27 June 2026 - segments, the Ireland SCIP repurchase, escrowed shares, Intel 14A, customer deposits and debt. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIntel's three largest customers accounted for 43% of net revenue in 2025, and each of them sells machines built on both Intel and AMD processors.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1 business: products, process technology, competition, manufacturing and customers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIntel is spending to close the gap, raising its 2026 capital expenditure outlook to more than $20 billion.
    Intel Q2 2026 earnings call prepared remarks (CEO and CFO). — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe first quarter of 2026 was, in Intel's words, a sixth consecutive quarter of revenue above its expectations: it had guided $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion and reported $13,577 million.
    Intel first-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 2026 · publ. 23 April 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe first quarter of 2026 was, in Intel's words, a sixth consecutive quarter of revenue above its expectations: it had guided $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion and reported $13,577 million.
    Intel fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - statements, capital spending and adjusted free cash flow. — FY2025 · publ. 22 January 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe first quarter of 2026 was, in Intel's words, a sixth consecutive quarter of revenue above its expectations: it had guided $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion and reported $13,577 million.
    Intel first-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 2026 · publ. 23 April 2026 · source ↗
  7. Third-party estimateThe trace would appear in AMD's share of notebooks, 28.9% in the second quarter of 2026.
    Basic Tutorials, Mercury Research Q2 2026 client shares: AMD 30.3% of x86 client CPUs, 34.9% of desktop and 28.9% of notebook. — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026