The Fleet Behind a Quarter of the World's ElectricityWide moat

GE Vernova (GEV) — moat facet

GE Vernova's installed base generates about a quarter of the world's electricity, which makes it the first call when any of those plants needs work.

The scale of the fleet is the foundation of everything else. GE Vernova's 10-K says its installed base generates approximately 25% of the world's electricity1. Its 2024 information statement put the figure at about 30%2.

Services revenue ($M)14,175202113,835202214,981202315,983202417,1342025GE Vernova Form 10-K FY2025 and Form 10 information statement
Up 21% in four years, including the years equipment lost money.

A base that large is a distribution network in its own right. Every plant owner running a GE turbine, generator or grid product already knows the company's engineers, holds its manuals and has its parts in inventory. The company traces the lineage to Thomas Edison's first commercial power plant in the United States in 18823, and its 2024 information statement counted about 36,000 patents and patent applications in about 60 countries4.

The base is not only gas. There are about 59,000 onshore wind turbines installed, about 24,000 of them under services agreements5, 41%6, plus steam, nuclear and hydro equipment across the Power segment.

This is why services revenue rose even in the years equipment lost money: $14,175 million in 2021 and $17,134 million in 202578.

The people who service the fleet are spread as widely as the fleet. Of about 75,000 employees, about 24,000 work in Europe, 21,000 in the United States, 19,000 in Asia and 6,000 in Latin America9. A service network of that reach is part of why a plant owner in Asia or the Middle East calls the original maker first.

The share of world electricity is the number to test. The drop from about 30% to about 25% between two filings is partly a matter of measurement, but if the next 10-K cuts it again, the fleet will be retiring faster than the order boom replaces it.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Installed base put at about 25% of world electricity (FY2025 10-K), from about 30% (2024).

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Services revenue, all segments
$17,134M (2025), from $14,175M (2021)

The revenue the fleet generates; a fall would mean the base is shrinking or leaking to other servicers.

