⚠ A Queue Is a Stock, Not an IncomeModerate threat

Ferrari (RACE) — threat to the moat

A queue is a stock. Deliver against it faster than you replenish it and the moat is being consumed rather than earned.

A queue is a stock, and a company that keeps drawing on it eventually runs it down.

Car shipments by half-year (cars)7,087H1 20256,553H2 20256,802H1 2026Ferrari Q2 2026 release; H2 2025 = 13,640 for the year less 7,087 in H1
Deliveries run at about 6,500 to 7,100 cars a half-year. The order book covering 2027 is a stock drawn down at that rate, and only the rate is published.

Ferrari's own plan says so: the controlled volume strategy "contemplates a measured increase in shipments above current levels as we target a larger customer base and modes of use, we increase our focus on periodically rejuvenating our customer base and creating new Ferrari collectors, and our product portfolio evolves with a broader product range."1 Every one of those clauses means more cars.

The 2030 plan makes it concrete: an average of four new model launches a year between 2026 and 2030, and a target of 90,000 active clients by 2030, a 20% increase on 2022.2 Broadening the range and the client base is how the queue gets longer at the front and shorter at the back.

Ferrari has managed the trade well so far — the Purosangue, a four-door, was the last test of whether the brand could stretch, and it did not visibly damage anything. But each extension is a withdrawal from the same account, and the balance is not disclosed.

The market cannot see the queue. It sees shipments, which are falling, and revenue, which is rising, and infers the rest.

The order book is the only warning signal, and it is reported as a sentence rather than a number.3

References
  1. ReportedFerrari's own plan says so: the controlled volume strategy "contemplates a measured increase in shipments above current levels as we target a larger customer base and modes of use, we increase our focus on periodically rejuvenating our customer base and creating new Ferrari collectors, and our product portfolio evolves with a broader product range." Every one of those clauses means more cars.
    Ferrari N.V., Form 20-F FY2025 — Item 4, sales and distribution, client management and the controlled volume strategy. Ferrari sells in over 60 markets through a network of 181 authorized dealers operating 195 points of sale as of the end of 2025; its largest dealer accounted for approximately 3.0% of shipments in 2025 and its fifteen largest dealers for approximately 25%. As part of supply and demand management, allocations are determined by geography and by dealer based on various metrics including expected developments in the relevant market, the number of cars sold historically by the various dealers, the current order book of dealers and the average waiting time of the end client in the relevant market; an order reporting system allows Ferrari to collect and monitor information regarding end client orders and assists in production planning, allocation and dealer management. Ferrari relentlessly focuses on preserving product exclusivity and nurturing its client community, rewarding loyal clients through driving events and other initiatives and, most importantly, offering its most loyal and active clients preferential access to its newest, most exclusive and highest value cars. Competition among similarly positioned luxury performance cars is driven by price and total cost of ownership, and the filing states that resilience of the car value after a period of ownership is an important competitive dimension because higher resilience decreases the total cost of ownership and promotes repeat purchases, which Ferrari believes is a strong competitive advantage. Its controlled volume strategy contemplates a measured increase in shipments above current levels as it targets a larger customer base and modes of use, increases its focus on periodically rejuvenating its customer base and creating new Ferrari collectors, and its product portfolio evolves with a broader product range. It sold 13,640, 13,752 and 13,663 cars in 2025, 2024 and 2023. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe 2030 plan makes it concrete: an average of four new model launches a year between 2026 and 2030, and a target of 90,000 active clients by 2030, a 20% increase on 2022. Broadening the range and the client base is how the queue gets longer at the front and shorter at the back.
    Ferrari N.V., Capital Markets Day 2030 Strategic Plan — business section, filed with the SEC as Exhibit 99.1 to a Form 6-K on 9 October 2025. An average of four new car launches per year is planned between 2026 and 2030. The Ferrari elettrica will be an addition to the range product offering. In 2030 the product line-up will be 40% ICE, 40% hybrid and 20% electric. Ferrari targets 90,000 active clients, a 20% increase compared to 2022. New Tailor Made centers will open in Tokyo and Los Angeles to get closer to clients, and two new flagship stores in London and New York. The audience is described as ranging from 180,000 Ferraristi to more than 400 million tifosi. Strategic electric components are designed, engineered and handcrafted in Maranello. — October 2025 · publ. 2025-10-09 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe order book is the only warning signal, and it is reported as a sentence rather than a number.
    Ferrari N.V., Form 20-F FY2025 — Item 4, sales and distribution, client management and the controlled volume strategy. Ferrari sells in over 60 markets through a network of 181 authorized dealers operating 195 points of sale as of the end of 2025; its largest dealer accounted for approximately 3.0% of shipments in 2025 and its fifteen largest dealers for approximately 25%. As part of supply and demand management, allocations are determined by geography and by dealer based on various metrics including expected developments in the relevant market, the number of cars sold historically by the various dealers, the current order book of dealers and the average waiting time of the end client in the relevant market; an order reporting system allows Ferrari to collect and monitor information regarding end client orders and assists in production planning, allocation and dealer management. Ferrari relentlessly focuses on preserving product exclusivity and nurturing its client community, rewarding loyal clients through driving events and other initiatives and, most importantly, offering its most loyal and active clients preferential access to its newest, most exclusive and highest value cars. Competition among similarly positioned luxury performance cars is driven by price and total cost of ownership, and the filing states that resilience of the car value after a period of ownership is an important competitive dimension because higher resilience decreases the total cost of ownership and promotes repeat purchases, which Ferrari believes is a strong competitive advantage. Its controlled volume strategy contemplates a measured increase in shipments above current levels as it targets a larger customer base and modes of use, increases its focus on periodically rejuvenating its customer base and creating new Ferrari collectors, and its product portfolio evolves with a broader product range. It sold 13,640, 13,752 and 13,663 cars in 2025, 2024 and 2023. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026