⚠ Affidea Buys Nearly a ThirdModerate threat

Synektik (SNT) — threat to the moat

One diagnostic chain buys nearly a third of Synektik's radiopharmaceuticals.

The radiopharmaceutical business has the customer concentration the rest of Synektik lacks. Affidea, a chain of diagnostic centres, accounted for 29,0% of the segment's sales in the year to September 2025, and 32,3% a year earlier12. The company states that it sees a dependence on this customer3.

Affidea share of radiopharmaceutical sales (%)32,3FY202429,0FY2025Synektik annual management board reports
Down three points in a year.

At group level Affidea is only 2,5% of revenue4, so the risk is to the segment rather than the company. But a tracer has to be delivered within hours of being made, so a lost PET customer cannot be replaced by selling further away.

The dependence runs both ways. Nine cyclotrons serve 37 PET-CT scanners5, so a diagnostic chain has only a few producers within reach.

Synektik also holds 49% of Lom Scan, a diagnostic company in Białystok6, which gives it a small stake in the customer side of the market.

The dependence is also why the segment's customer base matters more than its size suggests. Radiopharmaceutical revenue excluding intragroup sales was 50,5 million złoty in the year to September 20257, and Affidea's share of it, a customer that could move part of its buying to one of the two other private producers or four public ones8, is roughly the segment's whole EBITDA910.

Affidea's share falling, as it did from 32,3% to 29,0%, while segment revenue grows, is the healthy direction. A rise back above a third would concentrate the segment again.

