◆ What the Market Isn't Pricing In

CrowdStrike (CRWD) — the variant view

Almost all of CrowdStrike's ARR growth in the past year sits in Falcon Flex accounts, and ARR outside them barely moved.

📈 CRWD valuation, revenue & earnings — P/E, P/S, revenue, EPS →

The market reads Falcon Flex as new demand. The arithmetic suggests much of it is existing demand moving into a new contract. Accounts that adopted Flex carried more than $2.29 billion of ARR at 31 July 2026, up 101%1, which implies about $1.14 billion a year earlier2. Total ARR rose from $4.66 billion3 to $5.84 billion4, an increase of about $1.18 billion5.

ARR by account type ($bn)~1.14Flex accounts, Jul 20252.29+Flex accounts, Jul 2026~3.52Other accounts, Jul 2025~3.55Other accounts, Jul 2026Calculated from CrowdStrike Q2 FY2026 and Q2 FY2027 releases; Flex ARR is a floor
Flex doubled; the rest stood still.

Put the two together and ARR in accounts outside Flex was about $3.52 billion in July 2025 and about $3.55 billion in July 20266, growth of under 1%. Almost all of the year's ARR growth, about $1.15 billion of $1.18 billion7, sits in Flex accounts.

That does not mean the growth is fake. The Flex figure counts all the ARR in an account once it adopts Flex, so a customer that moves to Flex carries its old spending with it. Some of the $1.15 billion is conversion, some is the expansion Flex was designed to unlock, and CrowdStrike does not say how much is which. It does say Flex accounts added over $1 billion of in-quarter deal value in the fourth quarter of fiscal 20258.

What it means is that Flex is now the growth engine, and the rest of the base is roughly flat. That puts a great deal of weight on one contract design, launched recently, whose commitments are drawn down over time. It is also why the contract book lengthens: less of the $10.7 billion of RPO is due within a year9, and the unbilled backlog has more than doubled.

The Flex growth rate is also slowing as the base converts. Flex-account ARR grew more than 200% at October 202510, over 120% at January 202611 and 101% at July 202612; a slowing rate is what the conversion reading would predict as fewer large accounts remain to move.

Nobody would price a stock at nearly 48 times sales13 on a flat base. The number that decides which reading is right is the growth rate of ARR outside Flex accounts, about 1% by this calculation; if the next two quarters show it still flat while Flex conversions slow, CrowdStrike's growth will depend on the conversions it has not yet made.

References
  1. ReportedAccounts that adopted Flex carried more than $2.29 billion of ARR at 31 July 2026, up 101%, which implies about $1.14 billion a year earlier.
    CrowdStrike second-quarter fiscal 2027 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - ARR, net new ARR, Falcon Flex, module adoption and retention. — Q2 FY2027 · publ. 26 August 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcAccounts that adopted Flex carried more than $2.29 billion of ARR at 31 July 2026, up 101%, which implies about $1.14 billion a year earlier.
    Moat Explorer calculation from CrowdStrike's reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end 31 January). Revenue growth: FY2019 249.8 / 118.8 - 1 = 110.4%; FY2020 481.4 / 249.8 - 1 = 92.7%; FY2021 874.4 / 481.4 - 1 = 81.6%, about 82%; FY2022 1,451.6 / 874.4 - 1 = 66.0%; FY2023 2,241.2 / 1,451.6 - 1 = 54.4%; FY2024 3,055.6 / 2,241.2 - 1 = 36.3%; FY2025 3,953.6 / 3,055.6 - 1 = 29.4%, about 29%; FY2026 4,812.0 / 3,953.6 - 1 = 21.7%, about 22%; FY2024 to FY2026 4,812.0 / 3,055.6 - 1 = 57.5%, about 57%; compound FY2018-FY2026 (4,812.0 / 118.8)^(1/8) - 1 = 58.8%, about 59%; revenue grew about 40 times in eight years (4,812.0 / 118.8 = 40.5); FY2027 guidance midpoint (5,991.1 + 6,011.1) / 2 = 6,001.1, 6,001.1 / 4,812.0 - 1 = 24.7%, about 25%; H1 FY2027 revenue 2,856.5 / 6,001.1 = 47.6%; trailing revenue to 31 July 2026 4,812.0 - 2,272.4 + 2,856.5 = 5,396.1, about $5.40 billion. Subscription growth: FY2019 219.4 / 92.6 - 1 = 137.0%; FY2020 98.9%; FY2021 804.7 / 436.3 - 1 = 84.4%; FY2022 69.0%; FY2023 2,111.7 / 1,359.5 - 1 = 55.3%; FY2024 35.9%; FY2025 3,761.5 / 2,870.6 - 1 = 31.0%; FY2026 4,564.7 / 3,761.5 - 1 = 21.4%; H1 FY2027 2,721.1 / 2,153.7 - 1 = 26.3%, about 26%; compound FY2018-FY2026 (4,564.7 / 92.6)^(1/8) - 1 = 62.8%. Subscription added: FY2022 1,359.5 - 804.7 = 554.9; FY2023 2,111.7 - 1,359.5 = 752.1; FY2024 2,870.6 - 2,111.7 = 758.9; FY2025 890.9; FY2026 803.2. Subscription share of revenue FY2018 92.6 / 118.8 = 78%. Subscription gross profit FY2026 4,564.7 - 1,015.9 = 3,548.8. Professional services: revenue FY2018 118.8 - 92.6 = 26.2; FY2024 185.0 / 129.6 - 1 = 42.8%; FY2025 192.1 / 185.0 - 1 = 3.9%, about 4%; FY2026 247.3 / 192.1 - 1 = 28.7%, about 29%; compound FY2018-FY2026 (247.3 / 26.2)^(1/8) - 1 = 32.4%; gross profit FY2026 247.3 - 203.0 = 44.3; GAAP gross margin 44.3 / 247.3 = 17.9%, about 18%; share of gross profit 44.3 / 3,593.1 = 1.2%. Region: FY2026 growth United States 3,216.7 / 2,682.9 - 1 = 19.9%; EMEA 782.7 / 619.5 - 1 = 26.3%; Asia Pacific 495.7 / 402.5 - 1 = 23.2%; Other 317.0 / 248.7 - 1 = 27.4%. United States share FY2018 99.2 / 118.8 = 84%. ARR and net new ARR: ARR compound FY2018-FY2026 (5,252.8 / 141.3)^(1/8) - 1 = 57.1%, about 57%; net new ARR FY2026 5,252.8 - 4,241.8 = 1,010.9; FY2026 growth 1,010.9 / 806.7 - 1 = 25.3%, about 25%; FY2025 change 806.7 / 875.5 - 1 = -7.9%; FY2024 875.5 / 828.4 - 1 = 5.7%; FY2023 828.4 / 681.3 - 1 = 21.6%; H1 FY2027 net new ARR 255.8 + 332.8 = 588.6; FY2027 guided net new ARR 6,607.5 - 5,252.8 = 1,354.7; FY2027 ARR guidance midpoints: March (6,465.8 + 6,516.4) / 2 = 6,491.1, June (6,531.7 + 6,555.5) / 2 = 6,543.6, August (6,603.0 + 6,611.9) / 2 = 6,607.5; 6,607.5 / 5,252.8 - 1 = 25.8%, about 26%; FY2036 goal (20,000 / 5,252.8)^(1/10) - 1 = 14.3% a year; average net new ARR (20,000 - 5,252.8) / 10 = 1,474.7, about 1.47 billion. Falcon Flex: share of ARR 2.29 / 5.84 = 39%; Flex-account ARR a year earlier 2.29 / 2.01 = 1.14 billion; ARR outside Flex accounts 4.66 - 1.14 = 3.52 billion (July 2025) and 5.84 - 2.29 = 3.55 billion (July 2026), growth 3.55 / 3.52 - 1 = 0.8%, under 1%; ARR added 5.84 - 4.66 = 1.18 billion, of which Flex accounts 2.29 - 1.14 = 1.15 billion. Contracts: RPO within twelve months 0.46 x 10.7 = 4.9 billion (July 2026) and 0.51 x 9.0 = 4.6 billion (January 2026); RPO after twelve months 0.54 x 10.7 = 5.8 billion, 54% of RPO (July 2026), 0.49 x 9.0 = 4.4 billion (January 2026), 0.47 x 6.5 = 3.1 billion (January 2025), 0.37 x 3.4 = 1.3 billion (January 2023); RPO growth six months to July 2026 10.7 / 9.0 - 1 = 18.9%; FY2026 9.0 / 6.5 - 1 = 38.5%; RPO / trailing revenue 10.7 / 5.40 = about two years; unbilled backlog 5.9 / 2.8 - 1 = 111% in eighteen months. Deferred revenue 31 July 2026 3,497.1 + 1,345.1 = 4,842.2, about $4.84 billion; noncurrent share 1,345.1 / 4,842.2 = 27.8%, just over a quarter; deferred revenue 31 January 2025 2,733.0 + 995.7 = 3,728.7, 31 January 2026 3,421.1 + 1,332.4 = 4,753.4, growth 27.5%. Accounts receivable 1,038.6 / 1,470.9 = 71% of quarterly revenue. Subscription customers 29,000 / 23,019 - 1 = 26.0%, about 26%. H1 FY2027 revenue growth 2,856.5 / 2,272.4 - 1 = 25.7%, about 26%; H1 capital expenditure 222.0 / 116.2 = 1.9 times. Revenue per subscription customer FY2024 3,055.6 / 29,000 = about $105,000. Cash, costs and stock pay: GAAP operating margin FY2026 -293.3 / 4,812.0 = -6.1%; free cash flow margin FY2026 1,235.3 / 4,812.0 = 25.7%; FY2025 1,065.1 / 3,953.6 = 26.9%; FY2024 938.2 / 3,055.6 = 30.7%; free cash flow after stock pay 1,235.3 - 1,096.7 = 138.6, 138.6 / 4,812.0 = 2.9%; stock pay (cash flow) 1,096.7 / 4,812.0 = 22.8% (FY2026), 861.4 / 3,953.6 = 21.8% (FY2025), 648.7 / 3,055.6 = 21.2% (FY2024); stock pay and payroll tax 1,130.6 / 4,812.0 = 23.5% (FY2026), 903.6 / 3,953.6 = 22.9% (FY2025), 399.0 / 1,470.9 = 27.1% (Q2 FY2027), 276.7 / 1,169.0 = 23.7% (Q2 FY2026). Capital expenditure growth FY2024-FY2026 302.1 / 176.5 - 1 = 71.2%, about 71%; capex share of revenue FY2024 176.5 / 3,055.6 = 5.8%, FY2026 302.1 / 4,812.0 = 6.3%. Net cash 5,230.1 - 745.5 = 4,484.6, about $4.5 billion. Non-GAAP operating income guidance midpoint (1,497.2 + 1,508.4) / 2 = 1,502.8, 1,502.8 / 1,050 - 1 = 43%. July 19 incident net costs 60.1 + 117.7 = 177.8 (FY2025-FY2026) and 177.8 + 3.6 = 181.4, about $181 million through July 2026; update live 04:09 to 05:27 UTC = 78 minutes; cash against Delta claim 5,010 / 500 = about 10 times; a $250 million charge against free cash flow 250 / 1,235.3 = 20%, about a fifth. Acquisitions: cash consideration 96.4 + 213.7 + 252.7 + 212.1 + 327.5 + 627.9 = 1,730.3, about $1.7 billion; CyberArk against SGNL 21,061 / 627.9 = 33.5 times. Valuation: market value against Palo Alto Networks 258.72 / 306.54 = 0.84; Palo Alto price to sales 306.54 / 11.48 = 26.7; market value 25 September 2026 against 31 January 2026 258.718 / 111.278 = 2.3 times; price to trailing sales 258.718 / 5.396 = 47.9; analyst target 235.67 / 252.13 - 1 = -6.5%; market value over fiscal revenue 10.25 / 0.4814 = 21.3 (FY2020, December 2019 value), 46.86 / 0.8744 = 53.6 (FY2021, December 2020 value) - growth rates, margins and guidance. — FY2018-FY2027 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in CrowdStrike's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, its results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  3. ReportedTotal ARR rose from $4.66 billion to $5.84 billion, an increase of about $1.18 billion.
