⚠ Fewer Instruments per OperationModerate threat

Synektik (SNT) — threat to the moat

Intuitive can cut the instrument revenue per operation that Synektik lives on, and has announced it will for benign procedures from 2027.

Part of Synektik's recurring revenue depends on a rule it does not write: how many times an instrument may be used. Intuitive's Extended Use Program will increase usage counts for select EndoWrist instruments in the first half of 2027, to lower the cost of benign procedures1.

Recurring revenue per installed robot (zł m, year-end base)2,25FY20242,75FY2025Moat Explorer calculation: 193,9/86 and 311,3/113; Synektik annual reports
Rising for now; the instrument rules can change it.

For hospitals that is a price cut. For the company that sells them the instruments it means fewer instruments per operation. Synektik does not disclose how much of its 374,7 million złoty of trailing recurring revenue2 is instruments rather than service or accessories, so the exposure cannot be sized from the outside.

The reimbursed Polish procedures are cancer operations3, not the benign procedures the program targets, which limits the effect. But the precedent matters: the price of a large part of Synektik's recurring revenue is set in California.

Intuitive's investors have noticed the same tension from the other side: the call coverage records that they remain focused on the future impact of the program on instrument revenue per procedure4. For Synektik, which resells those instruments, that is revenue per procedure too.

Recurring revenue per installed robot, about 2,75 million złoty in the year to September 20255, is where the program would appear. A fall after 2027 while procedures still grow would show it at work.

