⚠ Flexibility Optimises for NothingModerate threat

Building petrol, hybrid and electric cars on one line is flexibility bought with capital, and the capital is now visible.

The new line is what you build when you do not know the mix, and Ferrari plainly does not — it cut its 2030 electric target from about 40% to about 20% of the line-up on client demand.¹ Flexibility is the correct response to that uncertainty. It is also expensive, and the cost shows up as depreciation against a company whose whole case is that it does not need to spend heavily.

The specific risk is that flexibility optimises for nothing. A line built to accommodate three powertrains is not the cheapest way to build any one of them, and if the mix settles decisively — either back toward combustion or, less likely, toward electric — Ferrari will be carrying capability it does not use.

There is a subtler version. Manufacturing flexibility makes it easy to add derivatives, and adding derivatives is the low-friction path to more shipments. The physical constraint that used to enforce the volume discipline is being engineered away.

Watch capital expenditure and depreciation against EBITDA margin. Ferrari guides to at least 39.0% adjusted EBITDA for 2026; sustained pressure below that while the mix stays uncertain would mean the flexibility is costing more than it is protecting.