Vestas and the Wind Makers: The Contest GE Vernova Is LeavingThin moat

GE Vernova (GEV) — moat facet

GE Vernova is losing the wind market to five named rivals and has chosen to shrink rather than fight on price.

In wind, GE Vernova is not competing to win. Its 10-K names Vestas, Siemens-Gamesa, Nordex, Envision and Goldwind as key Wind competitors1, and against them the company has been shrinking on purpose. Wind orders fell from 2,290 turbines in 2023 to 1,212 in 2024 and 854 in 20252, a drop of 62.7%3.

Wind turbine orders (units)2,29020231,21220248542025GE Vernova Form 10-K FY2025
Orders down almost two thirds in two years.

The retreat follows the losses. The Wind segment's EBITDA was minus $598 million in 20254, and the company cut its 2028 Wind margin outlook to 6% from 10%5. Offshore Wind revenue halved in 2025, to $652 million from $1,377 million6.

Part of the fall is American policy. The 10-K records "a decrease in orders at Onshore Wind as U.S. customers dealt with policy uncertainty"7, and in the second quarter of 2026 Wind orders were 147 turbines against 381 a year earlier8. The United States was about 60% of Onshore equipment backlog9.

What remains is a narrower business: onshore turbines of a few standard models, which the company calls workhorse products and which make up about 75% of Wind equipment backlog10, and the service base of 24,000 turbines11.

Turbines sold tell the same story as orders. GE Vernova sold 2,225 wind turbines in 2023, 1,778 in 2024 and 1,518 in 202512, down from 3,590 in 202113. Each year it adds fewer machines to its fleet than the year before.

Offshore is where the retreat is sharpest. Offshore Wind revenue peaked at $1,455 million in 2023 and was $652 million in 202514, and turbine installation at its two large projects, Dogger Bank A in the United Kingdom and Vineyard Wind in the United States, was completed in the first quarter of 202615. The line is shrinking as those projects finish.

Wind orders will show whether the retreat has a floor. A second half of 2026 below the first would say GE Vernova is being pushed out of the market, not choosing to step back.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

Wind orders 2,290 (2023) to 854 turbines (2025); 147 in Q2 2026.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Wind turbine orders, latest quarter
147 turbines, 0.6 GW (Q2 2026), against 381, 1.6 GW a year earlier

Whether the retreat from wind has a floor; a further fall would mean rivals are pushing GE Vernova out.

