Recycled Gold: A Competitor With No MineThin moat
Barrick Mining (B) — moat facet
More than a quarter of world gold supply comes from jewellery boxes and scrap -- a competitor with no reserves, no permits and supply that expands exactly when prices make mining most profitable.
More than a quarter of the world's gold supply comes from a source that has no mines, no reserves, no permits, no jurisdiction risk and no exploration budget. In 2025, recycled gold supplied 1,404.3 tonnes against mine production of 3,671.6 tonnes, out of total supply of 5,002.3 tonnes1.
This is a competitor unlike any other in this collection. It cannot be outbid for ground, cannot be acquired, and has no fixed costs to be undercut on. Its supply responds to price automatically — when gold rises, people sell what they own — which means the supply competing with Barrick expands precisely in the conditions that make Barrick's mines most profitable.
The 2025 numbers add a nuance worth keeping. Recycling grew only 3 percent against a 67 percent rise in the dollar gold price, which the World Gold Council described as a relatively muted response. Holders, it seems, are keeping their gold rather than selling into strength, which is unusual and supportive.
The deeper point is about what gold is. Almost every ounce ever mined still exists, in vaults, jewellery boxes and central bank reserves, and it is all potential supply at some price. Mining adds roughly 1.6 percent a year to an above-ground stock that has been accumulating for millennia — which is the fundamental reason no producer, at any scale, has ever influenced this price.
Watch recycled supply against the price. A sharp jump would mean the above-ground stock has started competing in earnest.
A competitor with no mines, no reserves, no permits and no jurisdiction risk, whose supply expands automatically when prices rise. It grew only 3% against a 67% price rise, which the World Gold Council called a muted response — a sharp jump would mean the above-ground stock has started competing in earnest.
Source: World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends FY2025 ↗- ReportedRecycled gold supplied 1,404.3t in 2025 against mine production of 3,671.6t out of total supply of 5,002.3t, growing only 3% against a 67% rise in the dollar gold price — a relatively muted response.World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q4 and Full Year 2025 — total gold demand including OTC exceeded 5,000t for the first time, worth an unprecedented US$555bn (+45%), with the LBMA gold price setting 53 new all-time highs during 2025; the annual average price was US$3,431.5/oz (+44%) and the Q4 average a record US$4,135.2/oz (+55%). Supply: mine production a record 3,671.6t (+1%), net producer hedging -73.6t, recycled gold 1,404.3t (+3%) — described as a relatively muted response to a 67% increase in the US dollar gold price — for total supply of 5,002.3t. Demand: jewellery fabrication 1,638.0t (-19%) and jewellery consumption 1,542.3t (-18%) with jewellery demand value up 18% to a record; bar and coin 1,374.1t (+16%), a 12-year high; ETFs and similar products +801.2t against -2.9t in 2024, the second strongest year on record; central banks and other institutions 863.3t against 1,092.4t, at the upper end of the expected range, historically elevated and geographically widespread but slowed from their recent pace — FY2025 · publ. 2026-01-29 · source ↗