⚠ Wind Has a Service Base Too, and the Segment Still Loses MoneyModerate threat

GE Vernova (GEV) — threat to the moat

GE Vernova services 24,000 onshore wind turbines and its Wind segment still lost $598 million of EBITDA in 2025.

The installed-base argument does not rescue Wind. GE Vernova services about 24,000 of its 59,000 installed onshore wind turbines1, and Wind services revenue was $1,859 million in 20252. Yet the Wind segment reported EBITDA of minus $598 million in 2025 and minus $588 million in 20243.

Wind segment EBITDA ($M)1762021-1,7102022-1,0332023-5882024-5982025GE Vernova Form 10-K FY2025 and Form 10 information statement; losses shown as magnitudes
Four straight years of losses despite the service base.

The losses come mostly from offshore contracts: $637 million of incremental contract losses in 2025, $1,005 million in 2024 and $379 million in 20234. But the service base did not offset them, which says something about how much a wind service agreement is worth next to a gas one.

This matters for the broader thesis because it shows that a large fleet is not a moat by itself. The fleet has to earn a service margin, and in wind the customers and competitors have kept that margin thin.

The comparison with gas is stark. Wind services revenue of $1,859 million in 20255 was about 14% of the Power segment's $13,081 million67, on an installed base that numbers more than eight times as many machines. A wind turbine generates far less service revenue than a gas turbine, which is why a large wind fleet does not add up to a large wind annuity.

The 2026 guidance calls for a Wind EBITDA loss of about $400 million8. A service base of 24,000 turbines that still leaves the segment losing money in 2027 would confirm that wind's installed base is not the asset gas's is.

