✦ Where the Next Twenty Percent Comes FromNarrow moat

Ferrari (RACE) — the future bets

A twenty percent larger client base has to come from somewhere, and the two regions with the most headroom are the two currently shrinking.

The 90,000-client target is Ferrari's growth plan, and it grows the demand side rather than the supply side.1

H1 2026 shipments by region, and the change3,314 (-33)EMEA1,817 (-198)Americas1,231 (+17)Rest of APAC440 (-71)Greater China6,802 against 7,087. New Tailor Made centres opening in Tokyo and Los Angeles.
A 20% larger client base has to come from somewhere, and the two regions with the most headroom are the two currently shrinking.

Roughly 20% more active clients by 2030 than in 2022, against a shipment plan that contemplates only a "measured increase" above current levels.2 The two together mean the ratio of people who want a Ferrari to Ferraris available is designed to widen — which is the same thing as saying the queue gets longer on purpose.

This is why the target is stated in clients rather than cars. Enlarging the base is what makes it safe to raise prices, to allocate selectively, and to launch limited series that sell before they are shown.

The execution question is where the clients come from. Greater China was 440 cars in the first half of 2026, down 71 year on year, and the Americas fell 198 — while EMEA held.3 A base that grows by 20% has to grow somewhere, and the two regions with the most headroom are the two that are currently shrinking.

The new Tailor Made centres in Tokyo and Los Angeles by 2027, alongside the existing ones in Maranello, New York and Shanghai are the visible investment in that.4

Watch the active-client count directly — Ferrari discloses it against the target. If it grows while shipments stay flat, the moat is widening. If it stalls, the four-launches-a-year plan has fewer people to sell to than it assumes.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

Greater China shipments fell 71 in the first half of 2026 and the Americas fell 198, while EMEA held. The two regions with the most headroom for a 20% larger client base are the two currently going backwards.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Greater China shipments
440 in the first half of 2026, down 71

The Americas fell 198 in the same half while EMEA held. A client base that has to grow about 20% by 2030 has to grow somewhere, and the two regions with the most demographic headroom are the two currently going backwards. Ferrari's visible answer is presence — new Tailor Made centres in Tokyo and Los Angeles. Watch these two regional lines: they are where the 90,000-client target is won or missed.

