⚠ Shut In by the Middle East ConflictModerate threat

Chevron (CVX) — threat to the moat

Israel's gas fields have concessions into the 2040s and a neighbourhood that shut them in during early 2026.

Long concessions are worth what the fields actually produce. In the first quarter of 2026 Chevron reported production curtailments in the Middle East, in Israel and in the Partitioned Zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait1. By the second quarter the 10-Q described the regional situation as one that "remains volatile with the potential for escalation"2.

Middle East exposure named by Chevron, 2026Israel gas fieldscurtailed, Q1 2026Partitioned Zonecurtailed, Q1 and Q2 2026CPChem Saudi Arabia and Qatarcurtailed, 2026International refinery inputsdown 10 percent, Q2 2026Chevron Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings releases; Q2 2026 Form 10-Q
Four parts of the business touched by one conflict.

Gas fields cannot be moved and gas cannot easily be stored. When the platforms stop, the lost volume is not caught up later; it is simply sold later, at whatever price then prevails.

The exposure is not only Israel. The Middle East conflict also curtailed CPChem's plants in Saudi Arabia and Qatar and raised the risks of lifting and transporting physical cargoes3. Chevron's portfolio has more of its eggs in this region than its Permian headline suggests.

The quarterly releases record the pattern. International upstream production in the second quarter of 2026 was held back by curtailments in the Partitioned Zone4, after first-quarter curtailments in Israel and the Partitioned Zone5.

The watch-point is Israeli production in the annual production table, 98 thousand barrels a day in 20256. Expanded capacity that does not raise that figure would mean the fields are being curtailed faster than they are being enlarged.

References
  1. ReportedIn the first quarter of 2026 Chevron reported production curtailments in the Middle East, in Israel and in the Partitioned Zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
    Chevron first-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedBy the second quarter the 10-Q described the regional situation as one that "remains volatile with the potential for escalation".
    Chevron Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - share repurchases, the Middle East conflict, Venezuela, OPEC+ exposure and litigation. — Q2 2026 · publ. 6 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe Middle East conflict also curtailed CPChem's plants in Saudi Arabia and Qatar and raised the risks of lifting and transporting physical cargoes.
    Chevron Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - share repurchases, the Middle East conflict, Venezuela, OPEC+ exposure and litigation. — Q2 2026 · publ. 6 August 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedInternational upstream production in the second quarter of 2026 was held back by curtailments in the Partitioned Zone, after first-quarter curtailments in Israel and the Partitioned Zone.
    Chevron second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - operations: production, refining, realisations, curtailments and business events. — Q2 2026 · publ. 31 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedInternational upstream production in the second quarter of 2026 was held back by curtailments in the Partitioned Zone, after first-quarter curtailments in Israel and the Partitioned Zone.
    Chevron first-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe watch-point is Israeli production in the annual production table, 98 thousand barrels a day in 2025.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Items 1 and 2: upstream operations, reserves, concessions and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026