✦ The Future BetsNarrow moat

Ferrari (RACE) — the future bets

One genuinely new product and three arguments about growing without building more cars.

Ferrari's plan to 2030 has one genuinely new product in it and three arguments about how to grow without building more cars.

One genuinely new product and three arguments about growing without building more cars. The electric share was cut in half.

The company laid it out at its Capital Markets Day in October 2025: a line-up that by 2030 is 40% internal combustion, 40% hybrid and 20% electric — a target cut in half from the 40% electric of the 2022 plan — with an average of four new launches a year through the period, against 2030 revenue of about €9.0 billion and EBIT of at least €2.75 billion at a margin of at least 30%.¹ The market did not take it well: the shares fell as much as 16.18% on the day, their steepest drop since the 2016 listing, erasing about €13.5 billion of value.²

The halving is the most informative number in the plan. Ferrari built an electric car, showed it, and then told the market fewer clients want one than it had assumed. That is either commendable honesty or an admission that its most valuable asset is tied to an engine note, and the answer arrives with the car itself — shown as the Ferrari elettrica in October 2025 and named the Ferrari Luce in February 2026, on a three-phase launch that is not yet complete.³

The other three bets are about the shape of the business rather than the product. 90,000 active clients by 2030 grows the queue rather than the output.⁴ Personalisation keeps raising revenue per car — it is already why 2026 guidance was raised twice.⁵ And the brand business grew 22.4% last year against the car business's 4.8%, which is the only line here that scales without touching the volume discipline.⁶

Rated narrow, trajectory stable. Every one of these bets is an extension of what already works, which limits both the upside and the risk — except the Luce, which is the first thing Ferrari has built that could genuinely change what the badge means.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Three of the four bets are extensions of what already works and are proceeding roughly to plan. The fourth, the electric car, has already had its target halved — so the plan as a whole is neither improving nor deteriorating, it is waiting for one product.

The number that tests this moat

Reported

Capital expenditures, first half

€489M in H1 2026, from €463M

The future bets need capacity and tooling; capex running far ahead of the ~€4.7bn five-year plan would squeeze the cash promised to shareholders.

Source: Ferrari N.V., second-quarter 2026 results press release (SEC 6-K exhibit) ↗

✦ Future bets — beyond today's moat

✦ FUTURE BET 01

The Ferrari Luce

The Ferrari Luce is the first Ferrari whose success would prove something the company has never had to prove.

✦ FUTURE BET 02

Four Launches a Year to 2030

Four launches a year is how volume stays flat while revenue rises — and how four Ferraris end up competing for the same client's allocation.

✦ FUTURE BET 03

Where the Next Twenty Percent Comes From

A twenty percent larger client base has to come from somewhere, and the two regions with the most headroom are the two currently shrinking.

✦ FUTURE BET 04

The Brand Business, Growing at Twenty-Two Percent

The fastest-growing part of Ferrari is the part that does not require building a car — which is the appeal and the danger in one sentence.