    CrowdStrike second-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - ARR of $4.66 billion, net new ARR of $221.1 million, over 1,000 Falcon Flex customers and the module-adoption definition excluding Falcon Go customers. — Q2 FY2026 · publ. 27 August 2025 · source ↗
  4. ReportedTotal ARR rose from $4.66 billion to $5.84 billion, an increase of about $1.18 billion.
    CrowdStrike second-quarter fiscal 2027 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - ARR, net new ARR, Falcon Flex, module adoption and retention. — Q2 FY2027 · publ. 26 August 2026 · source ↗
  5. Moat Explorer calcTotal ARR rose from $4.66 billion to $5.84 billion, an increase of about $1.18 billion.
    Moat Explorer calculation from CrowdStrike's reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end 31 January). Revenue growth: FY2019 249.8 / 118.8 - 1 = 110.4%; FY2020 481.4 / 249.8 - 1 = 92.7%; FY2021 874.4 / 481.4 - 1 = 81.6%, about 82%; FY2022 1,451.6 / 874.4 - 1 = 66.0%; FY2023 2,241.2 / 1,451.6 - 1 = 54.4%; FY2024 3,055.6 / 2,241.2 - 1 = 36.3%; FY2025 3,953.6 / 3,055.6 - 1 = 29.4%, about 29%; FY2026 4,812.0 / 3,953.6 - 1 = 21.7%, about 22%; FY2024 to FY2026 4,812.0 / 3,055.6 - 1 = 57.5%, about 57%; compound FY2018-FY2026 (4,812.0 / 118.8)^(1/8) - 1 = 58.8%, about 59%; revenue grew about 40 times in eight years (4,812.0 / 118.8 = 40.5); FY2027 guidance midpoint (5,991.1 + 6,011.1) / 2 = 6,001.1, 6,001.1 / 4,812.0 - 1 = 24.7%, about 25%; H1 FY2027 revenue 2,856.5 / 6,001.1 = 47.6%; trailing revenue to 31 July 2026 4,812.0 - 2,272.4 + 2,856.5 = 5,396.1, about $5.40 billion. Subscription growth: FY2019 219.4 / 92.6 - 1 = 137.0%; FY2020 98.9%; FY2021 804.7 / 436.3 - 1 = 84.4%; FY2022 69.0%; FY2023 2,111.7 / 1,359.5 - 1 = 55.3%; FY2024 35.9%; FY2025 3,761.5 / 2,870.6 - 1 = 31.0%; FY2026 4,564.7 / 3,761.5 - 1 = 21.4%; H1 FY2027 2,721.1 / 2,153.7 - 1 = 26.3%, about 26%; compound FY2018-FY2026 (4,564.7 / 92.6)^(1/8) - 1 = 62.8%. Subscription added: FY2022 1,359.5 - 804.7 = 554.9; FY2023 2,111.7 - 1,359.5 = 752.1; FY2024 2,870.6 - 2,111.7 = 758.9; FY2025 890.9; FY2026 803.2. Subscription share of revenue FY2018 92.6 / 118.8 = 78%. Subscription gross profit FY2026 4,564.7 - 1,015.9 = 3,548.8. Professional services: revenue FY2018 118.8 - 92.6 = 26.2; FY2024 185.0 / 129.6 - 1 = 42.8%; FY2025 192.1 / 185.0 - 1 = 3.9%, about 4%; FY2026 247.3 / 192.1 - 1 = 28.7%, about 29%; compound FY2018-FY2026 (247.3 / 26.2)^(1/8) - 1 = 32.4%; gross profit FY2026 247.3 - 203.0 = 44.3; GAAP gross margin 44.3 / 247.3 = 17.9%, about 18%; share of gross profit 44.3 / 3,593.1 = 1.2%. Region: FY2026 growth United States 3,216.7 / 2,682.9 - 1 = 19.9%; EMEA 782.7 / 619.5 - 1 = 26.3%; Asia Pacific 495.7 / 402.5 - 1 = 23.2%; Other 317.0 / 248.7 - 1 = 27.4%. United States share FY2018 99.2 / 118.8 = 84%. ARR and net new ARR: ARR compound FY2018-FY2026 (5,252.8 / 141.3)^(1/8) - 1 = 57.1%, about 57%; net new ARR FY2026 5,252.8 - 4,241.8 = 1,010.9; FY2026 growth 1,010.9 / 806.7 - 1 = 25.3%, about 25%; FY2025 change 806.7 / 875.5 - 1 = -7.9%; FY2024 875.5 / 828.4 - 1 = 5.7%; FY2023 828.4 / 681.3 - 1 = 21.6%; H1 FY2027 net new ARR 255.8 + 332.8 = 588.6; FY2027 guided net new ARR 6,607.5 - 5,252.8 = 1,354.7; FY2027 ARR guidance midpoints: March (6,465.8 + 6,516.4) / 2 = 6,491.1, June (6,531.7 + 6,555.5) / 2 = 6,543.6, August (6,603.0 + 6,611.9) / 2 = 6,607.5; 6,607.5 / 5,252.8 - 1 = 25.8%, about 26%; FY2036 goal (20,000 / 5,252.8)^(1/10) - 1 = 14.3% a year; average net new ARR (20,000 - 5,252.8) / 10 = 1,474.7, about 1.47 billion. Falcon Flex: share of ARR 2.29 / 5.84 = 39%; Flex-account ARR a year earlier 2.29 / 2.01 = 1.14 billion; ARR outside Flex accounts 4.66 - 1.14 = 3.52 billion (July 2025) and 5.84 - 2.29 = 3.55 billion (July 2026), growth 3.55 / 3.52 - 1 = 0.8%, under 1%; ARR added 5.84 - 4.66 = 1.18 billion, of which Flex accounts 2.29 - 1.14 = 1.15 billion. Contracts: RPO within twelve months 0.46 x 10.7 = 4.9 billion (July 2026) and 0.51 x 9.0 = 4.6 billion (January 2026); RPO after twelve months 0.54 x 10.7 = 5.8 billion, 54% of RPO (July 2026), 0.49 x 9.0 = 4.4 billion (January 2026), 0.47 x 6.5 = 3.1 billion (January 2025), 0.37 x 3.4 = 1.3 billion (January 2023); RPO growth six months to July 2026 10.7 / 9.0 - 1 = 18.9%; FY2026 9.0 / 6.5 - 1 = 38.5%; RPO / trailing revenue 10.7 / 5.40 = about two years; unbilled backlog 5.9 / 2.8 - 1 = 111% in eighteen months. Deferred revenue 31 July 2026 3,497.1 + 1,345.1 = 4,842.2, about $4.84 billion; noncurrent share 1,345.1 / 4,842.2 = 27.8%, just over a quarter; deferred revenue 31 January 2025 2,733.0 + 995.7 = 3,728.7, 31 January 2026 3,421.1 + 1,332.4 = 4,753.4, growth 27.5%. Accounts receivable 1,038.6 / 1,470.9 = 71% of quarterly revenue. Subscription customers 29,000 / 23,019 - 1 = 26.0%, about 26%. H1 FY2027 revenue growth 2,856.5 / 2,272.4 - 1 = 25.7%, about 26%; H1 capital expenditure 222.0 / 116.2 = 1.9 times. Revenue per subscription customer FY2024 3,055.6 / 29,000 = about $105,000. Cash, costs and stock pay: GAAP operating margin FY2026 -293.3 / 4,812.0 = -6.1%; free cash flow margin FY2026 1,235.3 / 4,812.0 = 25.7%; FY2025 1,065.1 / 3,953.6 = 26.9%; FY2024 938.2 / 3,055.6 = 30.7%; free cash flow after stock pay 1,235.3 - 1,096.7 = 138.6, 138.6 / 4,812.0 = 2.9%; stock pay (cash flow) 1,096.7 / 4,812.0 = 22.8% (FY2026), 861.4 / 3,953.6 = 21.8% (FY2025), 648.7 / 3,055.6 = 21.2% (FY2024); stock pay and payroll tax 1,130.6 / 4,812.0 = 23.5% (FY2026), 903.6 / 3,953.6 = 22.9% (FY2025), 399.0 / 1,470.9 = 27.1% (Q2 FY2027), 276.7 / 1,169.0 = 23.7% (Q2 FY2026). Capital expenditure growth FY2024-FY2026 302.1 / 176.5 - 1 = 71.2%, about 71%; capex share of revenue FY2024 176.5 / 3,055.6 = 5.8%, FY2026 302.1 / 4,812.0 = 6.3%. Net cash 5,230.1 - 745.5 = 4,484.6, about $4.5 billion. Non-GAAP operating income guidance midpoint (1,497.2 + 1,508.4) / 2 = 1,502.8, 1,502.8 / 1,050 - 1 = 43%. July 19 incident net costs 60.1 + 117.7 = 177.8 (FY2025-FY2026) and 177.8 + 3.6 = 181.4, about $181 million through July 2026; update live 04:09 to 05:27 UTC = 78 minutes; cash against Delta claim 5,010 / 500 = about 10 times; a $250 million charge against free cash flow 250 / 1,235.3 = 20%, about a fifth. Acquisitions: cash consideration 96.4 + 213.7 + 252.7 + 212.1 + 327.5 + 627.9 = 1,730.3, about $1.7 billion; CyberArk against SGNL 21,061 / 627.9 = 33.5 times. Valuation: market value against Palo Alto Networks 258.72 / 306.54 = 0.84; Palo Alto price to sales 306.54 / 11.48 = 26.7; market value 25 September 2026 against 31 January 2026 258.718 / 111.278 = 2.3 times; price to trailing sales 258.718 / 5.396 = 47.9; analyst target 235.67 / 252.13 - 1 = -6.5%; market value over fiscal revenue 10.25 / 0.4814 = 21.3 (FY2020, December 2019 value), 46.86 / 0.8744 = 53.6 (FY2021, December 2020 value) - growth rates, margins and guidance. — FY2018-FY2027 