⚠ Open Banking Routes Around the CardModerate threat

Mastercard (MA) — threat to the moat

The open-banking rails Mastercard bought into are the same rails that let a customer pay without a card.

The same open-banking rails Mastercard bought into can be used to bypass its card network. Its filing notes that several industry initiatives are experimenting with the concept of account-based global schemes, which could disrupt the clearing and settlement options used in various currencies1.

Domestic assessments ($M)8,79420229,566202310,245202411,0292025Mastercard Forms 10-K FY2022-FY2025
Still growing, and the line most exposed.

Owning Finicity gives Mastercard a seat in that market, but the economics of account-based payments are set by banks and regulators, not by a card brand. In Europe the rules also require Mastercard to separate its scheme and switching activities2, which pushes toward more competition in the plumbing.

The risk grows with every merchant that offers pay-by-bank at checkout, because each is a transaction that would otherwise have carried a Mastercard assessment.

Mastercard's position here is uncomfortable but not weak. It is simultaneously a card network that loses when payments move to accounts and an open-banking provider that earns when they do. The filing's strategy describes giving consumers choice across cards, real-time payments and account-based transactions3. The question is only the exchange rate between the two: how much open-banking revenue replaces a dollar of lost domestic assessments. Nothing in the filings answers it yet.

Domestic assessments are the line exposed. They grew 8% in 20254; growth below the rise in consumer spending in major markets would suggest accounts are taking share.

References
  1. ReportedIts filing notes that several industry initiatives are experimenting with the concept of account-based global schemes, which could disrupt the clearing and settlement options used in various currencies.
    Mastercard Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1A risk factors and Note 19 legal and regulatory proceedings. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIn Europe the rules also require Mastercard to separate its scheme and switching activities, which pushes toward more competition in the plumbing.
    Mastercard Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: net revenue by category, key metrics, rebates, geography and the five largest customers. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe filing's strategy describes giving consumers choice across cards, real-time payments and account-based transactions.
    Mastercard Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: the network, competition, tokenization, account-based payments and human capital. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThey grew 8% in 2025; growth below the rise in consumer spending in major markets would suggest accounts are taking share.
    Mastercard Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: net revenue by category, key metrics, rebates, geography and the five largest customers. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026