◆ What the Market Isn't Pricing In

Marubeni (8002) — the variant view

Berkshire bought Marubeni at under eight times earnings, financed it at 1.2%, and was paid 6.7% on its cost; the market has since re-rated, but the associates may still be carried below what they earn.

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The most instructive shareholder in Marubeni is the one that has the least to do with its operations. Berkshire Hathaway began buying in 2019 and said in August 2020 that it held slightly more than 5% of each of five Japanese trading houses, with an undertaking not to exceed 9.9% without board approval and an intention to hold for the long term1. The houses later agreed to moderately relax the ceiling2, and Berkshire crossed 10% of Marubeni on 7 May 2026, moving from 9.32% to 10.10%3.

Berkshire's Marubeni stake, end-2025 ($ m)1,572Cost4,468Market value1052025 dividendsBerkshire Hathaway 2025 shareholder letter; yen-financed at an average 1.2%
Nearly three times cost, and a dividend well above the cost of the yen that funded it.

What Berkshire paid tells you what the market was not pricing then. At the end of 2025 Berkshire's Marubeni stake had cost $1,572 million and was worth $4,468 million, having paid $105 million of dividends in the year4, 2.84 times cost5. Berkshire financed the purchases in yen at an average cost of 1.2%6. A dividend of $105 million on $1,572 million of cost is a yield of about 6.7% on money borrowed at 1.2%.

The market has since caught up. Marubeni traded at 7.9 times earnings and 1.1 times book at the end of March 2025 and at 18.2 times and 2.1 times a year later7. At the end of March 2020 its market value was ¥0.9 trillion8; it reached ¥10 trillion in February 20269.

What may still be underpriced is the associates portfolio. Investments in associates were ¥3,504,176 million at March 202610, carried at accounting values, and they produced ¥338.3 billion of equity-method income11, close to a 10% return on book. The market values the company at 1.76 times book12, a premium, but not one that obviously reflects stakes in world-class copper and leasing businesses that earn 10% on book in an average year.

The measure is the dividend received from associates. If it rises toward the income booked, the ¥3.5 trillion is worth more than its carrying value.