References

ReportedThe company laid it out at its Capital Markets Day in October 2025: a line-up that by 2030 is 40% internal combustion, 40% hybrid and 20% electric — a target cut in half from the 40% electric of the 2022 plan — with an average of four new launches a year through the period, against 2030 revenue of about €9.0 billion and EBIT of at least €2.75 billion at a margin of at least 30%. The market did...
Reporting on the market reaction to Ferrari Capital Markets Day, 9 October 2025. Ferrari cut its 2030 fully electric target to 20% of production, from 40% in its 2022 plan, with hybrids and combustion models each accounting for 40%. The shares fell as much as 16.18% to EUR350.80, their steepest drop since the company listed in Milan in 2016, erasing about EUR13.5 billion of market value, as investors reacted to lower-than-expected financial targets and the reduced electric-vehicle plan. — October 2025 · publ. 2025-10-09 · source ↗
ReportedThe market did not take it well: the shares fell as much as 16.18% on the day, their steepest drop since the 2016 listing, erasing about €13.5 billion of value. The halving is the most informative number in the plan.
Reporting on the market reaction to Ferrari Capital Markets Day, 9 October 2025. Ferrari cut its 2030 fully electric target to 20% of production, from 40% in its 2022 plan, with hybrids and combustion models each accounting for 40%. The shares fell as much as 16.18% to EUR350.80, their steepest drop since the company listed in Milan in 2016, erasing about EUR13.5 billion of market value, as investors reacted to lower-than-expected financial targets and the reduced electric-vehicle plan. — October 2025 · publ. 2025-10-09 · source ↗
ReportedThat is either commendable honesty or an admission that its most valuable asset is tied to an engine note, and the answer arrives with the car itself — shown as the Ferrari elettrica in October 2025 and named the Ferrari Luce in February 2026, on a three-phase launch that is not yet complete. The other three bets are about the shape of the business rather than the product.
Ferrari N.V., Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025 (SEC, CIK 1648416) — Item 4, Information on the Company. Ferrari sells in over 60 markets worldwide through a network of 181 authorized dealers operating 195 points of sale as of the end of 2025; the largest dealer accounted for approximately 3.0% of shipments and the fifteen largest for approximately 25%. Allocations are determined by geography and dealer on metrics including expected developments in the relevant market, the number of cars sold historically by the various dealers, dealers current order books and the average waiting time of the end client in the relevant market; an order reporting system collects and monitors end-client orders and assists in production planning, allocation and dealer management. Ferrari rewards loyal clients through driving events and other initiatives and, most importantly, offers its most loyal and active clients preferential access to its newest, most exclusive and highest value cars. It states that resilience of the car value after a period of ownership is an important competitive dimension because higher resilience decreases the total cost of ownership and promotes repeat purchases, which it believes is a strong competitive advantage. The company intends to continue pursuing its controlled volume and growth strategy in line with the business plan announced at its October 2025 Capital Markets Day and plans to launch an average of four new models per year over 2026 to 2030. Six new models were launched in 2025 — the 296 Speciale, 296 Speciale A, Amalfi, 849 Testarossa, 849 Testarossa Spider and the Ferrari Luce, its first full electric model. The first reveal phase of the Ferrari Luce took place in October 2025 with the presentation of its key technical components and product development strategy, followed in February 2026 by the unveiling of the interior design and the announcement of the model name; the current product portfolio includes cars presented in 2025 for which shipments will commence in future years. The portfolio comprises nine Range models, four Special Series models and one Supercar, the F80. Scuderia Ferrari is described as the most successful team in the sport history, having claimed 16 Constructors and 15 Drivers world titles since the inaugural World Championship in 1950, and Ferrari won the 24 Hours of Le Mans in 2023, 2024 and 2025. Personalization runs from the Atelier through the Tailor Made program, whose dedicated designers guide clients through exclusive materials, and the One-Off program; existing Tailor Made centers are in Maranello, New York and Shanghai, with new centers announced for Tokyo and Los Angeles by 2027. All production takes place in Maranello, Italy, where the e-Building, inaugurated in 2024, is used to produce and develop models with internal combustion, hybrid and full electric powertrains as well as strategic electrical components including high-voltage battery packs, e-axles, inverters and electric engines; construction of a new paint shop began in 2024, which will allow Ferrari to satisfy further personalizations in-house. The company had 5,718 employees. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02 · source ↗