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in CrowdStrike's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, its results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  6. Moat Explorer calcPut the two together and ARR in accounts outside Flex was about $3.52 billion in July 2025 and about $3.55 billion in July 2026, growth of under 1%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from CrowdStrike's reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end 31 January). Revenue growth: FY2019 249.8 / 118.8 - 1 = 110.4%; FY2020 481.4 / 249.8 - 1 = 92.7%; FY2021 874.4 / 481.4 - 1 = 81.6%, about 82%; FY2022 1,451.6 / 874.4 - 1 = 66.0%; FY2023 2,241.2 / 1,451.6 - 1 = 54.4%; FY2024 3,055.6 / 2,241.2 - 1 = 36.3%; FY2025 3,953.6 / 3,055.6 - 1 = 29.4%, about 29%; FY2026 4,812.0 / 3,953.6 - 1 = 21.7%, about 22%; FY2024 to FY2026 4,812.0 / 3,055.6 - 1 = 57.5%, about 57%; compound FY2018-FY2026 (4,812.0 / 118.8)^(1/8) - 1 = 58.8%, about 59%; revenue grew about 40 times in eight years (4,812.0 / 118.8 = 40.5); FY2027 guidance midpoint (5,991.1 + 6,011.1) / 2 = 6,001.1, 6,001.1 / 4,812.0 - 1 = 24.7%, about 25%; H1 FY2027 revenue 2,856.5 / 6,001.1 = 47.6%; trailing revenue to 31 July 2026 4,812.0 - 2,272.4 + 2,856.5 = 5,396.1, about $5.40 billion. Subscription growth: FY2019 219.4 / 92.6 - 1 = 137.0%; FY2020 98.9%; FY2021 804.7 / 436.3 - 1 = 84.4%; FY2022 69.0%; FY2023 2,111.7 / 1,359.5 - 1 = 55.3%; FY2024 35.9%; FY2025 3,761.5 / 2,870.6 - 1 = 31.0%; FY2026 4,564.7 / 3,761.5 - 1 = 21.4%; H1 FY2027 2,721.1 / 2,153.7 - 1 = 26.3%, about 26%; compound FY2018-FY2026 (4,564.7 / 92.6)^(1/8) - 1 = 62.8%. Subscription added: FY2022 1,359.5 - 804.7 = 554.9; FY2023 2,111.7 - 1,359.5 = 752.1; FY2024 2,870.6 - 2,111.7 = 758.9; FY2025 890.9; FY2026 803.2. Subscription share of revenue FY2018 92.6 / 118.8 = 78%. Subscription gross profit FY2026 4,564.7 - 1,015.9 = 3,548.8. Professional services: revenue FY2018 118.8 - 92.6 = 26.2; FY2024 185.0 / 129.6 - 1 = 42.8%; FY2025 192.1 / 185.0 - 1 = 3.9%, about 4%; FY2026 247.3 / 192.1 - 1 = 28.7%, about 29%; compound FY2018-FY2026 (247.3 / 26.2)^(1/8) - 1 = 32.4%; gross profit FY2026 247.3 - 203.0 = 44.3; GAAP gross margin 44.3 / 247.3 = 17.9%, about 18%; share of gross profit 44.3 / 3,593.1 = 1.2%. Region: FY2026 growth United States 3,216.7 / 2,682.9 - 1 = 19.9%; EMEA 782.7 / 619.5 - 1 = 26.3%; Asia Pacific 495.7 / 402.5 - 1 = 23.2%; Other 317.0 / 248.7 - 1 = 27.4%. United States share FY2018 99.2 / 118.8 = 84%. ARR and net new ARR: ARR compound FY2018-FY2026 (5,252.8 / 141.3)^(1/8) - 1 = 57.1%, about 57%; net new ARR FY2026 5,252.8 - 4,241.8 = 1,010.9; FY2026 growth 1,010.9 / 806.7 - 1 = 25.3%, about 25%; FY2025 change 806.7 / 875.5 - 1 = -7.9%; FY2024 875.5 / 828.4 - 1 = 5.7%; FY2023 828.4 / 681.3 - 1 = 21.6%; H1 FY2027 net new ARR 255.8 + 332.8 = 588.6; FY2027 guided net new ARR 6,607.5 - 5,252.8 = 1,354.7; FY2027 ARR guidance midpoints: March (6,465.8 + 6,516.4) / 2 = 6,491.1, June (6,531.7 + 6,555.5) / 2 = 6,543.6, August (6,603.0 + 6,611.9) / 2 = 6,607.5; 6,607.5 / 5,252.8 - 1 = 25.8%, about 26%; FY2036 goal (20,000 / 5,252.8)^(1/10) - 1 = 14.3% a year; average net new ARR (20,000 - 5,252.8) / 10 = 1,474.7, about 1.47 billion. Falcon Flex: share of ARR 2.29 / 5.84 = 39%; Flex-account ARR a year earlier 2.29 / 2.01 = 1.14 billion; ARR outside Flex accounts 4.66 - 1.14 = 3.52 billion (July 2025) and 5.84 - 2.29 = 3.55 