✦ Commercial Payments: Business Spending Still Paid by InvoiceNarrow moat

Mastercard (MA) — the future bets

Business payments are the largest pool of money still paid by invoice, and Mastercard moves it to cards about 11% a year.

Most business-to-business payments still move by bank transfer, cheque and invoice, which makes them the largest pool of spending not yet on cards. Mastercard's commercial credit and debit gross dollar volume was $1,405 billion in 2025, up 11%1, about 13% of total gross dollar volume2. Commercial debit and credit volumes grew 12% in the second quarter of 20263.

Gross dollar volume by product, 2025 ($bn)5,349Consumer debit and prepaid3,878Consumer credit1,405CommercialMastercard Form 10-K FY2025; excludes Maestro and Cirrus
The smallest product line, and the one with the most room.

The strategy names commercial and new payment flows as one of three priorities4. The prize is larger tickets and higher-value data, and the services that come with them: expense management, virtual cards for suppliers, cross-border business payments.

The competition is different from consumer cards. A company's treasurer weighs a card against a bank transfer that costs almost nothing, and the card has to justify its fee through float, data or rebates. Account-based payments, including the ACH capabilities Mastercard itself offers5, are the default alternative.

The bet is sensible and slow. Commercial volume grew only a little faster than the company's total gross dollar volume in 2025.

The product breakdown shows how much room there is. Consumer debit and prepaid volume was $5,349 billion in 2025 and consumer credit $3,878 billion6, against $1,405 billion for commercial credit and debit7. Commercial grew 11%, faster than consumer credit's 8% and consumer debit's 9%8. The strategy names commercial and new payment flows alongside consumer payments and services as the company's three priorities9, a sign that management sees it as the largest remaining pool of payments not yet on cards.

The share of commercial volume in total gross dollar volume, about 13% in 2025, is the thing to watch. A rise toward 15% within a few years would say business payments are genuinely moving to cards.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Commercial volume grew 11% in 2025 and 12% in Q2 2026.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Commercial credit and debit volume
$1,405bn in 2025, +11%; +12% in Q2 2026

Business spending moving to cards; growth well above total volume would show the shift accelerating.