Source: GE Vernova Form 10-Q, Q2 2026 ↗
References
  1. ReportedIts 10-K names Vestas, Siemens-Gamesa, Nordex, Envision and Goldwind as key Wind competitors, and against them the company has been shrinking on purpose.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, installed base, competitors and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedWind orders fell from 2,290 turbines in 2023 to 1,212 in 2024 and 854 in 2025, a drop of 62.7%.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, installed base, competitors and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcWind orders fell from 2,290 turbines in 2023 to 1,212 in 2024 and 854 in 2025, a drop of 62.7%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from GE Vernova's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, the Form 10 information statement, results releases and market data ($ millions unless stated). Equipment gross profit = sales of equipment less cost of equipment: 18,831 - 18,654 = 177 (2021, 0.9%); 15,819 - 16,972 = -1,153 (2022, -7.3%); 18,258 - 18,705 = -447 (2023, -2.4%); 18,952 - 17,989 = 963 (2024, 5.1%); 20,934 - 18,759 = 2,175 (2025, 10.4%). Services gross profit: 14,175 - 9,407 = 4,768 (2021, 33.6%); 13,835 - 9,224 = 4,611 (2022, 33.3%); 14,981 - 9,716 = 5,265 (2023, 35.1%); 15,983 - 10,861 = 5,122 (2024, 32.0%); 17,134 - 11,774 = 5,360 (2025, 31.3%). Services share of gross profit 5,360 / 7,535 = 71.1% (2025); 5,122 / 6,085 = 84.2% (2024); 5,265 / 4,818 = 109% (2023). Services share of revenue 17,134 / 38,068 = 45.0%. Power services share of Power revenue 13,081 / 19,767 = 66.2%. Gas Power share of revenue 16,006 / 38,068 = 42.0%. Gas turbines under long-term service agreements 1,800 / 7,000 = 26%; onshore wind turbines under service agreements 24,000 / 59,000 = 41%. RPO: services share 85,993 / 150,238 = 57.2%; services RPO growth 85,993 / 75,976 - 1 = 13.2%; equipment RPO growth 64,245 / 43,047 - 1 = 49.2%; total RPO growth 150,238 / 119,023 - 1 = 26.2%; Power share of RPO at 30 June 2026 111,649 / 176,284 = 63.3%; Power equipment RPO 24,707 / 12,461 = 1.98 times; 39,261 / 24,707 - 1 = 59%. Electrification RPO 34,667 / 8,971 = 3.9 times (2022-2025); 34,667 / 9,642 = 3.6 years of 2025 segment revenue. Services RPO beyond 15 years 100% - 91% = 9%. Gas turbine backlog plus slot reservations at 30 June 2026 53 + 63 = 116 GW; 116 / 20 GW a year = 5.8 years of output. Gas turbine orders 173 / 112 - 1 = 54% (units), 29.8 / 20.2 - 1 = 48% (GW). Operating cash flow less the increase in contract liabilities 4,987 - 8,019 = -3,032 (2025). Net cash = cash less borrowings: 8,848 - 289 = 8,559 (31 Dec 2025); 13,120 - 2,849 = 10,271 (30 June 2026). Contract liabilities / equity attributable 39,944 / 11,957 = 3.3 times; contract liabilities less cash 39,944 - 13,120 = 26,824. Geography 2025: US 17,341 / 38,068 = 45.6%; US growth 17,341 / 12,467 - 1 = 39.1% (2023-2025); US share of pre-tax income 78 / 2,828 = 2.8%. Wind segment EBITDA 2021-2025 176 - 1,710 - 1,033 - 588 - 598 = -3,753; Offshore Wind contract losses 637 + 1,005 + 379 = 2,021 (2023-2025); Offshore Wind revenue 652 / 1,377 - 1 = -52.7%; Wind orders in units 854 / 2,290 - 1 = -62.7% (2023-2025); Wind revenue 9,110 / 9,701 - 1 = -6.1%; H1 2026 Wind EBITDA margin -657 / 3,459 = -19.0%. Power share of 2025 segment EBITDA 2,902 / (2,902 - 598 + 1,433) = 77.7%. Segment revenue growth 2025: Power 19,767 / 18,127 - 1 = 9.0%; Electrification 9,642 / 7,550 - 1 = 27.7%; revenue 38,068 / 34,935 - 1 = 9.0%. Growth 2021-2025 a year: Electrification (9,642 / 5,292)^(1/4) - 1 = 16.2%; Power (19,767 / 16,729)^(1/4) - 1 = 4.3%; Electrification 2023-2025 9,642 / 6,378 - 1 = 51.2%. Grid Solutions 6,620 / 3,226 - 1 = 105% (2021-2025); Nuclear Power 1,018 / 699 - 1 = 45.6% (2022-2025); Steam Power 1,937 / 3,270 - 1 = -40.8% (2021-2025). Electrification segment assets 21,000 / 9,017 = 2.3 times. Return on invested capital: invested capital = total assets less current liabilities less cash: 63,016 - 40,972 - 8,848 = 13,196 (2025); 51,485 - 31,685 - 8,205 = 11,595 (2024); average 12,395.5. NOPAT at an assumed 21% tax rate on operating income 1,388 x 0.79 = 1,096.5, ROIC 1,096.5 / 12,395.5 = 8.8% (2025); 2024 on year-end capital 471 x 0.79 / 11,595 = 3.2%. Adjusted basis: (adjusted EBITDA 3,196 - depreciation and amortization 847) x 0.79 = 1,855.7, / 12,395.5 = 15.0%. Capex / revenue 1,277 / 38,068 = 3.4%; capex growth 1,277 / 744 - 1 = 72% (2023-2025). 