✦ Four Launches a Year to 2030Narrow moat

Ferrari (RACE) — the future bets

Four launches a year is how volume stays flat while revenue rises — and how four Ferraris end up competing for the same client's allocation.

Four new models a year through 2030 is a launch cadence Ferrari has never sustained before, and it is the mechanism by which volume stays flat while revenue rises.1

The cadence, and what pays for it~4new models a year,2026 to 2030€919MR&D in 2025- 12.9% of revenue+7.0% / -0.8%revenue and shipments, 2025A new model resets the queue and prices above what it replaces. H1 2026: +6% on 4.0% fewer cars.
A new model resets the queue and prices above what it replaces. That is how volume falls while revenue rises, twice running.

The logic is simple and it is already working. A new model resets the queue, commands a higher price than what it replaces, and attracts a fresh round of personalisation orders at the point where clients are most willing to spend. Ferrari's revenue grew 7.0% in 2025 on shipments that fell 0.8% — 13,640 cars against 13,752 — which is the entire strategy in one line.2

Sustaining that cadence is an engineering and capital question rather than a demand one. It requires R&D at a level Ferrari already runs — €919 million in 2025, 12.9% of revenue — plus the Maranello capacity to build several derivatives concurrently.3

The risk is dilution of a different kind than the volume risk. A queue is scarce because the cars are; a launch cadence this fast means more distinct cars competing for the same clients' allocations, and a client who is choosing between four Ferraris is spending less time waiting for any one of them.

Watch revenue per car. The plan works if the four-a-year cadence keeps lifting it. If launches accelerate and revenue per car flattens, the cadence has become a substitute for pricing power rather than a source of it.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Four launches a year through 2030 is a faster cadence than Ferrari has sustained before, and the mechanism it feeds — revenue rising on flat volume — has worked in each of the last two reporting periods.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Adjusted diluted EPS guidance, 2026
≥€9.68, raised from ≥€9.45

Ferrari plans about four launches a year, and 2026 is a heavy changeover year. Earnings guidance rising through it shows the new models adding value as they ramp.

