✦ Copper and Quebrada Blanca 2Thin moat

Sumitomo Corporation (8053) — the future bets

Sumitomo's copper bet needs a mine in Chile to work and a price a quarter higher than last year.

After leaving nickel, Sumitomo's main growth commodity is copper. The equity earnings of its copper companies were ¥8.6 billion in the year to March 2025 and ¥15.7 billion in 2026, and are forecast at ¥27.3 billion1. The company cites operational improvements at QB2, the Quebrada Blanca 2 operation in Chile2.

Copper companies' equity earnings (¥ bn, years to March)8.6202515.7202627.32027 forecastSumitomo results presentation, May 2026
A small business growing fast.

Its equity copper production was 43.7 thousand tonnes in the latest year and is forecast at 47.3 thousand3, and its profit changes by ¥460 million for every $100 a tonne of copper4. The forecast assumes a copper price of $12,456 a tonne against $9,938 in the latest year5.

In the first quarter the Mineral Resources segment earned ¥25.4 billion against ¥10.6 billion, helped by higher copper prices6.

Mineral resources as a whole are a smaller part of Sumitomo than they were. The company's measure of mineral-resource underlying profit was ¥99.0 billion in the latest year against ¥425.0 billion from everything else, and is forecast at ¥124.0 billion against ¥491.0 billion7. In the first quarter the split was ¥38.0 billion against ¥126.0 billion8.

The measure is the copper companies' earnings. Reaching ¥27.3 billion depends on both QB2's operations and a copper price about a quarter higher than last year's average.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Earnings nearly doubled and are forecast higher.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Copper companies' equity earnings forecast
¥27.3bn against ¥15.7bn

Depends on QB2's operations and a $12,456 copper assumption.

Source: Sumitomo Corporation results presentation, May 2026 ↗
References
  1. ReportedThe equity earnings of its copper companies were ¥8.6 billion in the year to March 2025 and ¥15.7 billion in 2026, and are forecast at ¥27.3 billion.
    Sumitomo Corporation, results presentation for the year to March 2026 - mineral resources: copper, iron ore, aluminium, coal and the Madagascar nickel exit. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe company cites operational improvements at QB2, the Quebrada Blanca 2 operation in Chile.
    Sumitomo Corporation, results presentation for the year to March 2026 - mineral resources: copper, iron ore, aluminium, coal and the Madagascar nickel exit. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIts equity copper production was 43.7 thousand tonnes in the latest year and is forecast at 47.3 thousand, and its profit changes by ¥460 million for every $100 a tonne of copper.
    Sumitomo Corporation, results presentation for the year to March 2026 - mineral resources: copper, iron ore, aluminium, coal and the Madagascar nickel exit. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIts equity copper production was 43.7 thousand tonnes in the latest year and is forecast at 47.3 thousand, and its profit changes by ¥460 million for every $100 a tonne of copper.
    Sumitomo Corporation, results presentation for the year to March 2026 - mineral resources: copper, iron ore, aluminium, coal and the Madagascar nickel exit. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe forecast assumes a copper price of $12,456 a tonne against $9,938 in the latest year.
    Sumitomo Corporation, results presentation for the year to March 2026 - mineral resources: copper, iron ore, aluminium, coal and the Madagascar nickel exit. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIn the first quarter the Mineral Resources segment earned ¥25.4 billion against ¥10.6 billion, helped by higher copper prices.
    Sumitomo Corporation, results presentation for April-June 2026 - progress against the forecast, one-time items, the Madagascar sale, investment and the balance sheet. — April-June 2026 · publ. 31 July 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe company's measure of mineral-resource underlying profit was ¥99.0 billion in the latest year against ¥425.0 billion from everything else, and is forecast at ¥124.0 billion against ¥491.0 billion.
    Sumitomo Corporation, results presentation for the year to March 2026 - consolidated results, underlying profit, forecasts, sensitivities and the loss buffer. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedIn the first quarter the split was ¥38.0 billion against ¥126.0 billion.
    Sumitomo Corporation, results presentation for April-June 2026 - progress against the forecast, one-time items, the Madagascar sale, investment and the balance sheet. — April-June 2026 · publ. 31 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026