⚠ The Operating Margin Fell 160 Basis PointsModerate threat

Procter & Gamble (PG) — threat to the moat

P&G's operating margin fell 160 basis points in fiscal 2026, and 220 in the final quarter.

For all its productivity, P&G's operating margin fell in fiscal 2026. Operating income was $19,748 million on net sales of $87,032 million, about 22.7%, against $20,451 million on $84,284 million, about 24.3%, the year before12. In the June 2026 quarter the operating margin was 18.6%, down 220 basis points3.

Operating margin (%)24.3%FY202522.7%FY202620.8%Q4 FY202518.6%Q4 FY2026P&G Form 10-K FY2026 and Q4 release; annual margins calculated
Lower for the year and lower still in the quarter.

The fall came from both lines. Gross margin fell 100 basis points and SG&A rose 60 basis points as a share of sales, with marketing up 804.

This is the cost of the strategy P&G chose: reinvest savings into marketing and product to hold share. It is defensible if the share holds, and in fiscal 2026 only 26 of the top 50 category and country combinations held or grew share5.

The overhead line moved the wrong way. Selling, general and administrative costs were $23,922 million, 27.5% of sales, against $22,669 million, 26.9%, a year earlier6. With gross margin down a point, the two together explain the whole fall.

The threat is a second year of the same. If the operating margin falls below 22% in fiscal 2027 with organic growth at the bottom of the 1% to 3% range7, the spending will have bought neither growth nor margin.

