⚠ Discipline Is Hardest to Prove in a BoomModerate threat
Barrick Mining (B) — threat to the moat
Every cost increase through the 2000s had a defensible explanation too, and the resulting cost base is what made 2013 catastrophic.
Cost discipline in mining is a cultural claim, and the only period in which it can be verified is the one in which it is least convenient to maintain — a boom.
The industry's last cycle is the cautionary text. Through the 2000s gold rose almost continuously, costs rose alongside it, everybody explained the increase as inflation and grade and jurisdiction, and the resulting cost base was what made 2013 catastrophic when the price turned. Barrick's $10.4 billion loss that year was the bill for a decade of cost growth that had looked entirely reasonable while gold went up.
The current pattern rhymes. All-in sustaining cost rose about 10 percent in 2025 to $1,637 an ounce, 2026 is guided to $1,760 to $1,950, and cash costs are guided to $1,330 to $1,470 from $1,1991. Each increase has a defensible explanation. So did the last ones.
What is different this time is the balance sheet and the discipline about capital returned rather than committed — the company has been buying back stock and paying dividends instead of announcing growth projects at the top, which is the opposite of the 2011 behaviour.
The number to watch is unit cost through a full price cycle, not within a boom. Any management can hold costs when the price is falling and they have no choice.
- ReportedBarrick's AISC rose about 10% to $1,637 per ounce in 2025, with 2026 guided to $1,760-$1,950 and cash costs to $1,330-$1,470 from $1,199.Gold-miner peer comparison, 2025 results and 2026 guidance — Newmont led global production with 5.89 million attributable ounces in 2025; Agnico Eagle secured the number two global position with payable gold production of 3.447 million ounces, exceeding Barrick's 3.26 million ounces by nearly 200,000; Barrick's all-in sustaining costs rose 10% year on year to $1,637 per ounce in 2025 and are guided to $1,760-$1,950 for 2026, with cash costs of $1,330-$1,470 against $1,199 in 2025, while Agnico guided 2026 AISC of $1,400-$1,550 per ounce; Agnico trades at a forward twelve-month earnings multiple of about 11.5x, roughly 21.7% above the industry average of 9.48x; AngloGold and Agnico Eagle separated themselves from the pack through superior cost control and jurisdiction management while Barrick struggled with geopolitical friction, notably the dispute with Mali's authorities over the Loulo-Gounkoto complex — FY2025 / 2026 guidance · publ. 2026 · source ↗