billion (July 2026), growth 3.55 / 3.52 - 1 = 0.8%, under 1%; ARR added 5.84 - 4.66 = 1.18 billion, of which Flex accounts 2.29 - 1.14 = 1.15 billion. Contracts: RPO within twelve months 0.46 x 10.7 = 4.9 billion (July 2026) and 0.51 x 9.0 = 4.6 billion (January 2026); RPO after twelve months 0.54 x 10.7 = 5.8 billion, 54% of RPO (July 2026), 0.49 x 9.0 = 4.4 billion (January 2026), 0.47 x 6.5 = 3.1 billion (January 2025), 0.37 x 3.4 = 1.3 billion (January 2023); RPO growth six months to July 2026 10.7 / 9.0 - 1 = 18.9%; FY2026 9.0 / 6.5 - 1 = 38.5%; RPO / trailing revenue 10.7 / 5.40 = about two years; unbilled backlog 5.9 / 2.8 - 1 = 111% in eighteen months. Deferred revenue 31 July 2026 3,497.1 + 1,345.1 = 4,842.2, about $4.84 billion; noncurrent share 1,345.1 / 4,842.2 = 27.8%, just over a quarter; deferred revenue 31 January 2025 2,733.0 + 995.7 = 3,728.7, 31 January 2026 3,421.1 + 1,332.4 = 4,753.4, growth 27.5%. Accounts receivable 1,038.6 / 1,470.9 = 71% of quarterly revenue. Subscription customers 29,000 / 23,019 - 1 = 26.0%, about 26%. H1 FY2027 revenue growth 2,856.5 / 2,272.4 - 1 = 25.7%, about 26%; H1 capital expenditure 222.0 / 116.2 = 1.9 times. Revenue per subscription customer FY2024 3,055.6 / 29,000 = about $105,000. Cash, costs and stock pay: GAAP operating margin FY2026 -293.3 / 4,812.0 = -6.1%; free cash flow margin FY2026 1,235.3 / 4,812.0 = 25.7%; FY2025 1,065.1 / 3,953.6 = 26.9%; FY2024 938.2 / 3,055.6 = 30.7%; free cash flow after stock pay 1,235.3 - 1,096.7 = 138.6, 138.6 / 4,812.0 = 2.9%; stock pay (cash flow) 1,096.7 / 4,812.0 = 22.8% (FY2026), 861.4 / 3,953.6 = 21.8% (FY2025), 648.7 / 3,055.6 = 21.2% (FY2024); stock pay and payroll tax 1,130.6 / 4,812.0 = 23.5% (FY2026), 903.6 / 3,953.6 = 22.9% (FY2025), 399.0 / 1,470.9 = 27.1% (Q2 FY2027), 276.7 / 1,169.0 = 23.7% (Q2 FY2026). Capital expenditure growth FY2024-FY2026 302.1 / 176.5 - 1 = 71.2%, about 71%; capex share of revenue FY2024 176.5 / 3,055.6 = 5.8%, FY2026 302.1 / 4,812.0 = 6.3%. Net cash 5,230.1 - 745.5 = 4,484.6, about $4.5 billion. Non-GAAP operating income guidance midpoint (1,497.2 + 1,508.4) / 2 = 1,502.8, 1,502.8 / 1,050 - 1 = 43%. July 19 incident net costs 60.1 + 117.7 = 177.8 (FY2025-FY2026) and 177.8 + 3.6 = 181.4, about $181 million through July 2026; update live 04:09 to 05:27 UTC = 78 minutes; cash against Delta claim 5,010 / 500 = about 10 times; a $250 million charge against free cash flow 250 / 1,235.3 = 20%, about a fifth. Acquisitions: cash consideration 96.4 + 213.7 + 252.7 + 212.1 + 327.5 + 627.9 = 1,730.3, about $1.7 billion; CyberArk against SGNL 21,061 / 627.9 = 33.5 times. Valuation: market value against Palo Alto Networks 258.72 / 306.54 = 0.84; Palo Alto price to sales 306.54 / 11.48 = 26.7; market value 25 September 2026 against 31 January 2026 258.718 / 111.278 = 2.3 times; price to trailing sales 258.718 / 5.396 = 47.9; analyst target 235.67 / 252.13 - 1 = -6.5%; market value over fiscal revenue 10.25 / 0.4814 = 21.3 (FY2020, December 2019 value), 46.86 / 0.8744 = 53.6 (FY2021, December 2020 value) - growth rates, margins and guidance. — FY2018-FY2027 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in CrowdStrike's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, its results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  7. Moat Explorer calcAlmost all of the year's ARR growth, about $1.15 billion of $1.18 billion, sits in Flex accounts.
