⚠ The Strategy Has Never Chosen in a DownturnModerate threat

Ferrari (RACE) — threat to the moat

Ferrari has never had to choose between volume and price under real pressure, which means the discipline is untested rather than proven.

Ferrari has never been through a real luxury downturn as a public company, and the strategy has never had to choose.

The choice Ferrari has never had to makeIf demand softens - option AHold price, deliver fewer carsCost of ARevenue and earnings fall immediatelyIf demand softens - option BHold volume, ease allocationCost of BResiduals, then the queue, then the moatClosest test so far2020: a closed factory, not a lost order bookRevenue fell 8.1% in 2020 and recovered to a record within two years.
Every argument for Ferrari assumes it would choose price. It has been a public company for a decade and has never had to.

The listing was October 2015. Since then the worst year was 2020, when Ferrari closed Maranello for weeks and revenue fell about 8% before recovering immediately.1 That was a supply shock, not a demand one — precisely the kind of interruption a company with a multi-year order book absorbs best.

What has not happened is a period in which wealthy buyers stopped wanting the product. The controlled volume strategy is easy to hold when the queue is long; the test is a year when it is short and the choice is between protecting exclusivity and protecting the quarter. Ferrari would face that decision with a public shareholder base for the first time.

There are early signals worth watching in the current numbers rather than the next crisis. Shipments fell in the Americas by 198 cars in the first half of 2026 and in Greater China by 71, with only EMEA growing.2 Revenue still rose, because mix and personalisation covered it — which is the strategy working, and also the mechanism being asked to do more.

The reassurance is the ownership structure: two holders with 48.5% of the votes and a multi-decade horizon.3

Watch whether shipments and revenue ever fall together.

References
  1. ReportedSince then the worst year was 2020, when Ferrari closed Maranello for weeks and revenue fell about 8% before recovering immediately. That was a supply shock, not a demand one — precisely the kind of interruption a company with a multi-year order book absorbs best.
    Ferrari N.V., Form 20-F FY2025 — Item 4, sales and distribution, client management and the controlled volume strategy. Ferrari sells in over 60 markets through a network of 181 authorized dealers operating 195 points of sale as of the end of 2025; its largest dealer accounted for approximately 3.0% of shipments in 2025 and its fifteen largest dealers for approximately 25%. As part of supply and demand management, allocations are determined by geography and by dealer based on various metrics including expected developments in the relevant market, the number of cars sold historically by the various dealers, the current order book of dealers and the average waiting time of the end client in the relevant market; an order reporting system allows Ferrari to collect and monitor information regarding end client orders and assists in production planning, allocation and dealer management. Ferrari relentlessly focuses on preserving product exclusivity and nurturing its client community, rewarding loyal clients through driving events and other initiatives and, most importantly, offering its most loyal and active clients preferential access to its newest, most exclusive and highest value cars. Competition among similarly positioned luxury performance cars is driven by price and total cost of ownership, and the filing states that resilience of the car value after a period of ownership is an important competitive dimension because higher resilience decreases the total cost of ownership and promotes repeat purchases, which Ferrari believes is a strong competitive advantage. Its controlled volume strategy contemplates a measured increase in shipments above current levels as it targets a larger customer base and modes of use, increases its focus on periodically rejuvenating its customer base and creating new Ferrari collectors, and its product portfolio evolves with a broader product range. It sold 13,640, 13,752 and 13,663 cars in 2025, 2024 and 2023. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02 · source ↗
  2. ReportedShipments fell in the Americas by 198 cars in the first half of 2026 and in Greater China by 71, with only EMEA growing. Revenue still rose, because mix and personalisation covered it — which is the strategy working, and also the mechanism being asked to do more.
    Ferrari N.V., second-quarter 2026 results press release (filed with the SEC as an exhibit to Form 6-K). Net revenues of EUR1,938M, up 8% and up 11% at constant currency; EBIT of EUR605M at a 31.2% margin, up 10% and up 16% at constant currency; EBITDA of EUR755M at a 39.0% margin; net profit of EUR463M; diluted earnings per share of EUR2.62; industrial free cash flow of EUR276M, up 39%. For the first half, net revenues of EUR3,786M (up 6%), EBIT of EUR1,153M at a 30.5% margin, net profit of EUR876M, diluted EPS of EUR4.95 and industrial free cash flow of EUR929M (up 14%). Second-quarter shipments totalled 3,366 cars against 3,494, with EMEA up 210 to 1,856, the Americas down 206 to 787, Greater China down 89 to 185 and the rest of Asia-Pacific down 43 to 538; first-half shipments were 6,802 against 7,087, with EMEA 3,314 (down 33), the Americas 1,817 (down 198), Greater China 440 (down 71) and the rest of Asia-Pacific 1,231 (up 17). Results were attributed to personalisations and mix, with deliveries of the 12Cilindri, 12Cilindri Spider, Purosangue and 296 Speciale families rising while the 296 GTS, Roma Spider and SF90 XX families phased out and the Amalfi and 849 Testarossa ramped; racing revenue rose on sponsorship and on the supply of power units to other Formula 1 teams. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to net revenues of about EUR7.60bn from about EUR7.50bn, adjusted EBITDA of at least EUR2.97bn (at least 39.0% of revenue), adjusted EBIT of at least EUR2.26bn (at least 29.5%), adjusted diluted EPS of at least EUR9.68 and industrial free cash flow of at least EUR1.55bn, on stronger personalizations than initially expected and lower than anticipated currency headwinds, net of hedges. Chief executive Benedetto Vigna stated that the order book entirely covers 2027. More than EUR800M was returned during the quarter — a EUR599M dividend instalment and EUR209M of share repurchases — taking the company from net industrial cash of EUR388M at 31 March 2026 to net industrial debt of EUR131M at 30 June 2026. Trailing twelve-month figures to June 2026 are net revenues of EUR7,353M, net profit of EUR1,639M and diluted EPS of EUR9.23. — Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-07 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe reassurance is the ownership structure: two holders with 48.5% of the votes and a multi-decade horizon. Watch whether shipments and revenue ever fall together.
    Ferrari N.V., Form 20-F FY2025 — Item 6, Directors, Senior Management and Employees, and Item 7, Major Shareholders. As of February 2026 Exor N.V. held approximately 21.33% of the outstanding common shares and 32.32% of the voting power, and Trust Piero Ferrari held approximately 10.67% of shares and 16.17% of the voting power — together about 32.00% of the equity and 48.49% of the votes, against 64.20% of shares and 48.13% of the votes held by all other shareholders. BlackRock held 6,734,854 shares, 3.80% of shares and 3.38% of the votes. The disparity arises from the loyalty voting programme, under which shareholders who register and hold their shares continuously for three years receive special voting shares. The filing states that the interests of its largest shareholders may differ from those of other shareholders and that the loyalty voting programme may reduce the liquidity of the common shares and adversely affect their trading price. Matters put to a shareholder vote include the annual accounts, dividends, the election and removal of directors, capital increases and amendments to the articles of association. The board comprises John Elkann as Executive Chairman — who is also chief executive of Exor — Benedetto Vigna as Chief Executive Officer, Piero Ferrari as Vice Chairman, and directors including Delphine Arnault of Christian Dior Couture, Francesca Bellettini of Saint Laurent and Eddy Cue of Apple. — February 2026 · publ. 2026-02 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026