⚠ Costs Rose Ten Percent, and 2026 Guides Higher StillHigh threat
Barrick Mining (B) — threat to the moat
AISC of $1,637 an ounce is fine at $3,431 gold and difficult at $2,000 -- and gold spent most of twenty years below $2,000.
Barrick's all-in sustaining cost rose roughly 10 percent in 2025 to $1,637 an ounce. Its guidance for 2026 is $1,760 to $1,950, with cash costs of $1,330 to $1,470 against $1,199 the prior year1. Both ends of that range are above where the company was, and the midpoint implies another double-digit increase.
In a year when gold averaged $3,431 an ounce and set 53 record highs2, none of this hurts. Margin per ounce is enormous whatever the cost line does, which is precisely the problem with judging a miner during a bull market: cost discipline is invisible when the price is doing the work.
The reason it matters is that the price is the one thing Barrick does not control, and the cost is the one thing it does. A producer whose costs rise 10 percent a year is fine at $3,400 gold and is in difficulty at $2,000 — and gold has spent most of the last twenty years below $2,000. The company's cost position is what determines which of those scenarios is survivable.
The comparison that stings is with the peer that just overtook it: Agnico Eagle guided 2026 all-in sustaining costs of $1,400 to $1,550, a full band below Barrick's.
Watch AISC in dollars rather than as a margin. A margin figure at record gold prices tells you about the metal. The cost figure tells you about the company.
- ReportedBarrick's AISC rose 10% to $1,637/oz in 2025 and is guided to $1,760-$1,950 for 2026, against Agnico Eagle's guidance of $1,400-$1,550.Gold-miner peer comparison, 2025 results and 2026 guidance — Newmont led global production with 5.89 million attributable ounces in 2025; Agnico Eagle secured the number two global position with payable gold production of 3.447 million ounces, exceeding Barrick's 3.26 million ounces by nearly 200,000; Barrick's all-in sustaining costs rose 10% year on year to $1,637 per ounce in 2025 and are guided to $1,760-$1,950 for 2026, with cash costs of $1,330-$1,470 against $1,199 in 2025, while Agnico guided 2026 AISC of $1,400-$1,550 per ounce; Agnico trades at a forward twelve-month earnings multiple of about 11.5x, roughly 21.7% above the industry average of 9.48x; AngloGold and Agnico Eagle separated themselves from the pack through superior cost control and jurisdiction management while Barrick struggled with geopolitical friction, notably the dispute with Mali's authorities over the Loulo-Gounkoto complex — FY2025 / 2026 guidance · publ. 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedGold averaged US$3,431.5/oz in 2025, up 44%, and set 53 new all-time highs.World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q4 and Full Year 2025 — total gold demand including OTC exceeded 5,000t for the first time, worth an unprecedented US$555bn (+45%), with the LBMA gold price setting 53 new all-time highs during 2025; the annual average price was US$3,431.5/oz (+44%) and the Q4 average a record US$4,135.2/oz (+55%). Supply: mine production a record 3,671.6t (+1%), net producer hedging -73.6t, recycled gold 1,404.3t (+3%) — described as a relatively muted response to a 67% increase in the US dollar gold price — for total supply of 5,002.3t. Demand: jewellery fabrication 1,638.0t (-19%) and jewellery consumption 1,542.3t (-18%) with jewellery demand value up 18% to a record; bar and coin 1,374.1t (+16%), a 12-year high; ETFs and similar products +801.2t against -2.9t in 2024, the second strongest year on record; central banks and other institutions 863.3t against 1,092.4t, at the upper end of the expected range, historically elevated and geographically widespread but slowed from their recent pace — FY2025 · publ. 2026-01-29 · source ↗