References
  1. ReportedGE Vernova services about 24,000 of its 59,000 installed onshore wind turbines, and Wind services revenue was $1,859 million in 2025.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, installed base, competitors and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedGE Vernova services about 24,000 of its 59,000 installed onshore wind turbines, and Wind services revenue was $1,859 million in 2025.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - segment revenue, segment EBITDA and the reconciliation to adjusted EBITDA. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedYet the Wind segment reported EBITDA of minus $598 million in 2025 and minus $588 million in 2024.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - segment revenue, segment EBITDA and the reconciliation to adjusted EBITDA. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe losses come mostly from offshore contracts: $637 million of incremental contract losses in 2025, $1,005 million in 2024 and $379 million in 2023.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - segment revenue, segment EBITDA and the reconciliation to adjusted EBITDA. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedWind services revenue of $1,859 million in 2025 was about 14% of the Power segment's $13,081 million, on an installed base that numbers more than eight times as many machines.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - segment revenue, segment EBITDA and the reconciliation to adjusted EBITDA. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedWind services revenue of $1,859 million in 2025 was about 14% of the Power segment's $13,081 million, on an installed base that numbers more than eight times as many machines.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - segment revenue, segment EBITDA and the reconciliation to adjusted EBITDA. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  7. Moat Explorer calcWind services revenue of $1,859 million in 2025 was about 14% of the Power segment's $13,081 million, on an installed base that numbers more than eight times as many machines.
    Moat Explorer calculation from GE Vernova's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, the Form 10 information statement, results releases and market data ($ millions unless stated). Equipment gross profit = sales of equipment less cost of equipment: 18,831 - 18,654 = 177 (2021, 0.9%); 15,819 - 16,972 = -1,153 (2022, -7.3%); 18,258 - 18,705 = -447 (2023, -2.4%); 18,952 - 17,989 = 963 (2024, 5.1%); 20,934 - 18,759 = 2,175 (2025, 10.4%). Services gross profit: 14,175 - 9,407 = 4,768 (2021, 33.6%); 13,835 - 9,224 = 4,611 (2022, 33.3%); 14,981 - 9,716 = 5,265 (2023, 35.1%); 15,983 - 10,861 = 5,122 (2024, 32.0%); 17,134 - 11,774 = 5,360 (2025, 31.3%). Services share of gross profit 5,360 / 7,535 = 71.1% (2025); 5,122 / 6,085 = 84.2% (2024); 5,265 / 4,818 = 109% (2023). Services share of revenue 17,134 / 38,068 = 45.0%. Power services share of Power revenue 13,081 / 19,767 = 66.2%. Gas Power share of revenue 16,006 / 38,068 = 42.0%. Gas turbines under long-term service agreements 1,800 / 7,000 = 26%; onshore wind turbines under service agreements 24,000 / 59,000 = 41%. RPO: services share 85,993 / 150,238 = 57.2%; services RPO growth 85,993 / 75,976 - 1 = 13.2%; equipment RPO growth 64,245 / 43,047 - 1 = 49.2%; total RPO growth 150,238 / 119,023 - 1 = 26.2%; Power share of RPO at 30 June 2026 111,649 / 176,284 = 63.3%; Power equipment RPO 24,707 / 12,461 = 1.98 times; 39,261 / 24,707 - 1 = 59%. Electrification RPO 34,667 / 8,971 = 3.9 times (2022-2025); 34,667 / 9,642 = 3.6 years of 2025 segment revenue. Services RPO beyond 15 years 100% - 91% = 9%. Gas turbine backlog plus slot reservations at 30 June 2026 53 + 63 = 116 GW; 116 / 20 GW a year = 5.8 years of output. Gas turbine orders 173 / 112 - 1 = 54% (units), 29.8 / 20.2 - 1 = 48% (GW). Operating cash flow less the increase in contract liabilities 4,987 - 8,019 = -3,032 (2025). Net cash = cash less borrowings: 8,848 - 289 = 8,559 (31 Dec 2025); 13,120 - 2,849 = 10,271 (30 June 2026). Contract liabilities / equity attributable 39,944 / 11,957 = 3.3 times; contract liabilities less cash 39,944 - 13,120 = 26,824. Geography 2025: US 17,341 / 38,068 = 45.6%; US growth 17,341 / 12,467 - 1 = 39.1% (2023-2025); US share of pre-tax income 78 / 2,828 = 2.8%. Wind segment EBITDA 2021-2025 176 - 1,710 - 1,033 - 588 - 598 = -3,753; Offshore Wind contract losses 637 + 1,005 + 379 = 2,021 (2023-2025); Offshore Wind revenue 652 / 1,377 - 1 = -52.7%; Wind orders in units 854 / 2,290 - 1 = -62.7% (2023-2025); Wind revenue 9,110 / 9,701 - 1 = -6.1%; H1 2026 Wind EBITDA margin -657 / 3,459 = -19.0%. Power share of 2025 segment EBITDA 2,902 / (2,902 - 598 + 1,433) = 77.7%. Segment revenue growth 2025: Power 19,767 / 18,127 - 1 = 9.0%; Electrification 9,642 / 7,550 - 1 = 27.7%; revenue 38,068 / 34,935 - 1 = 9.0%. Growth 2021-2025 a year: Electrification (9,642 / 5,292)^(1/4) - 1 = 16.2%; Power (19,767 / 16,729)^(1/4) - 1 = 4.3%; Electrification 2023-2025 9,642 / 6,378 - 1 = 51.2%. Grid Solutions 6,620 / 3,226 - 1 = 105% (2021-2025); Nuclear Power 1,018 / 699 - 1 = 45.6% (2022-2025); Steam Power 1,937 / 3,270 - 1 = -40.8% (2021-2025). Electrification segment assets 21,000 / 9,017 = 2.3 times. Return on invested capital: invested capital = total assets less current liabilities less cash: 63,016 - 40,972 - 8,848 = 13,196 (2025); 51,485 - 31,685 - 8,205 = 11,595 (2024); average 12,395.5. NOPAT at an assumed 21% tax rate on operating income 1,388 x 0.79 = 1,096.5, ROIC 1,096.5 / 12,395.5 = 8.8% (2025); 2024 on year-end capital 471 x 0.79 / 11,595 = 3.2%. Adjusted basis: (adjusted EBITDA 3,196 - depreciation and amortization 847) x 0.79 = 1,855.7, / 12,395.5 = 15.0%. Capex / revenue 1,277 / 38,068 = 3.4%; capex growth 1,277 / 744 - 1 = 72% (2023-2025). 