References
  1. ReportedBerkshire Hathaway began buying in 2019 and said in August 2020 that it held slightly more than 5% of each of five Japanese trading houses, with an undertaking not to exceed 9.9% without board approval and an intention to hold for the long term.
    Berkshire Hathaway news release, 31 August 2020 - National Indemnity's holdings of slightly more than 5% in each of five Japanese trading companies, the undertaking not to exceed 9.9% without board approval, and the intent to hold for the long term. — August 2020 · publ. 31 August 2020 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe houses later agreed to moderately relax the ceiling, and Berkshire crossed 10% of Marubeni on 7 May 2026, moving from 9.32% to 10.10%.
    Berkshire Hathaway 2024 shareholder letter - the five trading companies' agreement to moderately relax the 10% ceiling, and the yen borrowing that matches the investment. — 2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe houses later agreed to moderately relax the ceiling, and Berkshire crossed 10% of Marubeni on 7 May 2026, moving from 9.32% to 10.10%.
    Hedge Fund Alpha, 'Berkshire Crosses 10% In All Five Japanese Trading Houses Under Greg Abel' - Marubeni moved from 9.32% to 10.10% on 7 May 2026. — May 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedAt the end of 2025 Berkshire's Marubeni stake had cost $1,572 million and was worth $4,468 million, having paid $105 million of dividends in the year, 2.84 times cost.
    Berkshire Hathaway 2025 shareholder letter - the holdings table showing Marubeni at 9.8%, cost $1,572 million and market value $4,468 million at 31 December 2025, and the yen borrowing at an average cost of 1.2%. — 2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  5. Moat Explorer calcAt the end of 2025 Berkshire's Marubeni stake had cost $1,572 million and was worth $4,468 million, having paid $105 million of dividends in the year, 2.84 times cost.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Marubeni's reported figures. Equity-method share of profit before tax: 338.3 / 664.5 = 50.9%. Resources share of adjusted net profit: 147.0 / 480.0 = 30.6%. Investments in associates as a share of total assets: 3,504.2 / 10,531.8 = 33.3%. Segment net profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Food & Agri 81.5 / 2,700.6 = 3.0%; Metals & Mineral Resources 134.3 / 1,647.6 = 8.2%; Finance, Leasing & Real Estate 162.0 / 1,021.0 = 15.9%; Power & Infrastructure 53.6 / 1,776.1 = 3.0%; Aerospace & Mobility 47.8 / 838.6 = 5.7%; Energy & Chemicals 23.2 / 1,147.6 = 2.0%; Lifestyle 25.9 / 667.6 = 3.9%. Food & Agri net margin on revenue: 81.5 / 3,720.5 = 2.2%. Total payout: (176.5 + 55.0) / 543.9 = 42.6%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net profit 543.9 + 186.4 - 154.4 = 575.9; revenue 8,265.8 + 2,609.2 - 2,163.7 = 8,711.3. Net profit growth from the year to March 2016: 543.9 / 62.3 = 8.7 times. Share of the Food & Agri segment's profit from Helena: 37.3 / 81.5 = 45.8%. Dividends received against equity-method income: 220.9 / 338.3 = 65.3%. Berkshire's gain on cost: 4,468 / 1,572 = 2.84 times. Equity growth from currency translation: 345.8 of 734.5 = 47.1%. Market value against the ¥26 trillion that ranked 100th in the world at March 2026: 8.09 / 26 = 31%. Other segments, year to March 2026: IT Solutions 5.4 + Next Generation Business Development 19.6 - Next Generation Corporate Development 1.7 - Other 7.7 = 15.6; with Lifestyle 25.9 the chart's last band is 41.5, and for the year to March 2025 29.5 + 3.5 + 4.7 - 2.2 + 17.3 = 52.8. Trailing P/E: 8.09 / 0.5759 = 14.0. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Marubeni's financial results, integrated report and IR presentations; operands shown in the source line.
  6. ReportedBerkshire financed the purchases in yen at an average cost of 1.2%.
    Berkshire Hathaway 2025 shareholder letter - the holdings table showing Marubeni at 9.8%, cost $1,572 million and market value $4,468 million at 31 December 2025, and the yen borrowing at an average cost of 1.2%. — 2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedMarubeni traded at 7.9 times earnings and 1.1 times book at the end of March 2025 and at 18.2 times and 2.1 times a year later.
    Marubeni Corporation, full-year IR presentation for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - capital allocation, divestments and investments, shareholder returns, dividends and buybacks, credit ratings, and the share price and market value milestones. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedAt the end of March 2020 its market value was ¥0.9 trillion; it reached ¥10 trillion in February 2026.
    Marubeni Corporation, full-year IR presentation for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - capital allocation, divestments and investments, shareholder returns, dividends and buybacks, credit ratings, and the share price and market value milestones. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedAt the end of March 2020 its market value was ¥0.9 trillion; it reached ¥10 trillion in February 2026.
    Marubeni Corporation, full-year IR presentation for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - capital allocation, divestments and investments, shareholder returns, dividends and buybacks, credit ratings, and the share price and market value milestones. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedInvestments in associates were ¥3,504,176 million at March 2026, carried at accounting values, and they produced ¥338.3 billion of equity-method income, close to a 10% return on book.
    Marubeni Corporation, Summary of Consolidated Financial Results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - consolidated statements of profit or loss, financial position and cash flows, the segment note on the ten operating segments with revenue, gross trading profit, operating profit, share of profit of associates, net profit and segment assets, the investments in associates by segment, the one-time items including the Daiichi Life real-estate valuation gain, the dividend and buyback record, and the forecast for the year to March 2027 with its assumptions. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedInvestments in associates were ¥3,504,176 million at March 2026, carried at accounting values, and they produced ¥338.3 billion of equity-method income, close to a 10% return on book.
    Marubeni Integrated Report 2026, Section 6 Corporate Data - the twelve-year financial summary (revenue, gross trading profit, operating profit, share of associates, net profit, adjusted net profit, EPS, dividends, ROE, ROA, net D/E, cash flows, total assets and equity), shareholder composition, employees and gross risk exposure by country. — FY to March 2015 - FY to March 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedThe market values the company at 1.76 times book, a premium, but not one that obviously reflects stakes in world-class copper and leasing businesses that earn 10% on book in an average year.
    Marubeni (TYO: 8002) statistics - price-to-book and valuation ratios, September 2026. — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026