⚠ Reserves Are Calculated at an Assumed PriceModerate threat

A mineral reserve is not a measurement of how much metal is in the ground. It is a statement of how much is economically extractable at an assumed price, using assumed costs, under an approved mine plan. Change any of those inputs and the number moves without a single rock being disturbed.

That has an uncomfortable implication during a price boom. Reserve statements computed at higher gold price assumptions convert previously uneconomic material into reserves, which flatters the replacement ratio and lengthens reserve life in exactly the years when everything already looks good. The reverse also holds: the write-downs the industry took in 2013 and 2014, when Barrick reported losses including one of $10.4 billion, were largely the same process running backwards; gold averaged $3,431 an ounce in 2025, a level that makes today's reserve assumptions generous by any historical standard¹.

Barrick's reserve base of roughly 77 million ounces and its multi-decade reserve life are real and among the best in the industry. They are also figures that would be smaller at a $2,000 gold price assumption than at a $3,400 one, and the sensitivity is rarely the headline.

The honest version of the reserve claim is therefore conditional rather than absolute, and it is why the price the reserves are booked at deserves as much attention as the ounce count.

The number to watch is the gold price assumption in the reserve statement, and the reserve grade alongside the tonnage. Reserves added by raising the price assumption cost more per ounce to mine than reserves added by drilling.