⚠ Tariff Changes Sit Outside the GuidanceLow threat

Procter & Gamble (PG) — threat to the moat

P&G's fiscal 2027 guidance assumes no significant tariff changes, a year after its tariff estimate halved within six months.

P&G's fiscal 2027 guidance lists what it does not include, and tariffs are on the list. The earnings slides exclude significant market deceleration, currency weakness, commodity spikes, geopolitical disruptions and "Significant tariff changes"1.

FY2027 per-share headwinds guided ($)0.56Total guided+0.11Core EPS midpoint growthP&G Q4 FY2026 release; core EPS midpoint $7.00 vs $6.89
Headwinds five times the expected growth.

That matters because the fiscal 2026 experience showed how large the swings can be: the tariff estimate went from about $800 million after tax in July 20252 to about $400 million in January 20263, a $400 million change inside one fiscal year on a company that earned $16,046 million4.

P&G already expects a headwind of $0.56 a share in fiscal 2027 from commodities, interest, lower non-operating income and currency, an 8% drag5. A tariff increase would come on top.

The guidance itself allows for little. P&G expects diluted EPS growth of 1% to 5%, including 13 to 17 cents a share of non-core restructuring costs6, and core EPS growth of 0% to 3%7. A tariff shock of even a few hundred million dollars would move the result to the bottom of that range or below it.

The threat is modest but real. A new tariff round of the size first guided in 2025 would take several percentage points off earnings per share in a year when core EPS guidance is 0% to 3%8; watch for any revision to the tariff assumption in the October 2026 results.

References
  1. ReportedThe earnings slides exclude significant market deceleration, currency weakness, commodity spikes, geopolitical disruptions and "Significant tariff changes".
    Procter & Gamble fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings slides, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - organic sales and core EPS history, share results and fiscal 2027 guidance assumptions. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThat matters because the fiscal 2026 experience showed how large the swings can be: the tariff estimate went from about $800 million after tax in July 2025 to about $400 million in January 2026, a $400 million change inside one fiscal year on a company that earned $16,046 million.
    Procter & Gamble fourth-quarter and fiscal 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with fiscal 2026 guidance including about $1 billion of tariff costs. — Q4 FY2025 · publ. 29 July 2025 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThat matters because the fiscal 2026 experience showed how large the swings can be: the tariff estimate went from about $800 million after tax in July 2025 to about $400 million in January 2026, a $400 million change inside one fiscal year on a company that earned $16,046 million.
    Procter & Gamble second-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with the revised tariff estimate. — Q2 FY2026 · publ. 22 January 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThat matters because the fiscal 2026 experience showed how large the swings can be: the tariff estimate went from about $800 million after tax in July 2025 to about $400 million in January 2026, a $400 million change inside one fiscal year on a company that earned $16,046 million.
    Procter & Gamble Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 30 June 2026) - consolidated statements of earnings, cash flows and financial position, debt and dividends. — FY2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedP&G already expects a headwind of $0.56 a share in fiscal 2027 from commodities, interest, lower non-operating income and currency, an 8% drag.
    Procter & Gamble fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with fiscal 2027 guidance - fiscal 2027 guidance. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedP&G expects diluted EPS growth of 1% to 5%, including 13 to 17 cents a share of non-core restructuring costs, and core EPS growth of 0% to 3%.
    Procter & Gamble fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with fiscal 2027 guidance - fiscal 2027 guidance. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedP&G expects diluted EPS growth of 1% to 5%, including 13 to 17 cents a share of non-core restructuring costs, and core EPS growth of 0% to 3%.
    Procter & Gamble fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with fiscal 2027 guidance - fiscal 2027 guidance. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedA new tariff round of the size first guided in 2025 would take several percentage points off earnings per share in a year when core EPS guidance is 0% to 3%; watch for any revision to the tariff assumption in the October 2026 results.
    Procter & Gamble fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with fiscal 2027 guidance - fiscal 2027 guidance. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 26, 2026