◆ What the Market Isn't Pricing In

Ferrari (RACE) — the variant view

The brand line compounds at 22% on almost no capital, and the pricing power is not an inference — it is an arithmetic fact repeated four reporting periods running.

📈 RACE valuation, revenue & earnings — P/E, P/S, revenue, EPS →

Three things about Ferrari sit in the filings and get lost in the argument about the multiple.

Three things in the filings22.4%brand-line growthvs 4.8% for cars€9.6bntotal assets behinda €63bn company30.7%return on investedcapital, ~8% hurdle€1,613M of those assets is a financing book, not a factory.
The brand line compounds at 22% on no capital, and returns run at almost four times the hurdle. Both are in the 20-F.

The first is that the brand business is outgrowing the car business, by a lot. Sponsorship, commercial and brand revenue — Formula 1 money, lifestyle, merchandising, licensing and royalties — was €820 million in 2025, up 22.4%, against cars and spare parts at €6,005 million up 4.8%.1 That line has gone from €572 million to €820 million in two years while shipments went nowhere. It carries no manufacturing cost, no waiting list and no volume constraint, and it is the part of Ferrari that most resembles a luxury house rather than a carmaker. At 11.5% of revenue it is not yet decisive. Compounding at 22% it does not need long to be.

The second is that the company earns these returns on almost no capital. Total assets are €9,628 million against a market value near €63 billion, and €1,613 million of those assets are a captive financing book that has nothing to do with making cars.2 Return on invested capital was about 30.7% in 2025 against a cost of capital nearer 8% — and that is the conservative reading, taking equity plus debt less cash; strip out the financing receivables and it is materially higher.3 Ferrari is a brand that happens to own a factory, and the balance sheet says so.

The third is that the pricing power is not an inference, it is an arithmetic fact repeated four times. Revenue rose while shipments fell in 2025, and again in the first half of 2026 — down 285 cars, up 6% in revenue.4 Ferrari raised its 2026 guidance in July for one stated reason: stronger personalisations than initially expected.5 Personalisation is the purest form of price: the same car, more money, no additional unit.

What the market is being asked to pay 38 times earnings for is that this continues through a powertrain transition Ferrari has already de-risked once by cutting its own electric target. That is a real risk and it is the subject of the first threat page. It is worth being precise that the thing being tested is the engine, not the model — the waiting list, the allocation system and the brand line have never depended on what is under the bonnet.