References
  1. ReportedOperating income was $19,748 million on net sales of $87,032 million, about 22.7%, against $20,451 million on $84,284 million, about 24.3%, the year before.
    Procter & Gamble Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 30 June 2026) - consolidated statements of earnings, cash flows and financial position, debt and dividends. — FY2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcOperating income was $19,748 million on net sales of $87,032 million, about 22.7%, against $20,451 million on $84,284 million, about 24.3%, the year before.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Procter & Gamble's reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end 30 June). Net debt: FY2026 11,296 + 22,842 - 9,942 = 24,196; 24,196 / 54,311 = 0.45 times equity; 24,196 / 19,556 = 1.24 years of operating cash flow; debt due within one year 11,296 / (11,296 + 22,842) = 33% of debt; FY2025 9,513 + 24,995 - 9,556 = 24,952; FY2024 7,191 + 25,269 - 9,482 = 22,978. Capital spending 4,409 / 87,032 = 5.1% of net sales. Adjusted free cash flow over dividends 15,835 / 10,232 = 1.55 times. Dividends paid over net earnings attributable: 10,232 / 16,046 = 63.8% (FY2026); 9,872 / 15,974 = 61.8% (FY2025); 9,312 / 14,879 = 62.6% (FY2024). Buybacks 5,028 / 11,009 = 45.7% of the FY2021 peak. Peer market values on 25 September 2026 ($bn): 132.99 + 68.60 + 34.19 + 34.18 + 32.74 + 22.86 + 10.13 = 335.69, against P&G 339.64; P&G / Clorox 339.64 / 10.13 = 33.5 times. P/E: 339.64 / 16.046 = 21.2 (now); 394.82 / 14.879 = 26.5 (December 2024 over FY2024). Free cash flow yield 15,835 / 339,640 = 4.7%. Goodwill plus Gillette brand 41,276 + 12,800 = 54,076; 54,076 / 126,521 = 42.7% of total assets. Segments (five reportable, excluding Corporate): FY2026 sales 16,023 + 6,918 + 12,456 + 30,314 + 20,401 = 86,112; net earnings 2,672 + 1,529 + 2,404 + 5,632 + 3,930 = 16,167; FY2025 net earnings 2,715 + 1,577 + 2,440 + 5,848 + 4,013 = 16,593; 16,167 / 16,593 - 1 = -2.6%. Segment net earnings changes FY2026: Beauty 2,672 / 2,715 - 1 = -1.6%; Grooming 1,529 / 1,577 - 1 = -3.0%; Health Care 2,404 / 2,440 - 1 = -1.5%; Fabric & Home Care 5,632 / 5,848 - 1 = -3.7%; Baby, Feminine & Family Care 3,930 / 4,013 - 1 = -2.1%. Fabric & Home Care share of segment net earnings 5,632 / 16,167 = 34.8%. Pre-tax margins FY2026: Beauty 3,473 / 16,023 = 21.7%; Grooming 1,966 / 6,918 = 28.4%; Health Care 3,163 / 12,456 = 25.4%; Fabric & Home Care 7,290 / 30,314 = 24.0%; Baby, Feminine & Family Care 5,145 / 20,401 = 25.2%. Net margins FY2023: Beauty 3,178 / 15,008 = 21.2%; Health Care 2,125 / 11,226 = 18.9%; Fabric & Home Care 4,828 / 28,371 = 17.0%; Baby, Feminine & Family Care 3,545 / 20,217 = 17.5%. Three-year growth FY2023-FY2026: Health Care sales 12,456 / 11,226 - 1 = 11.0%; Health Care net earnings 2,404 / 2,125 - 1 = 13.1%; Grooming sales 6,918 / 6,419 - 1 = 7.8%; Baby, Feminine & Family Care sales 20,401 / 20,217 - 1 = 0.9%. Segment capital spending over sales FY2026: Grooming 540 / 6,918 = 7.8%; Baby, Feminine & Family Care 1,520 / 20,401 = 7.5%; Health Care 592 / 12,456 = 4.8%; Fabric & Home Care 1,250 / 30,314 = 4.1%; Beauty 415 / 16,023 = 2.6%. Geography FY2026 ($bn): international 45.3 / 87.0 = 52.1%; United States 41.7 / 87.0 = 47.9%. Walmart about 16% x 87,032 = 13,925, about $13.9 billion. Top ten customers less Walmart (rounded percentages): FY2017 35 - 16 = 19; FY2020 38 - 15 = 23; FY2023 40 - 15 = 25; FY2026 43 - 16 = 27. Dividend per share 4.2589 / 4.0763 - 1 = 4.5% (FY2026); 4.0763 / 3.8286 - 1 = 6.5% (FY2025). Market exit charges after tax 1,200 + 131 = 1,331. P&G / Unilever market value 339.64 / 132.99 = 2.6 times. Restructuring charges FY2024-FY2026 659 + 1,114 + 1,230 = 3,003. Gillette write-downs 8.3 + 1.3 = 9.6 billion. Operating margin 19,748 / 87,032 = 22.7% (FY2026); 20,451 / 84,284 = 24.3% (FY2025) - growth rates, margins and charges. — FY2015-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Procter & Gamble's Forms 10-K, results releases, earnings slides and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  3. ReportedIn the June 2026 quarter the operating margin was 18.6%, down 220 basis points.
    Procter & Gamble fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with fiscal 2027 guidance - quarterly and fiscal-year headline results and cash flow. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedGross margin fell 100 basis points and SG&A rose 60 basis points as a share of sales, with marketing up 80.
    Procter & Gamble Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 30 June 2026) - Item 7 MD&A and segment note: segment contents, operating segments and shares of net sales and net earnings. — FY2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIt is defensible if the share holds, and in fiscal 2026 only 26 of the top 50 category and country combinations held or grew share.
    Procter & Gamble fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings slides, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - organic sales and core EPS history, share results and fiscal 2027 guidance assumptions. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedSelling, general and administrative costs were $23,922 million, 27.5% of sales, against $22,669 million, 26.9%, a year earlier.
    Procter & Gamble Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 30 June 2026) - consolidated statements of earnings, cash flows and financial position, debt and dividends. — FY2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIf the operating margin falls below 22% in fiscal 2027 with organic growth at the bottom of the 1% to 3% range, the spending will have bought neither growth nor margin.
    Procter & Gamble fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with fiscal 2027 guidance - fiscal 2027 guidance. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 26, 2026