Leviathan and Tamar: Gas Beside a WarNarrow moat

Chevron (CVX) — moat facet

Leviathan and Tamar are operated gas fields licensed into the 2040s, and they sit next to a war that has already shut them in once.

Chevron's Israeli gas is the kind of asset companies usually cannot buy at any price: operated, large and long-licensed. It holds 39.7 percent of the Leviathan field, which it operates under a concession that expires in 2044, and 25 percent of Tamar, also operated, whose concession runs to 20381. Israel produced 98 thousand barrels of oil equivalent a day for Chevron in 20252.

Gas production capacity, Israel (billion cubic feet a day)1.2Leviathan now1.4Leviathan,third pipeline2.1Leviathan Phase 11.0Tamar now1.6Tamar Phase 2Chevron Form 10-K FY2025
Leviathan is heading to 2.1 billion cubic feet a day.

Both fields are being enlarged. A third gathering pipeline is lifting Leviathan's gas capacity from about 1.2 to 1.4 billion cubic feet a day, and in early 2026 Chevron took the final investment decision on an expansion expected to raise upstream production capacity to 2.1 billion cubic feet a day3. Tamar's capacity is going from 1.0 to 1.2 billion cubic feet a day, with a second phase to about 1.64. The Tamar and Leviathan expansions started up in the first quarter of 20265.

This came with Noble Energy, which Chevron bought in October 2020 for $4,109 million in shares, about 58 million of them6. It was bought in the year Chevron lost $5,543 million7, which is when assets are cheapest.

The weakness is location, not geology. In the first quarter of 2026 Chevron reported production curtailments in the Middle East, including Israel8. A gas field that has to shut in when the region is at war earns its concession only in peacetime.

The Eastern Mediterranean is also part of Chevron's offshore growth plan: the 2026 budget's roughly $7 billion for offshore developments names Guyana, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf of America together9. That puts a region at war into the same budget line as two of Chevron's steadiest growth projects.

The Eastern Mediterranean is a narrow advantage on a short leash. Whether it widens depends on Leviathan delivering the expanded 2.1 billion cubic feet a day on schedule and without further war-related shut-ins; repeated curtailments would mean the concession is long and the output is not.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Expansions started in Q1 2026; Leviathan FID to 2.1 bcf/d.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Israel net production
98 MBOED (2025)

Operated gas with concessions to 2038 and 2044; war-related shut-ins would show up here first.

Source: Chevron Form 10-K, FY2025 ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Shut In by the Middle East Conflict
Israel's gas fields have concessions into the 2040s and a neighbourhood that shut them in during early 2026.
References
  1. ReportedIt holds 39.7 percent of the Leviathan field, which it operates under a concession that expires in 2044, and 25 percent of Tamar, also operated, whose concession runs to 2038.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Items 1 and 2: upstream operations, reserves, concessions and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIsrael produced 98 thousand barrels of oil equivalent a day for Chevron in 2025.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Items 1 and 2: upstream operations, reserves, concessions and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedA third gathering pipeline is lifting Leviathan's gas capacity from about 1.2 to 1.4 billion cubic feet a day, and in early 2026 Chevron took the final investment decision on an expansion expected to raise upstream production capacity to 2.1 billion cubic feet a day.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Items 1 and 2: upstream operations, reserves, concessions and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedTamar's capacity is going from 1.0 to 1.2 billion cubic feet a day, with a second phase to about 1.6.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Items 1 and 2: upstream operations, reserves, concessions and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe Tamar and Leviathan expansions started up in the first quarter of 2026.
    Chevron first-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThis came with Noble Energy, which Chevron bought in October 2020 for $4,109 million in shares, about 58 million of them.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2020 - the Noble Energy acquisition, the 2020 loss and the Venezuela impairment. — FY2020 · publ. February 2021 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIt was bought in the year Chevron lost $5,543 million, which is when assets are cheapest.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2020 - the Noble Energy acquisition, the 2020 loss and the Venezuela impairment. — FY2020 · publ. February 2021 · source ↗
  8. ReportedIn the first quarter of 2026 Chevron reported production curtailments in the Middle East, including Israel.
    Chevron first-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThe Eastern Mediterranean is also part of Chevron's offshore growth plan: the 2026 budget's roughly $7 billion for offshore developments names Guyana, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf of America together.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Items 1 and 2: upstream operations, reserves, concessions and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026