Ninety-Eight Percent of Foundry Revenue Is IntelThin moat

Intel (INTC) — moat facet

Intel's foundry sold $17.8 billion in 2025, and about $17.5 billion of it was to Intel.

Intel Foundry reported $17,826 million of revenue in 20251, and almost all of it came from Intel. Revenue from external customers totalled $307 million in 2025, $159 million in 2024 and $547 million in 20232, so about 98% of the segment's revenue was sales to Intel's own product groups3.

Intel Foundry operating loss ($M)-7,0832023-13,2912024-10,3182025-2,089Q2 2026Intel Form 10-K FY2025; Q2 2026 results release
About $30.7 billion lost in three years.

That makes the foundry a cost center with a revenue line. Its operating loss was $10,318 million in 2025, $13,291 million in 2024 and $7,083 million in 20234: an operating loss of 58% of revenue in 2025 and 77% in 20245. Over the three years the losses add up to about $30.7 billion6.

Intel is candid about it. Its 10-K says it has been unsuccessful to date in securing any significant external foundry customers for any of its nodes7, and that nearly all of the Intel Foundry business supports internal manufacturing for Intel Products8.

There has been some improvement. External foundry revenue was $293 million in the second quarter of 2026, primarily because of Altera's transition to an external customer after Intel sold 51% of it9, and the operating loss narrowed to 36% of revenue from 72%10. Altera, still 49% owned by Intel11, is not the kind of customer that proves a foundry.

The foundry's disclosures have also moved. The FY2024 10-K reported external foundry revenue on an older basis; the FY2025 10-K restated 2023 and 2024 to $547 million and $159 million12. Even on the more generous earlier figures, external revenue was under $1 billion a year, against segment revenue near $18 billion.

The moat here is manufacturing depth without a market. The number that would change that is external foundry revenue from a customer Intel does not own, which the filings do not yet show at any meaningful scale.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

External revenue rose in 2026, mostly from Altera, which Intel still half-owns.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Intel Foundry operating loss, latest quarter
$2,089M, 36% of revenue (Q2 2026); 72% a year earlier

The cost of running the factories; a loss below 20% of revenue would mean outside volume or scale is arriving.