Source: Mastercard Form 10-K, FY2025 ↗
References
  1. ReportedMastercard's commercial credit and debit gross dollar volume was $1,405 billion in 2025, up 11%, about 13% of total gross dollar volume.
    Mastercard Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: key metrics, assessments and rebates. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcMastercard's commercial credit and debit gross dollar volume was $1,405 billion in 2025, up 11%, about 13% of total gross dollar volume.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Mastercard's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Gross payment network assessments 2025: 11,029 + 12,021 + 15,930 + 1,018 = 39,998; rebates 20,522 / 39,998 = 51.3%; 2024: 10,245 + 10,181 + 13,602 + 936 = 34,964, 17,629 / 34,964 = 50.4%; 2023: 15,182 / (15,824 + 15,182) = 49.0%; 2022: 8,794 + 6,597 + 10,646 + 766 = 26,803, 12,445 / 26,803 = 46.4%; 2021: 10,476 / (11,943 + 10,476) = 46.7%. Q2 2026: 5,997 / (5,451 + 5,997) = 52.4%; gross assessments growth (5,451 + 5,997) / (4,945 + 5,997 / 1.22) - 1 = about 16%. Old basis: 3,980 / 13,647 = 29.2% (2015); 8,315 / 23,616 = 35.2% (2020). Rebates 20,522 / 3,980 = 5.2 times; net revenue 32,791 / 9,667 = 3.4 times. Rebates against gross revenue 2025: 20,522 / (32,791 + 20,522 = 53,313) = 38.5%; Visa 15,751 / (40,000 + 15,751 = 55,751) = 28.3%; difference 20,522 - 15,751 = 4,771. US share: 2,958 / (2,958 + 7,028) = 29.6%; four networks 2,958 / 11,463 = 25.8%; Amex and Discover 11,463 - 9,986 = 1,477, 1,477 / 11,463 = 12.9%. Outside the US 100% - 29% = 71%. Cross-border assessments 12,021 / 3,498 = 3.4 times; cross-border volume fees 3,512 / 5,606 - 1 = -37.4%; 12,021 x 0.37 = 4,448. Services share of net revenue: 5,404 / 15,301 = 35.3% (2020); 6,941 / 18,884 = 36.8%; 7,879 / 22,237 = 35.4%; 9,274 / 25,098 = 37.0%; 10,832 / 28,167 = 38.5%; 13,315 / 32,791 = 40.6% (2025); 3,826 / 9,277 = 41.2% (Q2 2026); payment network 19,476 / 32,791 = 59.4%. Growth: payment network 11,943 / 9,897 - 1 = 21%, 14,358 / 11,943 - 1 = 20%, 15,824 / 14,358 - 1 = 10%, 17,335 / 15,824 - 1 = 10%, 19,476 / 17,335 - 1 = 12%; 19,476 / 9,897 = 2.0 times; services 7,879 / 6,941 - 1 = 14% (2022), 13,315 / 5,404 = 2.5 times; growth gap Q2 2026 20% - 10% = 10 points; acquisitions 3 / 23 = 13%. Operating margin: 5,078 / 9,667 = 52.5% (2015); 6,622 / 12,497 = 53.0% (2017); 7,282 / 14,950 = 48.7% (2018); 9,664 / 16,883 = 57.2% (2019); 8,081 / 15,301 = 52.8% (2020); 12,264 / 22,237 = 55.2% (2022). Headcount 39,800 / 13,400 = 3.0 times; net revenue 32,791 / 12,497 = 2.6 times (2017-2025). Capital spending 489 + 726 = 1,215; 1,215 / 32,791 = 3.7%; free cash flow 17,648 - 1,215 = 16,433; returned 11,727 + 2,756 = 14,483, 14,483 / 16,433 = 88%. Net debt 30 June 2026: 2,459 + 22,184 - 11,291 = 13,352. Diluted shares 906 / 1,137 - 1 = -20.3%; EPS 16.52 / 3.35 = 4.9 times, (16.52 / 3.35)^(1/10) - 1 = 17.3% a year; net income 14,968 / 3,808 = 3.9 times; net revenue (32,791 / 9,667)^(1/10) - 1 = 13.0% a year. Year-end P/E (market value over net income): 109.31 / 3.808 = 28.7 (2015); 160.24 / 3.915 = 40.9 (2017); 301.24 / 8.118 = 37.1 (2019); 353.05 / 8.687 = 40.6 (2021); 334.33 / 9.930 = 33.7 (2022); 483.30 / 12.874 = 37.5 (2024); 512.65 / 14.968 = 34.2 (2025); earnings yield 1 / 31.13 = 3.2%. Litigation provision against net income: 504 / 14,968 = 3.4%; 539 / 11,195 = 4.8%; 680 / 12,874 = 5.3%. Tax: pre-tax income 2025 14,968 + 3,610 = 18,578; (19.4% - 15.6%) x 18,578 = about 706. Amortised incentives 2,098 / 19,476 = 10.8%. Five-customer net revenue 6.9 bn. BVNK 1,500 / 11,727 = 13% of 2025 buybacks; acquisitions since 2020 809 + 861 + 325 + 2,700 + 1,500 = 6,195, 1,500 / 6,195 = 24%. Recorded Future 2,700 / 14,968 = 18%. Commercial gross dollar volume 1,405 / 10,632 = 13.2%. Property, equipment and right-of-use assets 1,168 + 1,135 = 2,303 - rebates, assessments and growth. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Mastercard's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases, the Visa 10-K and the Nilson Report; operands shown in the source line.
  3. ReportedCommercial debit and credit volumes grew 12% in the second quarter of 2026.
    Yahoo Finance / GuruFocus, Mastercard Q2 2026 earnings call highlights (third-party summary of the call). — Q2 2026 · publ. 31 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe strategy names commercial and new payment flows as one of three priorities.
    Mastercard Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: net revenue by category, key metrics, rebates, geography and the five largest customers. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedAccount-based payments, including the ACH capabilities Mastercard itself offers, are the default alternative.
    Mastercard Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: net revenue by category, key metrics, rebates, geography and the five largest customers. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedConsumer debit and prepaid volume was $5,349 billion in 2025 and consumer credit $3,878 billion, against $1,405 billion for commercial credit and debit.
    Mastercard Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: key metrics, assessments and rebates. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedConsumer debit and prepaid volume was $5,349 billion in 2025 and consumer credit $3,878 billion, against $1,405 billion for commercial credit and debit.
    Mastercard Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: key metrics, assessments and rebates. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedCommercial grew 11%, faster than consumer credit's 8% and consumer debit's 9%.
    Mastercard Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: net revenue by category, key metrics, rebates, geography and the five largest customers. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThe strategy names commercial and new payment flows alongside consumer payments and services as the company's three priorities, a sign that management sees it as the largest remaining pool of payments not yet on cards.
    Mastercard Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: value-added services and solutions. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026