References
  1. ReportedAffidea, a chain of diagnostic centres, accounted for 29,0% of the segment's sales in the year to September 2025, and 32,3% a year earlier.
    Synektik annual management board report for the fiscal year to 30 September 2025 - risk factors, customers and suppliers (Intuitive's share of revenue and purchases, public procurement, Affidea, seasonality). — October 2024 - September 2025 · publ. December 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedAffidea, a chain of diagnostic centres, accounted for 29,0% of the segment's sales in the year to September 2025, and 32,3% a year earlier.
    Synektik annual management board report for the fiscal year to 30 September 2024 - Intuitive's share of revenue, public procurement share, installed base and procedures. — October 2023 - September 2024 · publ. December 2024 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe company states that it sees a dependence on this customer.
    Synektik annual management board report for the fiscal year to 30 September 2025 - risk factors, customers and suppliers (Intuitive's share of revenue and purchases, public procurement, Affidea, seasonality). — October 2024 - September 2025 · publ. December 2025 · source ↗
  4. ReportedAt group level Affidea is only 2,5% of revenue, so the risk is to the segment rather than the company.
    Synektik annual management board report for the fiscal year to 30 September 2025 - risk factors, customers and suppliers (Intuitive's share of revenue and purchases, public procurement, Affidea, seasonality). — October 2024 - September 2025 · publ. December 2025 · source ↗
  5. ReportedNine cyclotrons serve 37 PET-CT scanners, so a diagnostic chain has only a few producers within reach.
    Synektik annual management board report for the fiscal year to 30 September 2025 - description of the markets: robotic surgery in Poland, PET scanners, cyclotrons and NFZ-funded PET studies. — October 2024 - September 2025 · publ. December 2025 · source ↗
  6. ReportedSynektik also holds 49% of Lom Scan, a diagnostic company in Białystok, which gives it a small stake in the customer side of the market.
    Synektik S.A. and Synektik Group interim condensed financial statements for 1 October 2025 - 30 June 2026 (third quarter of the fiscal year) - income statement, segment note, cash flow and balance sheet. — October 2025 - June 2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedRadiopharmaceutical revenue excluding intragroup sales was 50,5 million złoty in the year to September 2025, and Affidea's share of it, a customer that could move part of its buying to one of the two other private producers or four public ones, is roughly the segment's whole EBITDA.
    Synektik annual management board report for the fiscal year to 30 September 2025 - risk factors, customers and suppliers (Intuitive's share of revenue and purchases, public procurement, Affidea, seasonality). — October 2024 - September 2025 · publ. December 2025 · source ↗
  8. ReportedRadiopharmaceutical revenue excluding intragroup sales was 50,5 million złoty in the year to September 2025, and Affidea's share of it, a customer that could move part of its buying to one of the two other private producers or four public ones, is roughly the segment's whole EBITDA.
    Synektik annual management board report for the fiscal year to 30 September 2025 - risk factors, customers and suppliers (Intuitive's share of revenue and purchases, public procurement, Affidea, seasonality). — October 2024 - September 2025 · publ. December 2025 · source ↗
  9. ReportedRadiopharmaceutical revenue excluding intragroup sales was 50,5 million złoty in the year to September 2025, and Affidea's share of it, a customer that could move part of its buying to one of the two other private producers or four public ones, is roughly the segment's whole EBITDA.
    Synektik Group audited consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year to 30 September 2025 (ESEF package) - revenue, costs, continuing and discontinued profit, earnings per share, segment note, cash flow. — October 2024 - September 2025 · publ. December 2025 · source ↗
  10. Moat Explorer calcRadiopharmaceutical revenue excluding intragroup sales was 50,5 million złoty in the year to September 2025, and Affidea's share of it, a customer that could move part of its buying to one of the two other private producers or four public ones, is roughly the segment's whole EBITDA.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Synektik's reported figures (thousands of złoty unless stated). Market value: 352,60 złoty x 8 529 129 shares = 3 007,4 million złoty (about 3,0 billion złoty); at the NBP rate of 3,8570 = $779,7 million (about $780 million). Trailing revenue to June 2026: 681 598,6 - 482 060,1 + 733 427,1 = 932 965,6 (about 933 million złoty). Trailing continuing net profit: 126 019,2 - 85 705,2 + 137 952,7 = 178 266,7; over 8 529 129 shares = 20,90 złoty; P/E 352,60 / 20,90 = 16,9. Equipment and IT segment EBITDA over segment revenue: 187 190,7 / 631 915,5 = 29,6% (FY2025); 143 577,5 / 579 299,1 = 24,8% (FY2024); 98 943,8 / 410 834,1 = 24,1% (FY2023); 29 865,3 / 139 272,7 = 21,4% (FY2022); 18 636,4 / 100 878,6 = 18,5% (FY2021); 19 605,9 / 112 126,1 = 17,5% (FY2019). Radiopharmaceutical segment EBITDA margin: 16 061,3 / 52 937,4 = 30,3% (FY2025); 16 276,6 / 46 615,7 = 34,9% (FY2024). Recurring revenue, trailing: 374,7 / 59,8 = 6,3 times (September 2022 to June 2026); installed base 142 / 37 = 3,8 times. Recurring revenue per year-end robot: 311,3 / 113 = 2,75 million złoty (FY2025); 193,9 / 86 = 2,25 million złoty (FY2024). Procedures per year-end robot, FY2025: Poland 19 800 / 75 = 264; Czechia and Slovakia 12 500 / 38 = 329. Revenue per average employee: 681,6 / 221 = 3,08 million złoty. Export share: 183,7 / 681,6 = 27,0%. Equipment segment share of revenue excluding intragroup sales: 631,1 / 681,6 = 92,6% (about 93%). Intuitive products: 44,9% x 681,6 = 306,0 million złoty; other equipment, IT and service 681,6 - 306,0 - 50,5 = 325,1 million złoty. Synektik market value over the Estonian contract: 3 007,4 / 41 = 73 (roughly seventy). Dividend paid February 2026: 10,75 x 8 529 129 = 91,7 million złoty; dividend per share 10,75 / 0,45 = 23,9 times since 2021. Free cash flow: FY2025 78,3 - 17,4 = 60,9 million złoty; FY2024 89,6 - 44,9 = 44,7 million złoty. IT4KAN price over market value: 4,15 / 3 007,4 = 0,14%. Recurring revenue, April-June 2025: 103,6 / 1,26 = 82,2 million złoty. Backlog plus active offers at June 2026: 44,2 + 160,8 = 205,0 million złoty. NFZ spending per robotic operation: 59 / 2,1 = 28 thousand złoty (2022); 167 / 5,4 = 31 thousand złoty (2023); 300 / 11 = 27 thousand złoty (2024). NFZ-funded PET studies: 96,1 / 89,3 - 1 = 7,6% (about 8%); per scanner 96 100 / 37 = about 2 600. Affidea: 29,0% x 52,9 = 15,3 million złoty, against segment EBITDA of 16,1 million złoty. Synektik's installed base as a share of Intuitive's: 142 / 11 710 = 1,2%. Czech and Slovak installed base: 42 / 16 = 2,6 times. Equipment segment purchases from others: 100 - 80,2 - 6,8 = 13,0%. Years of exclusivity from September 2026 to 31 December 2031: about 5,3. Year-end P/E and P/S (market value at 30 September over net profit and revenue; continuing profit from FY2024): 122,8 / 9,136 = 13,4 and 122,8 / 134,8 = 0,91 (FY2019); 190,2 / 8,811 = 21,6 and 1,52 (FY2020); 252,5 / 8,384 = 30,1 and 1,96 (FY2021); 237,5 / 10,709 = 22,2 and 1,42 (FY2022); 516,9 / 52,452 = 9,9 and 1,16 (FY2023); 1 635,9 / 98,909 = 16,5 and 2,62 (FY2024); 2 149,3 / 126,019 = 17,1 and 3,15 (FY2025); market values from closing prices of 14,40 złoty, 22,30, 29,60, 27,85, 60,60, 191,80 and 252,00 x 8 529 129. — October 2018 - June 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Synektik's financial statements, management board reports, factsheet and market data; operands shown in the source line.
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026