Source: Intel Q2 2026 results release ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
No Significant External Customer, in Intel's Own Words
Intel says in its own annual report that it has no significant outside customer for any of its manufacturing processes.
References
  1. ReportedIntel Foundry reported $17,826 million of revenue in 2025, and almost all of it came from Intel.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A and Note 3: segment revenue, operating income and drivers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedRevenue from external customers totalled $307 million in 2025, $159 million in 2024 and $547 million in 2023, so about 98% of the segment's revenue was sales to Intel's own product groups.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A and Note 3: segment revenue, operating income and drivers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcRevenue from external customers totalled $307 million in 2025, $159 million in 2024 and $547 million in 2023, so about 98% of the segment's revenue was sales to Intel's own product groups.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Intel's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Segment margins 2025: Client Computing 9,317 / 32,228 = 28.9% (2024: 11,594 / 33,346 = 34.8%; Q2 2026: 2,343 / 8,877 = 26.4%); Data Center and AI 945 / 15,980 = 5.9% (2023), 1,414 / 16,125 = 8.8% (2024), 3,422 / 16,919 = 20.2% (2025), 2,474 / 6,262 = 39.5% (Q2 2026); Intel Products 12,739 / 49,147 = 25.9%. Revenue shares 2025: client 32,228 / 52,853 = 61.0%; data center 16,919 / 52,853 = 32.0%; together 49,147 / 52,853 = 93.0%. Client growth Q2 2026: 8,877 / 7,871 - 1 = 12.8%. Foundry: internal revenue 17,826 - 307 = 17,519, 17,519 / 17,826 = 98.3%; external share 307 / 17,826 = 1.7%; operating losses 7,083 + 13,291 + 10,318 = 30,692. Intel share of x86 server revenue Q1 2026: 100 - 46.2 = 53.8%. Revenue 2025 against 2021: 52,853 / 79,024 - 1 = -33.1%. Headcount 82.3 / 124.8 - 1 = -34%. Government stake 433.3M x $127.39 = about 55.2 bn; purchase funds 5.7 + 3.2 = 8.9 bn. Warrants 241M x (127.39 - 20.00) = about 25.9 bn. Nvidia stake 215M x 127.39 = about 27.4 bn; 215 / 4,994 = 4.3%. Backers 11.0 + 8.9 + 5.0 + 2.0 = 26.9 bn. Apollo 14.2 - 11.0 = 3.2 bn. Mobileye 100% - 23% = 77%. Net debt end-2025: (2,499 + 44,086) - (14,265 + 23,151) = 46,585 - 37,416 = 9,169; 27 June 2026: (1,988 + 48,549) - (12,874 + 16,853) = 50,537 - 29,727 = 20,810. Shares: diluted 4,530 / 4,090 - 1 = 10.8% (2021-2025); outstanding June 2026 5,043 against 4,090 diluted in 2021 = 23% more. China share of revenue 12,694 / 52,853 = 24.0% (2025); 15,532 / 53,101 = 29.2% (2024); China 12,694 / 22,961 - 1 = -44.7% (2021-2025). Gross margin 43,815 / 79,024 = 55.4% (2021); 21,711 / 54,228 = 40.0% (2023). R&D 16,546 - 13,774 = 2,772; R&D share of revenue 13,774 / 52,853 = 26.1% (2025), 16,546 / 53,101 = 31.2% (2024). Operating cash flow to gross capital spending 9,697 / 17,672 = 0.55. All Other external revenue: 54,228 - 32,305 - 15,980 - 547 = 5,396 (2023); 53,101 - 33,346 - 16,125 - 159 = 3,471 (2024); 52,853 - 32,228 - 16,919 - 307 = 3,399 (2025). Trailing EPS to June 2026: -0.06 - (-0.19 - 0.67) + (-0.73 - 2.16) = -2.09. Market value 669.37 / 86.48 = 7.7 times end-2024; share price 127.39 / 29.23 = 4.4 times the 52-week low - segment margins, revenue mix and market shares. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Intel's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases, prepared remarks and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  4. ReportedIts operating loss was $10,318 million in 2025, $13,291 million in 2024 and $7,083 million in 2023: an operating loss of 58% of revenue in 2025 and 77% in 2024.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1 business: products, process technology, competition, manufacturing and customers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIts operating loss was $10,318 million in 2025, $13,291 million in 2024 and $7,083 million in 2023: an operating loss of 58% of revenue in 2025 and 77% in 2024.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1 business: products, process technology, competition, manufacturing and customers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  6. Moat Explorer calcOver the three years the losses add up to about $30.7 billion.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Intel's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Segment margins 2025: Client Computing 9,317 / 32,228 = 28.9% (2024: 11,594 / 33,346 = 34.8%; Q2 2026: 2,343 / 8,877 = 26.4%); Data Center and AI 945 / 15,980 = 5.9% (2023), 1,414 / 16,125 = 8.8% (2024), 3,422 / 16,919 = 20.2% (2025), 2,474 / 6,262 = 39.5% (Q2 2026); Intel Products 12,739 / 49,147 = 25.9%. Revenue shares 2025: client 32,228 / 52,853 = 61.0%; data center 16,919 / 52,853 = 32.0%; together 49,147 / 52,853 = 93.0%. Client growth Q2 2026: 8,877 / 7,871 - 1 = 12.8%. Foundry: internal revenue 17,826 - 307 = 17,519, 17,519 / 17,826 = 98.3%; external share 307 / 17,826 = 1.7%; operating losses 7,083 + 13,291 + 10,318 = 30,692. Intel share of x86 server revenue Q1 2026: 100 - 46.2 = 53.8%. Revenue 2025 against 2021: 52,853 / 79,024 - 1 = -33.1%. Headcount 82.3 / 124.8 - 1 = -34%. Government stake 433.3M x $127.39 = about 55.2 bn; purchase funds 5.7 + 3.2 = 8.9 bn. Warrants 241M x (127.39 - 20.00) = about 25.9 bn. Nvidia stake 215M x 127.39 = about 27.4 bn; 215 / 4,994 = 4.3%. Backers 11.0 + 8.9 + 5.0 + 2.0 = 26.9 bn. Apollo 14.2 - 11.0 = 3.2 bn. Mobileye 100% - 23% = 77%. Net debt end-2025: (2,499 + 44,086) - (14,265 + 23,151) = 46,585 - 37,416 = 9,169; 27 June 2026: (1,988 + 48,549) - (12,874 + 16,853) = 50,537 - 29,727 = 20,810. Shares: diluted 4,530 / 4,090 - 1 = 10.8% (2021-2025); outstanding June 2026 5,043 against 4,090 diluted in 2021 = 23% more. China share of revenue 12,694 / 52,853 = 24.0% (2025); 15,532 / 53,101 = 29.2% (2024); China 12,694 / 22,961 - 1 = -44.7% (2021-2025). Gross margin 43,815 / 79,024 = 55.4% (2021); 21,711 / 54,228 = 40.0% (2023). R&D 16,546 - 13,774 = 2,772; R&D share of revenue 13,774 / 52,853 = 26.1% (2025), 16,546 / 53,101 = 31.2% (2024). Operating cash flow to gross capital spending 9,697 / 17,672 = 0.55. All Other external revenue: 54,228 - 32,305 - 15,980 - 547 = 5,396 (2023); 53,101 - 33,346 - 16,125 - 159 = 3,471 (2024); 52,853 - 32,228 - 16,919 - 307 = 3,399 (2025). Trailing EPS to June 2026: -0.06 - (-0.19 - 0.67) + (-0.73 - 2.16) = -2.09. Market value 669.37 / 86.48 = 7.7 times end-2024; share price 127.39 / 29.23 = 4.4 times the 52-week low - other arithmetic. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Intel's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases, prepared remarks and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  7. ReportedIts 10-K says it has been unsuccessful to date in securing any significant external foundry customers for any of its nodes, and that nearly all of the Intel Foundry business supports internal manufacturing for Intel Products.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1A risk factors and legal proceedings. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedIts 10-K says it has been unsuccessful to date in securing any significant external foundry customers for any of its nodes, and that nearly all of the Intel Foundry business supports internal manufacturing for Intel Products.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1A risk factors and legal proceedings. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedExternal foundry revenue was $293 million in the second quarter of 2026, primarily because of Altera's transition to an external customer after Intel sold 51% of it, and the operating loss narrowed to 36% of revenue from 72%.
    Intel Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 27 June 2026 - segments, the Ireland SCIP repurchase, escrowed shares, Intel 14A, customer deposits and debt. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedExternal foundry revenue was $293 million in the second quarter of 2026, primarily because of Altera's transition to an external customer after Intel sold 51% of it, and the operating loss narrowed to 36% of revenue from 72%.
    Intel Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 27 June 2026 - segments, the Ireland SCIP repurchase, escrowed shares, Intel 14A, customer deposits and debt. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedAltera, still 49% owned by Intel, is not the kind of customer that proves a foundry.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A and Note 3: segment revenue, operating income and drivers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedThe FY2024 10-K reported external foundry revenue on an older basis; the FY2025 10-K restated 2023 and 2024 to $547 million and $159 million.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1 business: products, process technology, competition, manufacturing and customers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026