Source: Ferrari Q2 2026 results press release ↗
References
  1. ReportedThe 90,000-client target is Ferrari's growth plan, and it grows the demand side rather than the supply side. Roughly 20% more active clients by 2030 than in 2022, against a shipment plan that contemplates only a "measured increase" above current levels.
    Ferrari N.V., Capital Markets Day 2030 Strategic Plan — business section, filed with the SEC as Exhibit 99.1 to a Form 6-K on 9 October 2025. An average of four new car launches per year is planned between 2026 and 2030. The Ferrari elettrica will be an addition to the range product offering. In 2030 the product line-up will be 40% ICE, 40% hybrid and 20% electric. Ferrari targets 90,000 active clients, a 20% increase compared to 2022. New Tailor Made centers will open in Tokyo and Los Angeles to get closer to clients, and two new flagship stores in London and New York. The audience is described as ranging from 180,000 Ferraristi to more than 400 million tifosi. Strategic electric components are designed, engineered and handcrafted in Maranello. — October 2025 · publ. 2025-10-09 · source ↗
  2. ReportedRoughly 20% more active clients by 2030 than in 2022, against a shipment plan that contemplates only a "measured increase" above current levels. The two together mean the ratio of people who want a Ferrari to Ferraris available is designed to widen — which is the same thing as saying the queue gets longer on purpose.
    Ferrari N.V., Capital Markets Day 2030 Strategic Plan — business section, filed with the SEC as Exhibit 99.1 to a Form 6-K on 9 October 2025. An average of four new car launches per year is planned between 2026 and 2030. The Ferrari elettrica will be an addition to the range product offering. In 2030 the product line-up will be 40% ICE, 40% hybrid and 20% electric. Ferrari targets 90,000 active clients, a 20% increase compared to 2022. New Tailor Made centers will open in Tokyo and Los Angeles to get closer to clients, and two new flagship stores in London and New York. The audience is described as ranging from 180,000 Ferraristi to more than 400 million tifosi. Strategic electric components are designed, engineered and handcrafted in Maranello. — October 2025 · publ. 2025-10-09 · source ↗
  3. ReportedGreater China was 440 cars in the first half of 2026, down 71 year on year, and the Americas fell 198 — while EMEA held. A base that grows by 20% has to grow somewhere, and the two regions with the most headroom are the two that are currently shrinking.
    Ferrari N.V., second-quarter 2026 results press release (filed with the SEC as an exhibit to Form 6-K). Net revenues of EUR1,938M, up 8% and up 11% at constant currency; EBIT of EUR605M at a 31.2% margin, up 10% and up 16% at constant currency; EBITDA of EUR755M at a 39.0% margin; net profit of EUR463M; diluted earnings per share of EUR2.62; industrial free cash flow of EUR276M, up 39%. For the first half, net revenues of EUR3,786M (up 6%), EBIT of EUR1,153M at a 30.5% margin, net profit of EUR876M, diluted EPS of EUR4.95 and industrial free cash flow of EUR929M (up 14%). Second-quarter shipments totalled 3,366 cars against 3,494, with EMEA up 210 to 1,856, the Americas down 206 to 787, Greater China down 89 to 185 and the rest of Asia-Pacific down 43 to 538; first-half shipments were 6,802 against 7,087, with EMEA 3,314 (down 33), the Americas 1,817 (down 198), Greater China 440 (down 71) and the rest of Asia-Pacific 1,231 (up 17). Results were attributed to personalisations and mix, with deliveries of the 12Cilindri, 12Cilindri Spider, Purosangue and 296 Speciale families rising while the 296 GTS, Roma Spider and SF90 XX families phased out and the Amalfi and 849 Testarossa ramped; racing revenue rose on sponsorship and on the supply of power units to other Formula 1 teams. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to net revenues of about EUR7.60bn from about EUR7.50bn, adjusted EBITDA of at least EUR2.97bn (at least 39.0% of revenue), adjusted EBIT of at least EUR2.26bn (at least 29.5%), adjusted diluted EPS of at least EUR9.68 and industrial free cash flow of at least EUR1.55bn, on stronger personalizations than initially expected and lower than anticipated currency headwinds, net of hedges. Chief executive Benedetto Vigna stated that the order book entirely covers 2027. More than EUR800M was returned during the quarter — a EUR599M dividend instalment and EUR209M of share repurchases — taking the company from net industrial cash of EUR388M at 31 March 2026 to net industrial debt of EUR131M at 30 June 2026. Trailing twelve-month figures to June 2026 are net revenues of EUR7,353M, net profit of EUR1,639M and diluted EPS of EUR9.23. — Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-07 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe new Tailor Made centres in Tokyo and Los Angeles by 2027, alongside the existing ones in Maranello, New York and Shanghai are the visible investment in that. Watch the active-client count directly — Ferrari discloses it against the target.
    Ferrari N.V., Capital Markets Day 2030 Strategic Plan — business section, filed with the SEC as Exhibit 99.1 to a Form 6-K on 9 October 2025. An average of four new car launches per year is planned between 2026 and 2030. The Ferrari elettrica will be an addition to the range product offering. In 2030 the product line-up will be 40% ICE, 40% hybrid and 20% electric. Ferrari targets 90,000 active clients, a 20% increase compared to 2022. New Tailor Made centers will open in Tokyo and Los Angeles to get closer to clients, and two new flagship stores in London and New York. The audience is described as ranging from 180,000 Ferraristi to more than 400 million tifosi. Strategic electric components are designed, engineered and handcrafted in Maranello. — October 2025 · publ. 2025-10-09 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026