✦ Guyana: Eight Vessels by 2030Narrow moat

Chevron (CVX) — the future bets

Guyana's eight vessels could give Chevron about half a million gross barrels a day by 2030, on a schedule its rival sets.

Guyana is the largest growth engine Chevron owns and does not operate. The 10-K expects that "by 2030, eight FPSOs will be in production with an aggregate expected production capacity of approximately 1.7 million gross barrels of oil per day"1. Chevron's 30 percent share of that would be about 510 thousand barrels a day gross2, against 120 thousand in the half of 2025 it owned3.

Stabroek vesselsAug 2025ONE GUYANA,250k b/d2026Uaru2027Whiptail2029Hammerhead,150k b/d20308 vessels,1.7m b/d grossChevron Form 10-K FY2025; gross capacity
Eight vessels and 1.7 million gross barrels a day by 2030.

The sequence is set. The ONE GUYANA vessel, of about 250,000 gross barrels a day, reached first oil in August 2025; Uaru follows in 2026, Whiptail in 2027 and Hammerhead, of about 150,000 barrels a day, sanctioned in September 2025, in 20294. The block holds "more than 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent discovered recoverable resource"5.

This is the growth that makes Chevron's plan of 2 percent to 3 percent a year to 20306 credible. The Hess reserves booked in 2025 included 193 million barrels from Stabroek7.

The risk is that Chevron controls none of it. ExxonMobil sets the pace, and Chevron's page on its partner explains the relationship.

The Hess release described Guyana as "the world's largest oil discovery in the last 10 years"8, which is John Hess's claim rather than Chevron's own measurement, and which Chevron paid for accordingly.

Chevron's net production from Guyana is the figure that tests the bet. It should rise with each vessel; if it lags the vessel count, the gross capacity is not reaching Chevron's share.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Uaru due 2026, Whiptail 2027, Hammerhead 2029.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Guyana net production
120 MBOED (2025, half year owned)

Chevron's share of the vessel ramp; lagging the vessel count would mean the capacity is not reaching Chevron.