Source: Ferrari Q2 2026 results ↗
References
  1. ReportedFour new models a year through 2030 is a launch cadence Ferrari has never sustained before, and it is the mechanism by which volume stays flat while revenue rises. The logic is simple and it is already working.
    Ferrari N.V., Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025 (SEC, CIK 1648416) — Item 4, Information on the Company. Ferrari sells in over 60 markets worldwide through a network of 181 authorized dealers operating 195 points of sale as of the end of 2025; the largest dealer accounted for approximately 3.0% of shipments and the fifteen largest for approximately 25%. Allocations are determined by geography and dealer on metrics including expected developments in the relevant market, the number of cars sold historically by the various dealers, dealers current order books and the average waiting time of the end client in the relevant market; an order reporting system collects and monitors end-client orders and assists in production planning, allocation and dealer management. Ferrari rewards loyal clients through driving events and other initiatives and, most importantly, offers its most loyal and active clients preferential access to its newest, most exclusive and highest value cars. It states that resilience of the car value after a period of ownership is an important competitive dimension because higher resilience decreases the total cost of ownership and promotes repeat purchases, which it believes is a strong competitive advantage. The company intends to continue pursuing its controlled volume and growth strategy in line with the business plan announced at its October 2025 Capital Markets Day and plans to launch an average of four new models per year over 2026 to 2030. Six new models were launched in 2025 — the 296 Speciale, 296 Speciale A, Amalfi, 849 Testarossa, 849 Testarossa Spider and the Ferrari Luce, its first full electric model. The first reveal phase of the Ferrari Luce took place in October 2025 with the presentation of its key technical components and product development strategy, followed in February 2026 by the unveiling of the interior design and the announcement of the model name; the current product portfolio includes cars presented in 2025 for which shipments will commence in future years. The portfolio comprises nine Range models, four Special Series models and one Supercar, the F80. Scuderia Ferrari is described as the most successful team in the sport history, having claimed 16 Constructors and 15 Drivers world titles since the inaugural World Championship in 1950, and Ferrari won the 24 Hours of Le Mans in 2023, 2024 and 2025. Personalization runs from the Atelier through the Tailor Made program, whose dedicated designers guide clients through exclusive materials, and the One-Off program; existing Tailor Made centers are in Maranello, New York and Shanghai, with new centers announced for Tokyo and Los Angeles by 2027. All production takes place in Maranello, Italy, where the e-Building, inaugurated in 2024, is used to produce and develop models with internal combustion, hybrid and full electric powertrains as well as strategic electrical components including high-voltage battery packs, e-axles, inverters and electric engines; construction of a new paint shop began in 2024, which will allow Ferrari to satisfy further personalizations in-house. The company had 5,718 employees. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02 · source ↗
  2. ReportedFerrari's revenue grew 7.0% in 2025 on shipments that fell 0.8% — 13,640 cars against 13,752 — which is the entire strategy in one line. Sustaining that cadence is an engineering and capital question rather than a demand one.
    Ferrari N.V., Form 20-F FY2025 — Item 5, Operating and Financial Review. Total shipments of 13,640 cars against 13,752 in 2024 and 13,663 in 2023; shipment figures exclude strictly limited racing cars such as those in the XX Programme and the 499P Modificata, as well as one-off, pre-owned and other special sales. Net revenues of EUR7,146M, up 7.0%. Net revenues from cars and spare parts were EUR6,005M, an increase of EUR277M or 4.8% on EUR5,728M in 2024 and EUR5,119M in 2023, attributed primarily to a richer product and country mix as well as a higher contribution from personalization, more than offsetting the lower contribution from the Daytona SP3 whose limited series deliveries concluded in the third quarter of 2025; foreign currency effects including hedging were negative. Sponsorship, commercial and brand revenues were EUR820M, up 22.4% from EUR670M and EUR572M in the two prior years, comprising sponsorship of Scuderia Ferrari, Ferrari share of the Formula 1 World Championship commercial revenues distributed to teams, and lifestyle, merchandising, licensing and royalty income; other net revenues were EUR321M, up EUR42M. Selling, general and administrative costs were EUR642M in 2025, an increase of EUR81M or 14.5% on EUR561M, and 9.0% of net revenues against 8.4%, attributed primarily to racing expenses and brand investments as well as organizational development. Net revenues by year run EUR3,105M (2016), EUR3,417M, EUR3,420M, EUR3,766M, EUR3,460M (2020), EUR4,271M, EUR5,095M, EUR5,970M, EUR6,677M and EUR7,146M (2025). — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIt requires R&D at a level Ferrari already runs — €919 million in 2025, 12.9% of revenue — plus the Maranello capacity to build several derivatives concurrently. The risk is dilution of a different kind than the volume risk.
    Ferrari N.V., Form 20-F FY2025 — consolidated income statement and statement of financial position. Net revenues EUR7,146M; cost of sales EUR3,453M (48.3% of revenue); selling, general and administrative costs EUR642M (9.0%); research and development costs EUR919M (12.9%); EBIT EUR2,110M, a 29.5% margin; EBITDA EUR2,772M, 38.8%; profit before taxes EUR2,064M; income tax expense EUR464M, an effective rate of 22.5%; net profit EUR1,600M, 22.4% of revenue, against EUR1,526M and EUR1,257M in the two prior years. Diluted earnings per share EUR8.96 against EUR8.46 and EUR6.90, on weighted average diluted shares of 178,321 thousand against 179,992 thousand and 181,511 thousand. Total assets EUR9,628M; property, plant and equipment EUR2,058M; intangible assets EUR1,638M including goodwill of EUR785M; inventories EUR1,114M; receivables from financing activities EUR1,613M; cash and cash equivalents EUR1,468M; total equity EUR3,915M; debt EUR2,884M; trade payables EUR841M. In 2025 Ferrari paid dividends of EUR534M and repurchased EUR785M of its own shares. Historic net revenues run EUR3,105M (2016), EUR3,417M, EUR3,420M, EUR3,766M, EUR3,460M (2020), EUR4,271M, EUR5,095M, EUR5,970M, EUR6,677M and EUR7,146M (2025); net profit over the same years runs EUR400M, EUR537M, EUR787M, EUR699M, EUR609M, EUR833M, EUR939M, EUR1,257M, EUR1,526M and EUR1,600M. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026