✦ The Services Wave of the 2030sNarrow moat

GE Vernova (GEV) — the future bets

GE Vernova is selling today the turbines that will need its service engineers in the 2030s.

The turbines being ordered today are the service revenue of the next decade. GE Vernova says so directly: its December 2025 investor update pointed to "More profitable, recurring Gas Power services revenue beginning in the 2030s"1. Power equipment backlog, which on the restated basis was $12,461 million at the end of 2024, was $24,707 million a year later2 and $39,261 million by June 20263.

Power equipment remaining performance obligations ($M)12,461Dec 202424,707Dec 202539,261Jun 2026GE Vernova Form 10-Q Q2 2026, restated business-unit basis
More than tripled in eighteen months.

The mechanism is the one that built the company. Gas turbines sold in 2025 and 2026 go into service between 2027 and 2030, and their first major maintenance falls in the following decade. About 1,800 turbines are under long-term service agreements today4; the new units are the candidates for the next wave.

The HA class matters most. GE Vernova has 51 HA units in backlog and 126 installed5, and it took orders for 43 HA units in 20256. These are the largest heavy-duty turbines in its range.

The bet is long-dated, which is its weakness. The payoff arrives after the current management's plan horizon.

The gas turbine units being shipped are larger than before. Gas turbine sales were 81 units and 15.3 gigawatts in 2025 against 101 units and 11.1 gigawatts in 202278, so each turbine sold now averages more capacity. Larger machines carry larger maintenance bills over their lives.

The service agreements have long lives already. The average remaining life of GE Vernova's gas turbine long-term service agreements is about ten years9, so the contracts signed with the turbines now being ordered would run into the 2040s. That is the horizon on which this bet pays off.

Power equipment backlog is the leading indicator. It more than tripled from the end of 2024 to June 2026; if it stops growing, the services wave of the 2030s will be smaller than the one the company is promising.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Power equipment RPO $12.5bn (2024) to $39.3bn (June 2026).

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Power equipment backlog, latest quarter
$39,261M (30 June 2026), from $24,707M at end-2025

The future service base; if it stops growing, the services wave will be smaller than promised.

Source: GE Vernova Form 10-Q, Q2 2026 ↗
References
  1. ReportedGE Vernova says so directly: its December 2025 investor update pointed to "More profitable, recurring Gas Power services revenue beginning in the 2030s".
    GE Vernova 2025 Investor Update press release - multi-year outlook raised, dividend doubled, buyback authorization raised to $10 billion, backlog target of about $200 billion by 2028 and Electrification backlog doubling. — December 2025 · publ. 9 December 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedPower equipment backlog, which on the restated basis was $12,461 million at the end of 2024, was $24,707 million a year later and $39,261 million by June 2026.
    GE Vernova Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - the balance sheet, contract liabilities, borrowings, remaining performance obligations, orders and sales in units, business-unit revenue and the Prolec GE acquisition. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedPower equipment backlog, which on the restated basis was $12,461 million at the end of 2024, was $24,707 million a year later and $39,261 million by June 2026.
    GE Vernova Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - the balance sheet, contract liabilities, borrowings, remaining performance obligations, orders and sales in units, business-unit revenue and the Prolec GE acquisition. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedAbout 1,800 turbines are under long-term service agreements today; the new units are the candidates for the next wave.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, installed base, competitors and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedGE Vernova has 51 HA units in backlog and 126 installed, and it took orders for 43 HA units in 2025.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, installed base, competitors and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedGE Vernova has 51 HA units in backlog and 126 installed, and it took orders for 43 HA units in 2025.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, installed base, competitors and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedGas turbine sales were 81 units and 15.3 gigawatts in 2025 against 101 units and 11.1 gigawatts in 2022, so each turbine sold now averages more capacity.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, installed base, competitors and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedGas turbine sales were 81 units and 15.3 gigawatts in 2025 against 101 units and 11.1 gigawatts in 2022, so each turbine sold now averages more capacity.
    GE Vernova information statement (Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, 8 March 2024) - audited combined carve-out financial statements for 2021-2023, segment results, the installed base and patents, and the Alstom legacy matters. — 2021-2023 · publ. 8 March 2024 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThe average remaining life of GE Vernova's gas turbine long-term service agreements is about ten years, so the contracts signed with the turbines now being ordered would run into the 2040s.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, installed base, competitors and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026