2025 capital returns 275 + 3,316 = 3,591. Average 2025 buyback price 3,316 / 8.2M shares = about $404. Shares outstanding 266,333,581 / 275,880,314 - 1 = -3.5% (Dec 2024 - June 2026). Dividends 2025 4 x $0.25 = $1.00. Valuation: P/E = market value / net income: 90.60 / 1.552 = 58.4 (2024); 177.33 / 4.884 = 36.3 (2025); trailing 255.05 / 9.529 = 26.8; 2025 excluding the $2.9bn tax benefit 4,884 - 2,900 = 1,984, 177.33 / 1.984 = 89. P/S 90.60 / 34.935 = 2.59; 177.33 / 38.068 = 4.66; 255.05 / 41.367 = 6.17. Trailing revenue 38,068 + 20,442 - 17,143 = 41,367; trailing net income 4,884 + 5,413 - 768 = 9,529; trailing net income less the Prolec gain 9,529 - 3,992 = 5,537. Forward EPS 957.63 / 45.68 = 20.96. Analyst target 1,237.34 / 957.63 - 1 = 29%. Price 957.63 / 1,195.94 - 1 = -20% from the 52-week high. 2026 guidance: revenue midpoint (45.5 + 46.5) / 2 = 46.0bn; adjusted EBITDA at 12%-14% of 46.0bn = 5.5-6.4bn; free cash flow midpoint 12.0bn; H1 revenue 20,442 / 46,000 = 44%; H1 free cash flow 9,897 / 12,000 = 82%. Wind 2026 EBITDA loss about 400 against 2025 598. Services RPO / 2025 services revenue 85,993 / 17,134 = 5.0 times; services RPO beyond five years 100% - 52% = 48%. Electrification orders / revenue 19.3 / 9.642 = 2.0 times; Electrification services / revenue 2,263 / 9,642 = 23.5%; Electrification 2026 EBITDA at 18% of 14.5bn = 2.61bn. Prolec gain / trailing net income 3,992 / 9,529 = 42%. 2025 tax benefit / net income 2,900 / 4,884 = 59%. Gas turbine market share 64.5 - 18.5 = 46.0 for the other four of the top five. Share price 957.63 / 327.79 = 2.9 times. Cumulative segment EBITDA 2021-2025: Power 1,407 + 1,655 + 1,722 + 2,268 + 2,902 = 9,954; Electrification -461 - 164 + 234 + 679 + 1,433 = 1,721. Adjusted EBITDA margin 807 / 33,239 = 2.4% (2023); 2,035 / 34,935 = 5.8% (2024). Power share of total revenue 19,767 / 38,068 = 51.9%; Gas Power share of Power 16,006 / 19,767 = 81%; Nuclear share of Power 1,018 / 19,767 = 5.2%; Grid Solutions share of Electrification 6,620 / 9,642 = 68.7%. Electrification revenue 9,642 / 5,076 - 1 = 90% (2022-2025). Wind revenue 9,110 / 11,539 - 1 = -21% (2021-2025); Wind share of revenue 9,110 / 38,068 = 23.9%. Segment EBITDA of the three segments 2,902 - 598 + 1,433 = 3,737. Q2 2026 orders / 2025 orders 24.2 / 59.3 = 41%. Electrification and other RPO at 30 June 2026 176,284 - 111,649 - 20,388 = 44,247. Power equipment RPO 39,261 / 12,461 = 3.2 times (Dec 2024 - June 2026). 2026 guidance midpoints: revenue 41.5 (Dec 2025), 44.5 (Jan 2026), 45.0 (Apr 2026), 46.0 (Jul 2026); free cash flow 4.75, 5.25, 7.0, 12.0. Market value 255.05 / 35.71 = 7.1 times the when-issued value. R&D / revenue 1,197 / 38,068 = 3.1%. Trailing revenue growth over 2024 41,367 / 34,935 - 1 = 18%. Power orders share 32.8 / 59.3 = 55%. Wind services / Power services 1,859 / 13,081 = 14%; onshore wind units / gas turbine units 59,000 / 7,000 = 8.4. Power services RPO / Power services revenue 69,841 / 13,081 = 5.3 years. Electrification H1 2026 EBITDA margin 1,200 / 6,597 = 18.2%; Power H1 2026 1,842 / 10,449 = 17.6%. Return on equity 2025 4,884 / ((11,178 + 9,546) / 2 = 10,362) = 47.1%; excluding the tax benefit (4,884 - 2,900) / 10,362 = 19.1%. Q2 2026 capex implied by operating cash flow less free cash flow 5,492 - 5,107 = 385. SG&A / revenue 5,360 / 29,654 = 18.1% (2022); 4,949 / 38,068 = 13.0% (2025). Cost of services growth 11,774 - 9,716 = 2,058; services revenue growth 17,134 - 14,981 = 2,153 (2023-2025). Electrification 2026 guide without Prolec (14.5 - 3.1) / 9.642 - 1 = 18%; (15.0 - 3.1) / 9.642 - 1 = 23%. HA installed base growth 51 / 126 = 40%. Contract liabilities / receivables at end-2025 25,774 / 9,803 = 2.6 times; receivables / revenue 9,803 / 38,068 = 26%. Backlog target progress (176.3 - 135) / (200 - 135) = 64%. Heavy-duty orders Q2 2026 / 2025 52 / 110 = 47%. Average capacity per gas turbine sold 15.3 / 81 = 0.19 GW (2025); 11.1 / 101 = 0.11 GW (2022). Equity / contract liabilities 11,957 / 39,944 = 30%. Cost of services growth 2,058 / 9,716 = 21%; services revenue growth 2,153 / 14,981 = 14% (2023-2025). Gas turbine orders / sales 29.8 / 15.3 = 1.9 (2025). Electrification share of guided 2026 revenue 14.75 / 46.0 = 32%; of 2025 revenue 9,642 / 38,068 = 25%. Electrification share of 2025 orders 19.3 / 59.3 = 33%. Aeroderivative orders 63 / 44 - 1 = 43% - backlog, gas turbine slots, orders and customer deposits. — 2021-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in GE Vernova's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, the Form 10 information statement, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line. The 21% tax rate used for NOPAT is the US federal statutory rate, an assumption, because the 2025 reported tax line is a benefit.