Reported90,000 active clients by 2030 grows the queue rather than the output. Personalisation keeps raising revenue per car — it is already why 2026 guidance was raised twice.
Ferrari N.V., Capital Markets Day 2030 Strategic Plan — business section, filed with the SEC as Exhibit 99.1 to a Form 6-K on 9 October 2025. An average of four new car launches per year is planned between 2026 and 2030. The Ferrari elettrica will be an addition to the range product offering. In 2030 the product line-up will be 40% ICE, 40% hybrid and 20% electric. Ferrari targets 90,000 active clients, a 20% increase compared to 2022. New Tailor Made centers will open in Tokyo and Los Angeles to get closer to clients, and two new flagship stores in London and New York. The audience is described as ranging from 180,000 Ferraristi to more than 400 million tifosi. Strategic electric components are designed, engineered and handcrafted in Maranello. — October 2025 · publ. 2025-10-09 · source ↗
Moat Explorer calcPersonalisation keeps raising revenue per car — it is already why 2026 guidance was raised twice. And the brand business grew 22.4% last year against the car business's 4.8%, which is the only line here that scales without touching the volume discipline.
Ferrari N.V., second-quarter 2026 results press release (filed with the SEC as an exhibit to Form 6-K). Net revenues of EUR1,938M, up 8% and up 11% at constant currency; EBIT of EUR605M at a 31.2% margin, up 10% and up 16% at constant currency; EBITDA of EUR755M at a 39.0% margin; net profit of EUR463M; diluted earnings per share of EUR2.62; industrial free cash flow of EUR276M, up 39%. For the first half, net revenues of EUR3,786M (up 6%), EBIT of EUR1,153M at a 30.5% margin, net profit of EUR876M, diluted EPS of EUR4.95 and industrial free cash flow of EUR929M (up 14%). Second-quarter shipments totalled 3,366 cars against 3,494, with EMEA up 210 to 1,856, the Americas down 206 to 787, Greater China down 89 to 185 and the rest of Asia-Pacific down 43 to 538; first-half shipments were 6,802 against 7,087, with EMEA 3,314 (down 33), the Americas 1,817 (down 198), Greater China 440 (down 71) and the rest of Asia-Pacific 1,231 (up 17). Results were attributed to personalisations and mix, with deliveries of the 12Cilindri, 12Cilindri Spider, Purosangue and 296 Speciale families rising while the 296 GTS, Roma Spider and SF90 XX families phased out and the Amalfi and 849 Testarossa ramped; racing revenue rose on sponsorship and on the supply of power units to other Formula 1 teams. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to net revenues of about EUR7.60bn from about EUR7.50bn, adjusted EBITDA of at least EUR2.97bn (at least 39.0% of revenue), adjusted EBIT of at least EUR2.26bn (at least 29.5%), adjusted diluted EPS of at least EUR9.68 and industrial free cash flow of at least EUR1.55bn, on stronger personalizations than initially expected and lower than anticipated currency headwinds, net of hedges. Chief executive Benedetto Vigna stated that the order book entirely covers 2027. More than EUR800M was returned during the quarter — a EUR599M dividend instalment and EUR209M of share repurchases — taking the company from net industrial cash of EUR388M at 31 March 2026 to net industrial debt of EUR131M at 30 June 2026. Trailing twelve-month figures to June 2026 are net revenues of EUR7,353M, net profit of EUR1,639M and diluted EPS of EUR9.23. — Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-07 · source ↗
Moat Explorer calcAnd the brand business grew 22.4% last year against the car business's 4.8%, which is the only line here that scales without touching the volume discipline. Rated narrow, trajectory stable.
Ferrari N.V., Form 20-F FY2025 — Item 5, Operating and Financial Review. Total shipments of 13,640 cars against 13,752 in 2024 and 13,663 in 2023; shipment figures exclude strictly limited racing cars such as those in the XX Programme and the 499P Modificata, as well as one-off, pre-owned and other special sales. Net revenues of EUR7,146M, up 7.0%. Net revenues from cars and spare parts were EUR6,005M, an increase of EUR277M or 4.8% on EUR5,728M in 2024 and EUR5,119M in 2023, attributed primarily to a richer product and country mix as well as a higher contribution from personalization, more than offsetting the lower contribution from the Daytona SP3 whose limited series deliveries concluded in the third quarter of 2025; foreign currency effects including hedging were negative. Sponsorship, commercial and brand revenues were EUR820M, up 22.4% from EUR670M and EUR572M in the two prior years, comprising sponsorship of Scuderia Ferrari, Ferrari share of the Formula 1 World Championship commercial revenues distributed to teams, and lifestyle, merchandising, licensing and royalty income; other net revenues were EUR321M, up EUR42M. Selling, general and administrative costs were EUR642M in 2025, an increase of EUR81M or 14.5% on EUR561M, and 9.0% of net revenues against 8.4%, attributed primarily to racing expenses and brand investments as well as organizational development. Net revenues by year run EUR3,105M (2016), EUR3,417M, EUR3,420M, EUR3,766M, EUR3,460M (2020), EUR4,271M, EUR5,095M, EUR5,970M, EUR6,677M and EUR7,146M (2025). — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02 · source ↗

Sources

Generated September 23, 2026