    Moat Explorer calculation from CrowdStrike's reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end 31 January). Revenue growth: FY2019 249.8 / 118.8 - 1 = 110.4%; FY2020 481.4 / 249.8 - 1 = 92.7%; FY2021 874.4 / 481.4 - 1 = 81.6%, about 82%; FY2022 1,451.6 / 874.4 - 1 = 66.0%; FY2023 2,241.2 / 1,451.6 - 1 = 54.4%; FY2024 3,055.6 / 2,241.2 - 1 = 36.3%; FY2025 3,953.6 / 3,055.6 - 1 = 29.4%, about 29%; FY2026 4,812.0 / 3,953.6 - 1 = 21.7%, about 22%; FY2024 to FY2026 4,812.0 / 3,055.6 - 1 = 57.5%, about 57%; compound FY2018-FY2026 (4,812.0 / 118.8)^(1/8) - 1 = 58.8%, about 59%; revenue grew about 40 times in eight years (4,812.0 / 118.8 = 40.5); FY2027 guidance midpoint (5,991.1 + 6,011.1) / 2 = 6,001.1, 6,001.1 / 4,812.0 - 1 = 24.7%, about 25%; H1 FY2027 revenue 2,856.5 / 6,001.1 = 47.6%; trailing revenue to 31 July 2026 4,812.0 - 2,272.4 + 2,856.5 = 5,396.1, about $5.40 billion. Subscription growth: FY2019 219.4 / 92.6 - 1 = 137.0%; FY2020 98.9%; FY2021 804.7 / 436.3 - 1 = 84.4%; FY2022 69.0%; FY2023 2,111.7 / 1,359.5 - 1 = 55.3%; FY2024 35.9%; FY2025 3,761.5 / 2,870.6 - 1 = 31.0%; FY2026 4,564.7 / 3,761.5 - 1 = 21.4%; H1 FY2027 2,721.1 / 2,153.7 - 1 = 26.3%, about 26%; compound FY2018-FY2026 (4,564.7 / 92.6)^(1/8) - 1 = 62.8%. Subscription added: FY2022 1,359.5 - 804.7 = 554.9; FY2023 2,111.7 - 1,359.5 = 752.1; FY2024 2,870.6 - 2,111.7 = 758.9; FY2025 890.9; FY2026 803.2. Subscription share of revenue FY2018 92.6 / 118.8 = 78%. Subscription gross profit FY2026 4,564.7 - 1,015.9 = 3,548.8. Professional services: revenue FY2018 118.8 - 92.6 = 26.2; FY2024 185.0 / 129.6 - 1 = 42.8%; FY2025 192.1 / 185.0 - 1 = 3.9%, about 4%; FY2026 247.3 / 192.1 - 1 = 28.7%, about 29%; compound FY2018-FY2026 (247.3 / 26.2)^(1/8) - 1 = 32.4%; gross profit FY2026 247.3 - 203.0 = 44.3; GAAP gross margin 44.3 / 247.3 = 17.9%, about 18%; share of gross profit 44.3 / 3,593.1 = 1.2%. Region: FY2026 growth United States 3,216.7 / 2,682.9 - 1 = 19.9%; EMEA 782.7 / 619.5 - 1 = 26.3%; Asia Pacific 495.7 / 402.5 - 1 = 23.2%; Other 317.0 / 248.7 - 1 = 27.4%. United States share FY2018 99.2 / 118.8 = 84%. ARR and net new ARR: ARR compound FY2018-FY2026 (5,252.8 / 141.3)^(1/8) - 1 = 57.1%, about 57%; net new ARR FY2026 5,252.8 - 4,241.8 = 1,010.9; FY2026 growth 1,010.9 / 806.7 - 1 = 25.3%, about 25%; FY2025 change 806.7 / 875.5 - 1 = -7.9%; FY2024 875.5 / 828.4 - 1 = 5.7%; FY2023 828.4 / 681.3 - 1 = 21.6%; H1 FY2027 net new ARR 255.8 + 332.8 = 588.6; FY2027 guided net new ARR 6,607.5 - 5,252.8 = 1,354.7; FY2027 ARR guidance midpoints: March (6,465.8 + 6,516.4) / 2 = 6,491.1, June (6,531.7 + 6,555.5) / 2 = 6,543.6, August (6,603.0 + 6,611.9) / 2 = 6,607.5; 6,607.5 / 5,252.8 - 1 = 25.8%, about 26%; FY2036 goal (20,000 / 5,252.8)^(1/10) - 1 = 14.3% a year; average net new ARR (20,000 - 5,252.8) / 10 = 1,474.7, about 1.47 billion. Falcon Flex: share of ARR 2.29 / 5.84 = 39%; Flex-account ARR a year earlier 2.29 / 2.01 = 1.14 billion; ARR outside Flex accounts 4.66 - 1.14 = 3.52 billion (July 2025) and 5.84 - 2.29 = 3.55 billion (July 2026), growth 3.55 / 3.52 - 1 = 0.8%, under 1%; ARR added 5.84 - 4.66 = 1.18 billion, of which Flex accounts 2.29 - 1.14 = 1.15 billion. Contracts: RPO within twelve months 0.46 x 10.7 = 4.9 billion (July 2026) and 0.51 x 9.0 = 4.6 billion (January 2026); RPO after twelve months 0.54 x 10.7 = 5.8 billion, 54% of RPO (July 2026), 0.49 x 9.0 = 4.4 billion (January 2026), 0.47 x 6.5 = 3.1 billion (January 2025), 0.37 x 3.4 = 1.3 billion (January 2023); RPO growth six months to July 2026 10.7 / 9.0 - 1 = 18.9%; FY2026 9.0 / 6.5 - 1 = 38.5%; RPO / trailing revenue 10.7 / 5.40 = about two years; unbilled backlog 5.9 / 2.8 - 1 = 111% in eighteen months. Deferred revenue 31 July 2026 3,497.1 + 1,345.1 = 4,842.2, about $4.84 billion; noncurrent share 1,345.1 / 4,842.2 = 27.8%, just over a quarter; deferred revenue 31 January 2025 2,733.0 + 995.7 = 3,728.7, 31 January 2026 3,421.1 + 1,332.4 = 4,753.4, growth 27.5%. Accounts receivable 1,038.6 / 1,470.9 = 71% of quarterly revenue. Subscription customers 29,000 / 23,019 - 1 = 26.0%, about 26%. H1 FY2027 revenue growth 2,856.5 / 2,272.4 - 1 = 25.7%, about 26%; H1 capital expenditure 222.0 / 116.2 = 1.9 times. Revenue per subscription customer FY2024 3,055.6 / 29,000 = about $105,000. Cash, costs and stock pay: GAAP operating margin FY2026 -293.3 / 4,812.0 = -6.1%; free cash flow margin FY2026 1,235.3 / 4,812.0 = 25.7%; FY2025 1,065.1 / 3,953.6 = 26.9%; FY2024 938.2 / 3,055.6 = 30.7%; free cash