  4. ReportedThe Wind segment's EBITDA was minus $598 million in 2025, and the company cut its 2028 Wind margin outlook to 6% from 10%.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - segment revenue, segment EBITDA and the reconciliation to adjusted EBITDA. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe Wind segment's EBITDA was minus $598 million in 2025, and the company cut its 2028 Wind margin outlook to 6% from 10%.
    GE Vernova 2025 Investor Update press release - multi-year outlook raised, dividend doubled, buyback authorization raised to $10 billion, backlog target of about $200 billion by 2028 and Electrification backlog doubling. — December 2025 · publ. 9 December 2025 · source ↗
  6. ReportedOffshore Wind revenue halved in 2025, to $652 million from $1,377 million.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - segment revenue by business unit and by equipment and services, and Offshore Wind contract losses. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe 10-K records "a decrease in orders at Onshore Wind as U.S. customers dealt with policy uncertainty", and in the second quarter of 2026 Wind orders were 147 turbines against 381 a year earlier.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - segment revenue by business unit and by equipment and services, and Offshore Wind contract losses. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe 10-K records "a decrease in orders at Onshore Wind as U.S. customers dealt with policy uncertainty", and in the second quarter of 2026 Wind orders were 147 turbines against 381 a year earlier.
    GE Vernova Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - the balance sheet, contract liabilities, borrowings, remaining performance obligations, orders and sales in units, business-unit revenue and the Prolec GE acquisition. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThe United States was about 60% of Onshore equipment backlog.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, installed base, competitors and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedWhat remains is a narrower business: onshore turbines of a few standard models, which the company calls workhorse products and which make up about 75% of Wind equipment backlog, and the service base of 24,000 turbines.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, installed base, competitors and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedWhat remains is a narrower business: onshore turbines of a few standard models, which the company calls workhorse products and which make up about 75% of Wind equipment backlog, and the service base of 24,000 turbines.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, installed base, competitors and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedGE Vernova sold 2,225 wind turbines in 2023, 1,778 in 2024 and 1,518 in 2025, down from 3,590 in 2021.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, installed base, competitors and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedGE Vernova sold 2,225 wind turbines in 2023, 1,778 in 2024 and 1,518 in 2025, down from 3,590 in 2021.
    GE Vernova information statement (Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, 8 March 2024) - audited combined carve-out financial statements for 2021-2023, segment results, the installed base and patents, and the Alstom legacy matters. — 2021-2023 · publ. 8 March 2024 · source ↗
  14. ReportedOffshore Wind revenue peaked at $1,455 million in 2023 and was $652 million in 2025, and turbine installation at its two large projects, Dogger Bank A in the United Kingdom and Vineyard Wind in the United States, was completed in the first quarter of 2026.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - segment revenue by business unit and by equipment and services, and Offshore Wind contract losses. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  15. ReportedOffshore Wind revenue peaked at $1,455 million in 2023 and was $652 million in 2025, and turbine installation at its two large projects, Dogger Bank A in the United Kingdom and Vineyard Wind in the United States, was completed in the first quarter of 2026.
    GE Vernova first-quarter 2026 results release (Form 8-K exhibit) - gas turbine backlog and slot reservations, M&A gains, data-centre orders and the first 2026 guidance raise. — Q1 2026 · publ. 22 April 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026