✦ The Unpenetrated HalfNarrow moat
Netflix (NFLX) — the future bets
More than half of the world's broadband households still do not have Netflix, though most of them live where members pay the least.
Netflix's largest remaining opportunity is the market it has not reached. It estimates it had penetrated less than 45% of its addressable market of broadband households at the end of 20251, and about 5% of television view share globally2.
The company is testing ways to reach the rest. It has begun re-testing free trials outside the United States and Britain3, and its lowest plans cost as little as the equivalent of $1 a month4. The ads tier took more than half of sign-ups in its markets by late 20245.
The catch is price. The remaining households are disproportionately in Asia-Pacific and Latin America, where revenue per membership was $7.29 and $8.24 a month in 20246. Growth there adds revenue slowly.
APAC was the fastest-growing region in 2025, at 21%7, which shows the opportunity is real.
The lowest plans cost the equivalent of about $1 a month in the cheapest markets8, a price designed to reach households that could never pay American rates. Every such household adds little revenue but spreads the fixed content bill a little further.
The penetration estimate also frames the valuation. If Netflix has reached less than 45% of broadband households9 with more than 325 million paid memberships10, the remaining households are a large pool, but the growth of recent years has come fastest in the regions where members pay least, as the regional revenue-per-member figures show.
The number to watch is the penetration estimate. If Netflix reports reaching past half of its addressable market by 2027, the unpenetrated half is converting; if the figure stalls, the remaining households may not want the service at any price.
APAC revenue +21% in 2025; free trials re-tested.
How much growth is left; a stalled estimate would mean the remaining households are not converting.
Source: Netflix Q1 2026 shareholder letter ↗- ReportedIt estimates it had penetrated less than 45% of its addressable market of broadband households at the end of 2025, and about 5% of television view share globally.Netflix first-quarter 2026 shareholder letter, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - the raised free cash flow forecast, TV view share, the InterPositive acquisition and Reed Hastings leaving the board. — Q1 2026 · publ. 16 April 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedIt estimates it had penetrated less than 45% of its addressable market of broadband households at the end of 2025, and about 5% of television view share globally.Netflix first-quarter 2026 shareholder letter, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - the raised free cash flow forecast, TV view share, the InterPositive acquisition and Reed Hastings leaving the board. — Q1 2026 · publ. 16 April 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedIt has begun re-testing free trials outside the United States and Britain, and its lowest plans cost as little as the equivalent of $1 a month.Netflix second-quarter 2026 shareholder letter, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - quarterly results, regional revenue, 2026 guidance, view hours, live programming and advertising - programming, engagement, live events and product. — Q2 2026 · publ. 16 July 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedIt has begun re-testing free trials outside the United States and Britain, and its lowest plans cost as little as the equivalent of $1 a month.Netflix Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business and Item 7 overview: the single segment, pricing plans, Open Connect, employees and the end of membership reporting. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedThe ads tier took more than half of sign-ups in its markets by late 2024.Netflix fourth-quarter 2024 shareholder letter, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - record net additions and ads-plan sign-ups. — Q4 2024 · publ. 21 January 2025 · source ↗
- ReportedThe remaining households are disproportionately in Asia-Pacific and Latin America, where revenue per membership was $7.29 and $8.24 a month in 2024.Netflix Form 10-K for fiscal 2024 - paid memberships and average monthly revenue per paying membership by region for 2022-2024, regional revenue for 2022, and the 2024 currency impact. — FY2024 · publ. January 2025 · source ↗
- ReportedAPAC was the fastest-growing region in 2025, at 21%, which shows the opportunity is real.Netflix Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: streaming revenue by region. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedThe lowest plans cost the equivalent of about $1 a month in the cheapest markets, a price designed to reach households that could never pay American rates.Netflix Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business and Item 7 overview: the single segment, pricing plans, Open Connect, employees and the end of membership reporting. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedIf Netflix has reached less than 45% of broadband households with more than 325 million paid memberships, the remaining households are a large pool, but the growth of recent years has come fastest in the regions where members pay least, as the regional revenue-per-member figures show.Netflix first-quarter 2026 shareholder letter, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - the raised free cash flow forecast, TV view share, the InterPositive acquisition and Reed Hastings leaving the board. — Q1 2026 · publ. 16 April 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedIf Netflix has reached less than 45% of broadband households with more than 325 million paid memberships, the remaining households are a large pool, but the growth of recent years has come fastest in the regions where members pay least, as the regional revenue-per-member figures show.Netflix fourth-quarter 2025 shareholder letter, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - 325 million paid memberships, 2026 guidance, advertising revenue, named competitors, content licensing and the pause in buybacks. — Q4 2025 · publ. 20 January 2026 · source ↗