flow after stock pay 1,235.3 - 1,096.7 = 138.6, 138.6 / 4,812.0 = 2.9%; stock pay (cash flow) 1,096.7 / 4,812.0 = 22.8% (FY2026), 861.4 / 3,953.6 = 21.8% (FY2025), 648.7 / 3,055.6 = 21.2% (FY2024); stock pay and payroll tax 1,130.6 / 4,812.0 = 23.5% (FY2026), 903.6 / 3,953.6 = 22.9% (FY2025), 399.0 / 1,470.9 = 27.1% (Q2 FY2027), 276.7 / 1,169.0 = 23.7% (Q2 FY2026). Capital expenditure growth FY2024-FY2026 302.1 / 176.5 - 1 = 71.2%, about 71%; capex share of revenue FY2024 176.5 / 3,055.6 = 5.8%, FY2026 302.1 / 4,812.0 = 6.3%. Net cash 5,230.1 - 745.5 = 4,484.6, about $4.5 billion. Non-GAAP operating income guidance midpoint (1,497.2 + 1,508.4) / 2 = 1,502.8, 1,502.8 / 1,050 - 1 = 43%. July 19 incident net costs 60.1 + 117.7 = 177.8 (FY2025-FY2026) and 177.8 + 3.6 = 181.4, about $181 million through July 2026; update live 04:09 to 05:27 UTC = 78 minutes; cash against Delta claim 5,010 / 500 = about 10 times; a $250 million charge against free cash flow 250 / 1,235.3 = 20%, about a fifth. Acquisitions: cash consideration 96.4 + 213.7 + 252.7 + 212.1 + 327.5 + 627.9 = 1,730.3, about $1.7 billion; CyberArk against SGNL 21,061 / 627.9 = 33.5 times. Valuation: market value against Palo Alto Networks 258.72 / 306.54 = 0.84; Palo Alto price to sales 306.54 / 11.48 = 26.7; market value 25 September 2026 against 31 January 2026 258.718 / 111.278 = 2.3 times; price to trailing sales 258.718 / 5.396 = 47.9; analyst target 235.67 / 252.13 - 1 = -6.5%; market value over fiscal revenue 10.25 / 0.4814 = 21.3 (FY2020, December 2019 value), 46.86 / 0.8744 = 53.6 (FY2021, December 2020 value) - growth rates, margins and guidance. — FY2018-FY2027 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in CrowdStrike's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, its results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  8. ReportedIt does say Flex accounts added over $1 billion of in-quarter deal value in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.
    CrowdStrike fourth-quarter and fiscal 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - 97% gross retention, module adoption and Falcon Flex deal value. — Q4 FY2025 · publ. 4 March 2025 · source ↗
  9. ReportedIt is also why the contract book lengthens: less of the $10.7 billion of RPO is due within a year, and the unbilled backlog has more than doubled.
    CrowdStrike Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 July 2026 - remaining performance obligations of $10.7 billion (46% within twelve months), unbilled backlog of $5.9 billion, the SGNL, Seraphic and XM Cyber transactions, the $750 million 3.00% senior notes, legal proceedings, the DOJ and SEC requests, purchase commitments and the share repurchase programme. — Q2 FY2027 · publ. 27 August 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedFlex-account ARR grew more than 200% at October 2025, over 120% at January 2026 and 101% at July 2026; a slowing rate is what the conversion reading would predict as fewer large accounts remain to move.
    CrowdStrike third-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - ARR of $4.92 billion, net new ARR of $265.3 million and more than $1.35 billion of ending ARR in Falcon Flex accounts. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 2 December 2025 · source ↗
  11. ReportedFlex-account ARR grew more than 200% at October 2025, over 120% at January 2026 and 101% at July 2026; a slowing rate is what the conversion reading would predict as fewer large accounts remain to move.
    CrowdStrike fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - fourth-quarter and full-year results, ARR, retention and module adoption. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 3 March 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedFlex-account ARR grew more than 200% at October 2025, over 120% at January 2026 and 101% at July 2026; a slowing rate is what the conversion reading would predict as fewer large accounts remain to move.
    CrowdStrike second-quarter fiscal 2027 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - ARR, net new ARR, Falcon Flex, module adoption and retention. — Q2 FY2027 · publ. 26 August 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedNobody would price a stock at nearly 48 times sales on a flat base.
    CrowdStrike (CRWD) statistics - 1.03 billion shares, up 3.24% in a year; P/S 47.94, forward P/S 38.91, P/FCF 160.82; price up 111.73% in 52 weeks; net cash $4.19 billion. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026