References
  1. Moat Explorer calcSponsorship, commercial and brand revenue — Formula 1 money, lifestyle, merchandising, licensing and royalties — was €820 million in 2025, up 22.4%, against cars and spare parts at €6,005 million up 4.8%. That line has gone from €572 million to €820 million in two years while shipments went nowhere.
    Ferrari N.V., Form 20-F FY2025 — Item 5, Operating and Financial Review. Total shipments of 13,640 cars against 13,752 in 2024 and 13,663 in 2023; shipment figures exclude strictly limited racing cars such as those in the XX Programme and the 499P Modificata, as well as one-off, pre-owned and other special sales. Net revenues of EUR7,146M, up 7.0%. Net revenues from cars and spare parts were EUR6,005M, an increase of EUR277M or 4.8% on EUR5,728M in 2024 and EUR5,119M in 2023, attributed primarily to a richer product and country mix as well as a higher contribution from personalization, more than offsetting the lower contribution from the Daytona SP3 whose limited series deliveries concluded in the third quarter of 2025; foreign currency effects including hedging were negative. Sponsorship, commercial and brand revenues were EUR820M, up 22.4% from EUR670M and EUR572M in the two prior years, comprising sponsorship of Scuderia Ferrari, Ferrari share of the Formula 1 World Championship commercial revenues distributed to teams, and lifestyle, merchandising, licensing and royalty income; other net revenues were EUR321M, up EUR42M. Selling, general and administrative costs were EUR642M in 2025, an increase of EUR81M or 14.5% on EUR561M, and 9.0% of net revenues against 8.4%, attributed primarily to racing expenses and brand investments as well as organizational development. Net revenues by year run EUR3,105M (2016), EUR3,417M, EUR3,420M, EUR3,766M, EUR3,460M (2020), EUR4,271M, EUR5,095M, EUR5,970M, EUR6,677M and EUR7,146M (2025). — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcTotal assets are €9,628 million against a market value near €63 billion, and €1,613 million of those assets are a captive financing book that has nothing to do with making cars. Return on invested capital was about 30.7% in 2025 against a cost of capital nearer 8% — and that is the conservative reading, taking equity plus debt less cash; strip out the financing receivables and it is materially...
    Ferrari N.V. (NYSE: RACE) market data — share price about $414, market capitalisation about EUR62.9 billion (about $73 billion) on approximately 177.0 million shares outstanding net of treasury; trailing price/earnings about 38.4 and price/sales about 8.55, on trailing twelve-month revenue of EUR7,353M and net profit of EUR1,639M; dividend yield about 1.0%; 52-week range $312.51 to $504.49, leaving the shares about 18% below the high. The euro/dollar rate used is 1.1652. — August 2026 · publ. 2026-08-28 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcReturn on invested capital was about 30.7% in 2025 against a cost of capital nearer 8% — and that is the conservative reading, taking equity plus debt less cash; strip out the financing receivables and it is materially higher. Ferrari is a brand that happens to own a factory, and the balance sheet says so.
    Ferrari N.V., Form 20-F FY2025 — consolidated income statement and statement of financial position. Net revenues EUR7,146M; cost of sales EUR3,453M (48.3% of revenue); selling, general and administrative costs EUR642M (9.0%); research and development costs EUR919M (12.9%); EBIT EUR2,110M, a 29.5% margin; EBITDA EUR2,772M, 38.8%; profit before taxes EUR2,064M; income tax expense EUR464M, an effective rate of 22.5%; net profit EUR1,600M, 22.4% of revenue, against EUR1,526M and EUR1,257M in the two prior years. Diluted earnings per share EUR8.96 against EUR8.46 and EUR6.90, on weighted average diluted shares of 178,321 thousand against 179,992 thousand and 181,511 thousand. Total assets EUR9,628M; property, plant and equipment EUR2,058M; intangible assets EUR1,638M including goodwill of EUR785M; inventories EUR1,114M; receivables from financing activities EUR1,613M; cash and cash equivalents EUR1,468M; total equity EUR3,915M; debt EUR2,884M; trade payables EUR841M. In 2025 Ferrari paid dividends of EUR534M and repurchased EUR785M of its own shares. Historic net revenues run EUR3,105M (2016), EUR3,417M, EUR3,420M, EUR3,766M, EUR3,460M (2020), EUR4,271M, EUR5,095M, EUR5,970M, EUR6,677M and EUR7,146M (2025); net profit over the same years runs EUR400M, EUR537M, EUR787M, EUR699M, EUR609M, EUR833M, EUR939M, EUR1,257M, EUR1,526M and EUR1,600M. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02 · source ↗
  4. ReportedRevenue rose while shipments fell in 2025, and again in the first half of 2026 — down 285 cars, up 6% in revenue. Ferrari raised its 2026 guidance in July for one stated reason: stronger personalisations than initially expected.
