⚠ Copper Is a Different Business, Not a HedgeModerate threat

The copper story is real enough that the company changed its name from Barrick Gold to Barrick Mining in 2025. It should not be confused with diversification in the sense that reduces risk.

Copper and gold are both commodities Barrick will sell at prices set by someone else. Adding a second price-taking business to a price-taking business does not create a moat; it creates two exposures. The two metals do sometimes move differently — copper tracks industrial activity while gold tracks fear and real rates — which genuinely smooths results, and that is worth something. It is not the same as owning a business with pricing power.

The execution risk is more immediate. The Lumwana Super Pit is a roughly $2 billion project lifting throughput from 27 to 52 million tonnes and copper output from about 120,000 to 240,000 tonnes a year, with first copper expected at the end of the first quarter of 2028. Until then it consumes capital that flows through the cost line — part of why 2026 all-in sustaining costs are guided to $1,760 to $1,950 an ounce¹ — and produces nothing. Reko Diq, the larger copper prospect, was slowed in 2026 on security concerns with the review extended and potential capital increases flagged.

The number to watch is copper output against the 2028 schedule and the capital number against the $2 billion estimate. A mine that arrives late and over budget has diversified nothing.