Source: GE Vernova Form 10-K, FY2025 ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
The Share of World Electricity Fell From 30% to 25%
GE Vernova's own estimate of its share of world electricity fell from about 30% to about 25% between 2024 and 2025.
References
  1. ReportedGE Vernova's 10-K says its installed base generates approximately 25% of the world's electricity.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, installed base, competitors and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIts 2024 information statement put the figure at about 30%.
    GE Vernova information statement (Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, 8 March 2024) - audited combined carve-out financial statements for 2021-2023, segment results, the installed base and patents, and the Alstom legacy matters. — 2021-2023 · publ. 8 March 2024 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe company traces the lineage to Thomas Edison's first commercial power plant in the United States in 1882, and its 2024 information statement counted about 36,000 patents and patent applications in about 60 countries.
    GE Vernova information statement (Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, 8 March 2024) - audited combined carve-out financial statements for 2021-2023, segment results, the installed base and patents, and the Alstom legacy matters. — 2021-2023 · publ. 8 March 2024 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe company traces the lineage to Thomas Edison's first commercial power plant in the United States in 1882, and its 2024 information statement counted about 36,000 patents and patent applications in about 60 countries.
    GE Vernova information statement (Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, 8 March 2024) - audited combined carve-out financial statements for 2021-2023, segment results, the installed base and patents, and the Alstom legacy matters. — 2021-2023 · publ. 8 March 2024 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThere are about 59,000 onshore wind turbines installed, about 24,000 of them under services agreements, 41%, plus steam, nuclear and hydro equipment across the Power segment.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, installed base, competitors and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  6. Moat Explorer calcThere are about 59,000 onshore wind turbines installed, about 24,000 of them under services agreements, 41%, plus steam, nuclear and hydro equipment across the Power segment.
    Moat Explorer calculation from GE Vernova's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, the Form 10 information statement, results releases and market data ($ millions unless stated). Equipment gross profit = sales of equipment less cost of equipment: 18,831 - 18,654 = 177 (2021, 0.9%); 15,819 - 16,972 = -1,153 (2022, -7.3%); 18,258 - 18,705 = -447 (2023, -2.4%); 18,952 - 17,989 = 963 (2024, 5.1%); 20,934 - 18,759 = 2,175 (2025, 10.4%). Services gross profit: 14,175 - 9,407 = 4,768 (2021, 33.6%); 13,835 - 9,224 = 4,611 (2022, 33.3%); 14,981 - 9,716 = 5,265 (2023, 35.1%); 15,983 - 10,861 = 5,122 (2024, 32.0%); 17,134 - 11,774 = 5,360 (2025, 31.3%). Services share of gross profit 5,360 / 7,535 = 71.1% (2025); 5,122 / 6,085 = 84.2% (2024); 5,265 / 4,818 = 109% (2023). Services share of revenue 17,134 / 38,068 = 45.0%. Power services share of Power revenue 13,081 / 19,767 = 66.2%. Gas Power share of revenue 16,006 / 38,068 = 42.0%. Gas turbines under long-term service agreements 1,800 / 7,000 = 26%; onshore wind turbines under service agreements 24,000 / 59,000 = 41%. RPO: services share 85,993 / 150,238 = 57.2%; services RPO growth 85,993 / 75,976 - 1 = 13.2%; equipment RPO growth 64,245 / 43,047 - 1 = 49.2%; total RPO growth 150,238 / 119,023 - 1 = 26.2%; Power share of RPO at 30 June 2026 111,649 / 176,284 = 63.3%; Power equipment RPO 24,707 / 12,461 = 1.98 times; 39,261 / 24,707 - 1 = 59%. Electrification RPO 34,667 / 8,971 = 3.9 times (2022-2025); 34,667 / 9,642 = 3.6 years of 2025 segment revenue. Services RPO beyond 15 years 100% - 91% = 9%. Gas turbine backlog plus slot reservations at 30 June 2026 53 + 63 = 116 GW; 116 / 20 GW a year = 5.8 years of output. Gas turbine orders 173 / 112 - 1 = 54% (units), 29.8 / 20.2 - 1 = 48% (GW). Operating cash flow less the increase in contract liabilities 4,987 - 8,019 = -3,032 (2025). Net cash = cash less borrowings: 8,848 - 289 = 8,559 (31 Dec 2025); 13,120 - 2,849 = 10,271 (30 June 2026). Contract liabilities / equity attributable 39,944 / 11,957 = 3.3 times; contract liabilities less cash 39,944 - 13,120 = 26,824. Geography 2025: US 17,341 / 38,068 = 45.6%; US growth 17,341 / 12,467 - 1 = 39.1% (2023-2025); US share of pre-tax income 78 / 2,828 = 2.8%. Wind segment EBITDA 2021-2025 176 - 1,710 - 1,033 - 588 - 598 = -3,753; Offshore Wind contract losses 637 + 1,005 + 379 = 2,021 (2023-2025); Offshore Wind revenue 652 / 1,377 - 1 = -52.7%; Wind orders in units 854 / 2,290 - 1 = -62.7% (2023-2025); Wind revenue 9,110 / 9,701 - 1 = -6.1%; H1 2026 Wind EBITDA margin -657 / 3,459 = -19.0%. Power share of 2025 segment EBITDA 2,902 / (2,902 - 598 + 1,433) = 77.7%. Segment revenue growth 2025: Power 19,767 / 18,127 - 1 = 9.0%; Electrification 9,642 / 7,550 - 1 = 27.7%; revenue 38,068 / 34,935 - 1 = 9.0%. Growth 2021-2025 a year: Electrification (9,642 / 5,292)^(1/4) - 1 = 16.2%; Power (19,767 / 16,729)^(1/4) - 1 = 4.3%; Electrification 2023-2025 9,642 / 6,378 - 1 = 51.2%. Grid Solutions 6,620 / 3,226 - 1 = 105% (2021-2025); Nuclear Power 1,018 / 699 - 1 = 45.6% (2022-2025); Steam Power 1,937 / 3,270 - 1 = -40.8% (2021-2025). Electrification segment assets 21,000 / 9,017 = 2.3 times. Return on invested capital: invested capital = total assets less current liabilities less cash: 63,016 - 40,972 - 8,848 = 13,196 (2025); 51,485 - 31,685 - 8,205 = 11,595 (2024); average 12,395.5. NOPAT at an assumed 21% tax rate on operating income 1,388 x 0.79 = 1,096.5, ROIC 1,096.5 / 12,395.5 = 8.8% (2025); 2024 on year-end capital 471 x 0.79 / 11,595 = 3.2%. Adjusted basis: (adjusted EBITDA 3,196 - depreciation and amortization 847) x 0.79 = 1,855.7, / 12,395.5 = 15.0%. Capex / revenue 1,277 / 38,068 = 3.4%; capex growth 1,277 / 744 - 1 = 72% (2023-2025). 2025 capital returns 275 + 3,316 = 3,591. Average 2025 buyback price 3,316 / 8.2M shares = about $404. Shares outstanding 266,333,581 / 275,880,314 - 1 = -3.5% (Dec 2024 - June 2026). Dividends 2025 4 x $0.25 = $1.00. Valuation: P/E = market value / net income: 90.60 / 1.552 = 58.4 (2024); 177.33 / 4.884 = 36.3 (2025); trailing 255.05 / 9.529 = 26.8; 2025 excluding the $2.9bn tax benefit 4,884 - 2,900 = 1,984, 177.33 / 1.984 = 89. P/S 90.60 / 34.935 = 2.59; 177.33 / 38.068 = 4.66; 255.05 / 41.367 = 6.17. Trailing revenue 38,068 + 20,442 - 17,143 = 41,367; trailing net income 4,884 + 5,413 - 768 = 9,529; trailing net income less the Prolec gain 9,529 - 3,992 = 5,537. Forward EPS 957.63 / 45.68 = 20.96. Analyst target 1,237.34 / 957.63 - 1 = 29%. Price 957.63 / 1,195.94 - 1 = -20% from the 52-week high. 2026 guidance: revenue midpoint (45.5 + 46.5) / 2 = 46.0bn; adjusted EBITDA at 12%-14% of 46.0bn = 5.5-6.4bn; free cash flow midpoint 12.0bn; H1 revenue 20,442 / 46,000 = 44%; H1 free cash flow 9,897 / 12,000 = 82%. Wind 2026 EBITDA loss about 400 against 2025 598. Services RPO / 2025 services revenue 85,993 / 17,134 = 5.0 times; services RPO beyond five years 100% - 52% = 48%. Electrification orders / revenue 19.3 / 9.642 = 2.0 times; Electrification services / revenue 2,263 / 9,642 = 23.5%; Electrification 2026 EBITDA at 18% of 14.5bn = 2.61bn. Prolec gain / trailing net income 3,992 / 9,529 = 42%. 