2025 capital returns 275 + 3,316 = 3,591. Average 2025 buyback price 3,316 / 8.2M shares = about $404. Shares outstanding 266,333,581 / 275,880,314 - 1 = -3.5% (Dec 2024 - June 2026). Dividends 2025 4 x $0.25 = $1.00. Valuation: P/E = market value / net income: 90.60 / 1.552 = 58.4 (2024); 177.33 / 4.884 = 36.3 (2025); trailing 255.05 / 9.529 = 26.8; 2025 excluding the $2.9bn tax benefit 4,884 - 2,900 = 1,984, 177.33 / 1.984 = 89. P/S 90.60 / 34.935 = 2.59; 177.33 / 38.068 = 4.66; 255.05 / 41.367 = 6.17. Trailing revenue 38,068 + 20,442 - 17,143 = 41,367; trailing net income 4,884 + 5,413 - 768 = 9,529; trailing net income less the Prolec gain 9,529 - 3,992 = 5,537. Forward EPS 957.63 / 45.68 = 20.96. Analyst target 1,237.34 / 957.63 - 1 = 29%. Price 957.63 / 1,195.94 - 1 = -20% from the 52-week high. 2026 guidance: revenue midpoint (45.5 + 46.5) / 2 = 46.0bn; adjusted EBITDA at 12%-14% of 46.0bn = 5.5-6.4bn; free cash flow midpoint 12.0bn; H1 revenue 20,442 / 46,000 = 44%; H1 free cash flow 9,897 / 12,000 = 82%. Wind 2026 EBITDA loss about 400 against 2025 598. Services RPO / 2025 services revenue 85,993 / 17,134 = 5.0 times; services RPO beyond five years 100% - 52% = 48%. Electrification orders / revenue 19.3 / 9.642 = 2.0 times; Electrification services / revenue 2,263 / 9,642 = 23.5%; Electrification 2026 EBITDA at 18% of 14.5bn = 2.61bn. Prolec gain / trailing net income 3,992 / 9,529 = 42%. 2025 tax benefit / net income 2,900 / 4,884 = 59%. Gas turbine market share 64.5 - 18.5 = 46.0 for the other four of the top five. Share price 957.63 / 327.79 = 2.9 times. Cumulative segment EBITDA 2021-2025: Power 1,407 + 1,655 + 1,722 + 2,268 + 2,902 = 9,954; Electrification -461 - 164 + 234 + 679 + 1,433 = 1,721. Adjusted EBITDA margin 807 / 33,239 = 2.4% (2023); 2,035 / 34,935 = 5.8% (2024). Power share of total revenue 19,767 / 38,068 = 51.9%; Gas Power share of Power 16,006 / 19,767 = 81%; Nuclear share of Power 1,018 / 19,767 = 5.2%; Grid Solutions share of Electrification 6,620 / 9,642 = 68.7%. Electrification revenue 9,642 / 5,076 - 1 = 90% (2022-2025). Wind revenue 9,110 / 11,539 - 1 = -21% (2021-2025); Wind share of revenue 9,110 / 38,068 = 23.9%. Segment EBITDA of the three segments 2,902 - 598 + 1,433 = 3,737. Q2 2026 orders / 2025 orders 24.2 / 59.3 = 41%. Electrification and other RPO at 30 June 2026 176,284 - 111,649 - 20,388 = 44,247. Power equipment RPO 39,261 / 12,461 = 3.2 times (Dec 2024 - June 2026). 2026 guidance midpoints: revenue 41.5 (Dec 2025), 44.5 (Jan 2026), 45.0 (Apr 2026), 46.0 (Jul 2026); free cash flow 4.75, 5.25, 7.0, 12.0. Market value 255.05 / 35.71 = 7.1 times the when-issued value. R&D / revenue 1,197 / 38,068 = 3.1%. Trailing revenue growth over 2024 41,367 / 34,935 - 1 = 18%. Power orders share 32.8 / 59.3 = 55%. Wind services / Power services 1,859 / 13,081 = 14%; onshore wind units / gas turbine units 59,000 / 7,000 = 8.4. Power services RPO / Power services revenue 69,841 / 13,081 = 5.3 years. Electrification H1 2026 EBITDA margin 1,200 / 6,597 = 18.2%; Power H1 2026 1,842 / 10,449 = 17.6%. Return on equity 2025 4,884 / ((11,178 + 9,546) / 2 = 10,362) = 47.1%; excluding the tax benefit (4,884 - 2,900) / 10,362 = 19.1%. Q2 2026 capex implied by operating cash flow less free cash flow 5,492 - 5,107 = 385. SG&A / revenue 5,360 / 29,654 = 18.1% (2022); 4,949 / 38,068 = 13.0% (2025). Cost of services growth 11,774 - 9,716 = 2,058; services revenue growth 17,134 - 14,981 = 2,153 (2023-2025). Electrification 2026 guide without Prolec (14.5 - 3.1) / 9.642 - 1 = 18%; (15.0 - 3.1) / 9.642 - 1 = 23%. HA installed base growth 51 / 126 = 40%. Contract liabilities / receivables at end-2025 25,774 / 9,803 = 2.6 times; receivables / revenue 9,803 / 38,068 = 26%. Backlog target progress (176.3 - 135) / (200 - 135) = 64%. Heavy-duty orders Q2 2026 / 2025 52 / 110 = 47%. Average capacity per gas turbine sold 15.3 / 81 = 0.19 GW (2025); 11.1 / 101 = 0.11 GW (2022). Equity / contract liabilities 11,957 / 39,944 = 30%. Cost of services growth 2,058 / 9,716 = 21%; services revenue growth 2,153 / 14,981 = 14% (2023-2025). Gas turbine orders / sales 29.8 / 15.3 = 1.9 (2025). Electrification share of guided 2026 revenue 14.75 / 46.0 = 32%; of 2025 revenue 9,642 / 38,068 = 25%. Electrification share of 2025 orders 19.3 / 59.3 = 33%. Aeroderivative orders 63 / 44 - 1 = 43% - segment revenue, EBITDA and growth. — 2021-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in GE Vernova's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, the Form 10 information statement, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line. The 21% tax rate used for NOPAT is the US federal statutory rate, an assumption, because the 2025 reported tax line is a benefit.
  8. ReportedThe 2026 guidance calls for a Wind EBITDA loss of about $400 million.
    GE Vernova second-quarter 2026 results release (Form 8-K exhibit) - orders, revenue, segment EBITDA, free cash flow, the gas turbine backlog and slot reservations, data-centre orders and raised 2026 guidance - raised 2026 guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026