    Ferrari N.V., second-quarter 2026 results press release (filed with the SEC as an exhibit to Form 6-K). Net revenues of EUR1,938M, up 8% and up 11% at constant currency; EBIT of EUR605M at a 31.2% margin, up 10% and up 16% at constant currency; EBITDA of EUR755M at a 39.0% margin; net profit of EUR463M; diluted earnings per share of EUR2.62; industrial free cash flow of EUR276M, up 39%. For the first half, net revenues of EUR3,786M (up 6%), EBIT of EUR1,153M at a 30.5% margin, net profit of EUR876M, diluted EPS of EUR4.95 and industrial free cash flow of EUR929M (up 14%). Second-quarter shipments totalled 3,366 cars against 3,494, with EMEA up 210 to 1,856, the Americas down 206 to 787, Greater China down 89 to 185 and the rest of Asia-Pacific down 43 to 538; first-half shipments were 6,802 against 7,087, with EMEA 3,314 (down 33), the Americas 1,817 (down 198), Greater China 440 (down 71) and the rest of Asia-Pacific 1,231 (up 17). Results were attributed to personalisations and mix, with deliveries of the 12Cilindri, 12Cilindri Spider, Purosangue and 296 Speciale families rising while the 296 GTS, Roma Spider and SF90 XX families phased out and the Amalfi and 849 Testarossa ramped; racing revenue rose on sponsorship and on the supply of power units to other Formula 1 teams. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to net revenues of about EUR7.60bn from about EUR7.50bn, adjusted EBITDA of at least EUR2.97bn (at least 39.0% of revenue), adjusted EBIT of at least EUR2.26bn (at least 29.5%), adjusted diluted EPS of at least EUR9.68 and industrial free cash flow of at least EUR1.55bn, on stronger personalizations than initially expected and lower than anticipated currency headwinds, net of hedges. Chief executive Benedetto Vigna stated that the order book entirely covers 2027. More than EUR800M was returned during the quarter — a EUR599M dividend instalment and EUR209M of share repurchases — taking the company from net industrial cash of EUR388M at 31 March 2026 to net industrial debt of EUR131M at 30 June 2026. Trailing twelve-month figures to June 2026 are net revenues of EUR7,353M, net profit of EUR1,639M and diluted EPS of EUR9.23. — Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-07 · source ↗
  5. ReportedFerrari raised its 2026 guidance in July for one stated reason: stronger personalisations than initially expected. Personalisation is the purest form of price: the same car, more money, no additional unit.
    Ferrari N.V., second-quarter 2026 results press release (filed with the SEC as an exhibit to Form 6-K). Net revenues of EUR1,938M, up 8% and up 11% at constant currency; EBIT of EUR605M at a 31.2% margin, up 10% and up 16% at constant currency; EBITDA of EUR755M at a 39.0% margin; net profit of EUR463M; diluted earnings per share of EUR2.62; industrial free cash flow of EUR276M, up 39%. For the first half, net revenues of EUR3,786M (up 6%), EBIT of EUR1,153M at a 30.5% margin, net profit of EUR876M, diluted EPS of EUR4.95 and industrial free cash flow of EUR929M (up 14%). Second-quarter shipments totalled 3,366 cars against 3,494, with EMEA up 210 to 1,856, the Americas down 206 to 787, Greater China down 89 to 185 and the rest of Asia-Pacific down 43 to 538; first-half shipments were 6,802 against 7,087, with EMEA 3,314 (down 33), the Americas 1,817 (down 198), Greater China 440 (down 71) and the rest of Asia-Pacific 1,231 (up 17). Results were attributed to personalisations and mix, with deliveries of the 12Cilindri, 12Cilindri Spider, Purosangue and 296 Speciale families rising while the 296 GTS, Roma Spider and SF90 XX families phased out and the Amalfi and 849 Testarossa ramped; racing revenue rose on sponsorship and on the supply of power units to other Formula 1 teams. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to net revenues of about EUR7.60bn from about EUR7.50bn, adjusted EBITDA of at least EUR2.97bn (at least 39.0% of revenue), adjusted EBIT of at least EUR2.26bn (at least 29.5%), adjusted diluted EPS of at least EUR9.68 and industrial free cash flow of at least EUR1.55bn, on stronger personalizations than initially expected and lower than anticipated currency headwinds, net of hedges. Chief executive Benedetto Vigna stated that the order book entirely covers 2027. More than EUR800M was returned during the quarter — a EUR599M dividend instalment and EUR209M of share repurchases — taking the company from net industrial cash of EUR388M at 31 March 2026 to net industrial debt of EUR131M at 30 June 2026. Trailing twelve-month figures to June 2026 are net revenues of EUR7,353M, net profit of EUR1,639M and diluted EPS of EUR9.23. — Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-07 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026