References
  1. ReportedIntuitive's Extended Use Program will increase usage counts for select EndoWrist instruments in the first half of 2027, to lower the cost of benign procedures.
    Intuitive Surgical Q2 2026 earnings call coverage - the Extended Use Program raising usage counts on select EndoWrist instruments from the first half of 2027 to lower costs for benign procedures. Same document as Intuitive's own _IS_CALL record. — Q2 2026 · publ. July 16, 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedSynektik does not disclose how much of its 374,7 million złoty of trailing recurring revenue is instruments rather than service or accessories, so the exposure cannot be sized from the outside.
    Synektik S.A. and Synektik Group interim condensed financial statements for 1 October 2025 - 30 June 2026 (third quarter of the fiscal year) - management commentary: orders, backlog, da Vinci systems and procedures, recurring revenue, radiopharmaceutical sales and seasonality. — October 2025 - June 2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe reimbursed Polish procedures are cancer operations, not the benign procedures the program targets, which limits the effect.
    Polityka Zdrowotna - NFZ spending on robotic cancer operations: 2 100 operations for 59 million złoty in 2022, 5 400 for 167 million złoty in 2023, about 300 million złoty on nearly 11 000 in 2024; only prostate, colorectal and uterine cancer reimbursed; average cost about 30 thousand złoty. — 2022-2024 · publ. 2025 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIntuitive's investors have noticed the same tension from the other side: the call coverage records that they remain focused on the future impact of the program on instrument revenue per procedure.
    Intuitive Surgical Q2 2026 earnings call coverage - the Extended Use Program raising usage counts on select EndoWrist instruments from the first half of 2027 to lower costs for benign procedures. Same document as Intuitive's own _IS_CALL record. — Q2 2026 · publ. July 16, 2026 · source ↗
  5. Moat Explorer calcRecurring revenue per installed robot, about 2,75 million złoty in the year to September 2025, is where the program would appear.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Synektik's reported figures (thousands of złoty unless stated). Market value: 352,60 złoty x 8 529 129 shares = 3 007,4 million złoty (about 3,0 billion złoty); at the NBP rate of 3,8570 = $779,7 million (about $780 million). Trailing revenue to June 2026: 681 598,6 - 482 060,1 + 733 427,1 = 932 965,6 (about 933 million złoty). Trailing continuing net profit: 126 019,2 - 85 705,2 + 137 952,7 = 178 266,7; over 8 529 129 shares = 20,90 złoty; P/E 352,60 / 20,90 = 16,9. Equipment and IT segment EBITDA over segment revenue: 187 190,7 / 631 915,5 = 29,6% (FY2025); 143 577,5 / 579 299,1 = 24,8% (FY2024); 98 943,8 / 410 834,1 = 24,1% (FY2023); 29 865,3 / 139 272,7 = 21,4% (FY2022); 18 636,4 / 100 878,6 = 18,5% (FY2021); 19 605,9 / 112 126,1 = 17,5% (FY2019). Radiopharmaceutical segment EBITDA margin: 16 061,3 / 52 937,4 = 30,3% (FY2025); 16 276,6 / 46 615,7 = 34,9% (FY2024). Recurring revenue, trailing: 374,7 / 59,8 = 6,3 times (September 2022 to June 2026); installed base 142 / 37 = 3,8 times. Recurring revenue per year-end robot: 311,3 / 113 = 2,75 million złoty (FY2025); 193,9 / 86 = 2,25 million złoty (FY2024). Procedures per year-end robot, FY2025: Poland 19 800 / 75 = 264; Czechia and Slovakia 12 500 / 38 = 329. Revenue per average employee: 681,6 / 221 = 3,08 million złoty. Export share: 183,7 / 681,6 = 27,0%. Equipment segment share of revenue excluding intragroup sales: 631,1 / 681,6 = 92,6% (about 93%). Intuitive products: 44,9% x 681,6 = 306,0 million złoty; other equipment, IT and service 681,6 - 306,0 - 50,5 = 325,1 million złoty. Synektik market value over the Estonian contract: 3 007,4 / 41 = 73 (roughly seventy). Dividend paid February 2026: 10,75 x 8 529 129 = 91,7 million złoty; dividend per share 10,75 / 0,45 = 23,9 times since 2021. Free cash flow: FY2025 78,3 - 17,4 = 60,9 million złoty; FY2024 89,6 - 44,9 = 44,7 million złoty. IT4KAN price over market value: 4,15 / 3 007,4 = 0,14%. Recurring revenue, April-June 2025: 103,6 / 1,26 = 82,2 million złoty. Backlog plus active offers at June 2026: 44,2 + 160,8 = 205,0 million złoty. NFZ spending per robotic operation: 59 / 2,1 = 28 thousand złoty (2022); 167 / 5,4 = 31 thousand złoty (2023); 300 / 11 = 27 thousand złoty (2024). NFZ-funded PET studies: 96,1 / 89,3 - 1 = 7,6% (about 8%); per scanner 96 100 / 37 = about 2 600. Affidea: 29,0% x 52,9 = 15,3 million złoty, against segment EBITDA of 16,1 million złoty. Synektik's installed base as a share of Intuitive's: 142 / 11 710 = 1,2%. Czech and Slovak installed base: 42 / 16 = 2,6 times. Equipment segment purchases from others: 100 - 80,2 - 6,8 = 13,0%. Years of exclusivity from September 2026 to 31 December 2031: about 5,3. Year-end P/E and P/S (market value at 30 September over net profit and revenue; continuing profit from FY2024): 122,8 / 9,136 = 13,4 and 122,8 / 134,8 = 0,91 (FY2019); 190,2 / 8,811 = 21,6 and 1,52 (FY2020); 252,5 / 8,384 = 30,1 and 1,96 (FY2021); 237,5 / 10,709 = 22,2 and 1,42 (FY2022); 516,9 / 52,452 = 9,9 and 1,16 (FY2023); 1 635,9 / 98,909 = 16,5 and 2,62 (FY2024); 2 149,3 / 126,019 = 17,1 and 3,15 (FY2025); market values from closing prices of 14,40 złoty, 22,30, 29,60, 27,85, 60,60, 191,80 and 252,00 x 8 529 129. — October 2018 - June 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Synektik's financial statements, management board reports, factsheet and market data; operands shown in the source line.
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026