⚠ Accounts Instead of CardsModerate threat

Mastercard (MA) — threat to the moat

Pix went from 1% to 52% of Brazilian transactions in under five years without issuing a single card.

The most serious long-run threat to a card network is a payment that never touches a card. Mastercard's own filing warns that government- and central bank-backed structures such as Brazil's PIX, FedNow in the United States and UPI in India are "increasingly being considered as alternatives to traditional domestic payment solutions and schemes such as ours"1.

Pix share of Brazilian transactions (%)1%Q4 202052%H1 2025Central Bank of Brazil via StoneCo Form 20-F FY2025
A free public rail took half the transactions in under five years.

Brazil shows how fast it can happen. According to the Central Bank, Pix went from 1% of Brazilian transactions in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 52% in the first half of 2025, and from 1% to more than 26% of the money moved2. A payment rail that is free to the merchant and run as a public good does not need to win on features.

Mastercard's answer is to own some of the rails that compete with it. It runs Vocalink, a real-time account-based payments platform that the Bank of England has designated a specified service provider3. But running the pipes of an account-to-account system earns a processing fee, not the assessments a card brand collects.

The threat is not confined to emerging markets. Mastercard's filing lists FedNow, the Federal Reserve's instant payment service, alongside Pix and UPI4, and it warns that several industry initiatives are experimenting with account-based global schemes that could disrupt the clearing and settlement options used in various currencies5. In the United States, where card habits are deep and rewards are generous, a public rail has to overcome the incentive a cardholder gets for paying by card. That is a high bar, and it is why the American threat is slow; it is not a reason to think it is absent.

The warning sign would be a large card market where domestic assessments shrink in local currency. Domestic assessments were $11,029 million in 2025, up from $10,245 million6; a fall in that line would say the Pix pattern has reached a market that matters to Mastercard's revenue.

References
  1. ReportedMastercard's own filing warns that government- and central bank-backed structures such as Brazil's PIX, FedNow in the United States and UPI in India are "increasingly being considered as alternatives to traditional domestic payment solutions and schemes such as ours".
    Mastercard Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: the network, competition, tokenization, account-based payments and human capital. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedAccording to the Central Bank, Pix went from 1% of Brazilian transactions in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 52% in the first half of 2025, and from 1% to more than 26% of the money moved.
    StoneCo Form 20-F for FY2025, citing the Central Bank of Brazil: Pix's share of the number of transactions rose from 1% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 52% in the first half of 2025, and its share of volume to more than 26%. — FY2025 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIt runs Vocalink, a real-time account-based payments platform that the Bank of England has designated a specified service provider.
    Mastercard Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: the network, competition, tokenization, account-based payments and human capital. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedMastercard's filing lists FedNow, the Federal Reserve's instant payment service, alongside Pix and UPI, and it warns that several industry initiatives are experimenting with account-based global schemes that could disrupt the clearing and settlement options used in various currencies.
    Mastercard Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1A risk factors and Note 19 legal and regulatory proceedings. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedMastercard's filing lists FedNow, the Federal Reserve's instant payment service, alongside Pix and UPI, and it warns that several industry initiatives are experimenting with account-based global schemes that could disrupt the clearing and settlement options used in various currencies.
    Mastercard Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1A risk factors and Note 19 legal and regulatory proceedings. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedDomestic assessments were $11,029 million in 2025, up from $10,245 million; a fall in that line would say the Pix pattern has reached a market that matters to Mastercard's revenue.
    Mastercard Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: the network, competition, tokenization, account-based payments and human capital. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026