Source: Chevron Form 10-K, FY2025 ↗
References
  1. ReportedThe 10-K expects that "by 2030, eight FPSOs will be in production with an aggregate expected production capacity of approximately 1.7 million gross barrels of oil per day".
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Items 1 and 2: upstream operations, reserves, concessions and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcChevron's 30 percent share of that would be about 510 thousand barrels a day gross, against 120 thousand in the half of 2025 it owned.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Chevron's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Segment mix 2025: external sales upstream US 19,608, upstream international 33,844, downstream US 65,331, downstream international 65,545, All Other 104, total 184,432; upstream 19,608 + 33,844 = 53,452, 53,452 / 184,432 = 29.0%; downstream 65,331 + 65,545 = 130,876, 130,876 / 184,432 = 71.0%; upstream US 19,608 / 184,432 = 10.6%; upstream international 33,844 / 184,432 = 18.4%; downstream US 65,331 / 184,432 = 35.4%; downstream international 65,545 / 184,432 = 35.5%. Upstream share of external sales 2015 (4,117 + 15,587) / 129,925 = 15.2%. Intersegment: upstream US 25,910 / 45,518 = 56.9%. Segment earnings 2025: upstream 12,822, downstream 3,022, sum 15,844; downstream 3,022 / 15,844 = 19.1%; upstream 12,822 / 15,844 = 80.9%. Downstream assets 55,243 / 324,012 = 17.0%. Change 2024 to 2025: upstream 12,822 - 18,602 = -5,780; downstream 3,022 - 1,727 = +1,295; 1,295 / 5,780 = 22.4%; Brent 81 - 69 = 12, 5,780 / 12 = about 480 per $1. 2022 upstream 12,621 + 17,663 = 30,284; downstream 5,394 + 2,761 = 8,155. Margins 2025 on sales before eliminations: upstream US 5,815 / 45,518 = 12.8%; upstream international 7,007 / 42,861 = 16.3%; downstream US 1,375 / 72,485 = 1.9%; downstream international 1,647 / 69,925 = 2.4%. Earnings over year-end segment assets: upstream 12,822 / 256,975 = 5.0%; upstream US 5,815 / 84,559 = 6.9%; upstream international 7,007 / 168,200 = 4.2%; downstream 3,022 / 55,243 = 5.5%; downstream US 1,375 / 33,745 = 4.1%; downstream international 1,647 / 21,146 = 7.8%. US downstream 531 / 3,904 - 1 = -86.4%. CPChem 352 / 8,985 = 3.9%; 352 / 903 - 1 = -61.0%. TCO revenue 21,986 / 18,872 - 1 = 16.5%; TCO net income 2,496 / 5,779 - 1 = -56.8%. Hess net income 193 / 48,000 = 0.4%. ROCE 2015-2025: 2.5, -0.1, 5.0, 8.2, 2.0, -2.8, 9.4, 20.3, 11.9, 10.1, 6.6; sum 73.1 / 11 = 6.6% average; years at or above 8%: 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 = 5 of 11. Production: Permian 1,000 / US 1,858 = 54%; 1,000 / 3,723 = 27%; Australia 472 / 3,723 = 12.7%; Q2 2026 4,070 / 3,396 - 1 = 19.8%; 4,070 / 3,120 - 1 = 30.4%. Guyana 30% x 1.7 million gross = 510 thousand. Gas: 0.91 x 6 = 5.46 per barrel of oil equivalent; 5.46 / 70.80 = 7.7%; 1.8 billion cubic feet / 6,000 = 300 thousand boe a day. Reserves: 3,723 x 365 = 1,359 million boe a year; 10,591 / 1,359 = 7.8 years. California refining 290 + 257 = 547 of 1,099 = 49.8%. Largest holders 8.56 + 7.50 + 7.00 + 6.70 = 29.76%. Balance sheet and returns: net debt 34,461 / 17,756 = 1.94, up 94%; dividends per share 6.84 / 4.28 - 1 = 59.8%; 6.84 / 6.63 = 1.03; returns 27.1 / 12.3 = 2.2 times; free cash flow 16.6 - 12.751 = 3.8 bn; buyback authorisation 75 - 44 = 31 bn; Q2 2026 buyback 3.0 bn / 16.2 million = $185 a share; shares 1,980 / 1,755 - 1 = 12.8%, 1,980 - 1,755 = 225 million; employees 43,039 / 45,600 - 1 = -5.6%; operating and SG&A 33,444 / 29,240 - 1 = 14.4%, 33,444 - 29,240 = 4,204; DD&A 20,132 / 17,282 - 1 = 16.5%, +2,850; income tax 7,258 / 12,299 = 59.0%. Valuation: trailing sales 184,432 - 90,476 + 114,755 = 208,711; trailing net income 12,299 - 5,990 + 14,282 = 20,591; 403.40 / 20.591 = 19.6 times; 403.40 / 12.299 = 32.8 times; implied forward earnings 403.40 / 12.77 = 31.6 bn, 31.6 / 12.3 = 2.6 times; trailing EPS approximately 20,591 / 1,970 = 10.45. Swings: timing 2.9 + 1.4 = 4.3 bn; international downstream 1,013 + 2,457 = 3,470. Further: California inputs 261 + 253 = 514, 514 / 1,038 = 49.5%; GS Caltex 58 / 4,403 = 1.3%, 437 / 4,403 = 9.9%; equity affiliate income 3,000 / 5,131 - 1 = -41.5%; affiliate production 538 / 3,723 = 14.5%; Hess share of 2025 production increase 261 / 385 = 67.8%; enterprise value less market value 431.95 - 403.40 = 28.55 bn; capital employed 232,934 / 177,698 - 1 = 31.1%; total assets 324,012 - 256,938 = 67,074; Hess issuance 15% / 6% = 2.5 years, 15% / 3% = 5 years; external sales 2015 downstream US 48,420 + 4,426 = 52,846, downstream international 54,296 + 2,933 = 57,229; 2020 downstream US 32,589 - 2,150 = 30,439 - sales mix, production and ownership. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Chevron's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, earnings releases, proxy statement and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  3. ReportedChevron's 30 percent share of that would be about 510 thousand barrels a day gross, against 120 thousand in the half of 2025 it owned.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: earnings by segment, return on capital employed and financial ratios. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe ONE GUYANA vessel, of about 250,000 gross barrels a day, reached first oil in August 2025; Uaru follows in 2026, Whiptail in 2027 and Hammerhead, of about 150,000 barrels a day, sanctioned in September 2025, in 2029.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1A risk factors and Note 16 litigation and environmental matters. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe block holds "more than 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent discovered recoverable resource".
    Chevron Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, Chevron Completes Acquisition of Hess Corporation. — July 2025 · publ. 18 July 2025 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThis is the growth that makes Chevron's plan of 2 percent to 3 percent a year to 2030 credible.
    Yahoo Finance (Investing.com), Chevron projects $10-20 billion of annual buybacks - the Investor Day plan to 2030. — November 2025 · publ. 12 November 2025 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe Hess reserves booked in 2025 included 193 million barrels from Stabroek.
    Chevron Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Note 29 and property tables: the Hess acquisition and property, plant and equipment. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe Hess release described Guyana as "the world's largest oil discovery in the last 10 years", which is John Hess's claim rather than Chevron's own measurement, and which Chevron paid for accordingly.
    Chevron Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, Chevron Completes Acquisition of Hess Corporation. — July 2025 · publ. 18 July 2025 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026