2025 tax benefit / net income 2,900 / 4,884 = 59%. Gas turbine market share 64.5 - 18.5 = 46.0 for the other four of the top five. Share price 957.63 / 327.79 = 2.9 times. Cumulative segment EBITDA 2021-2025: Power 1,407 + 1,655 + 1,722 + 2,268 + 2,902 = 9,954; Electrification -461 - 164 + 234 + 679 + 1,433 = 1,721. Adjusted EBITDA margin 807 / 33,239 = 2.4% (2023); 2,035 / 34,935 = 5.8% (2024). Power share of total revenue 19,767 / 38,068 = 51.9%; Gas Power share of Power 16,006 / 19,767 = 81%; Nuclear share of Power 1,018 / 19,767 = 5.2%; Grid Solutions share of Electrification 6,620 / 9,642 = 68.7%. Electrification revenue 9,642 / 5,076 - 1 = 90% (2022-2025). Wind revenue 9,110 / 11,539 - 1 = -21% (2021-2025); Wind share of revenue 9,110 / 38,068 = 23.9%. Segment EBITDA of the three segments 2,902 - 598 + 1,433 = 3,737. Q2 2026 orders / 2025 orders 24.2 / 59.3 = 41%. Electrification and other RPO at 30 June 2026 176,284 - 111,649 - 20,388 = 44,247. Power equipment RPO 39,261 / 12,461 = 3.2 times (Dec 2024 - June 2026). 2026 guidance midpoints: revenue 41.5 (Dec 2025), 44.5 (Jan 2026), 45.0 (Apr 2026), 46.0 (Jul 2026); free cash flow 4.75, 5.25, 7.0, 12.0. Market value 255.05 / 35.71 = 7.1 times the when-issued value. R&D / revenue 1,197 / 38,068 = 3.1%. Trailing revenue growth over 2024 41,367 / 34,935 - 1 = 18%. Power orders share 32.8 / 59.3 = 55%. Wind services / Power services 1,859 / 13,081 = 14%; onshore wind units / gas turbine units 59,000 / 7,000 = 8.4. Power services RPO / Power services revenue 69,841 / 13,081 = 5.3 years. Electrification H1 2026 EBITDA margin 1,200 / 6,597 = 18.2%; Power H1 2026 1,842 / 10,449 = 17.6%. Return on equity 2025 4,884 / ((11,178 + 9,546) / 2 = 10,362) = 47.1%; excluding the tax benefit (4,884 - 2,900) / 10,362 = 19.1%. Q2 2026 capex implied by operating cash flow less free cash flow 5,492 - 5,107 = 385. SG&A / revenue 5,360 / 29,654 = 18.1% (2022); 4,949 / 38,068 = 13.0% (2025). Cost of services growth 11,774 - 9,716 = 2,058; services revenue growth 17,134 - 14,981 = 2,153 (2023-2025). Electrification 2026 guide without Prolec (14.5 - 3.1) / 9.642 - 1 = 18%; (15.0 - 3.1) / 9.642 - 1 = 23%. HA installed base growth 51 / 126 = 40%. Contract liabilities / receivables at end-2025 25,774 / 9,803 = 2.6 times; receivables / revenue 9,803 / 38,068 = 26%. Backlog target progress (176.3 - 135) / (200 - 135) = 64%. Heavy-duty orders Q2 2026 / 2025 52 / 110 = 47%. Average capacity per gas turbine sold 15.3 / 81 = 0.19 GW (2025); 11.1 / 101 = 0.11 GW (2022). Equity / contract liabilities 11,957 / 39,944 = 30%. Cost of services growth 2,058 / 9,716 = 21%; services revenue growth 2,153 / 14,981 = 14% (2023-2025). Gas turbine orders / sales 29.8 / 15.3 = 1.9 (2025). Electrification share of guided 2026 revenue 14.75 / 46.0 = 32%; of 2025 revenue 9,642 / 38,068 = 25%. Electrification share of 2025 orders 19.3 / 59.3 = 33%. Aeroderivative orders 63 / 44 - 1 = 43% - segment revenue, EBITDA and growth. — 2021-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in GE Vernova's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, the Form 10 information statement, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line. The 21% tax rate used for NOPAT is the US federal statutory rate, an assumption, because the 2025 reported tax line is a benefit.
  7. ReportedThis is why services revenue rose even in the years equipment lost money: $14,175 million in 2021 and $17,134 million in 2025.
    GE Vernova information statement (Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, 8 March 2024) - audited combined carve-out financial statements for 2021-2023, segment results, the installed base and patents, and the Alstom legacy matters. — 2021-2023 · publ. 8 March 2024 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThis is why services revenue rose even in the years equipment lost money: $14,175 million in 2021 and $17,134 million in 2025.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements: income, balance sheet, cash flow, taxes and capital returns. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedOf about 75,000 employees, about 24,000 work in Europe, 21,000 in the United States, 19,000 in Asia and 6,000 in Latin America.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, installed base, competitors and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026