⚠ Ratings Follow Commodity PricesLow threat

Marubeni (8002) — threat to the moat

A downturn in copper and coal would hit Marubeni's profits, asset values and leverage together, and the rating would follow.

Marubeni's net D/E was 1.23 in the year to March 2020, when it lost ¥197.5 billion1. Resource prices, write-downs and leverage move together, and the agencies look at all three.

Loss year and leverage1.23Net D/E, yr to Mar 20200.43Net D/E, yr to Mar 2026Marubeni Integrated Report 2026
The last commodity bust came with leverage nearly three times today's.

Resources were ¥147.0 billion of adjusted profit in the year to March 20262, and a commodity downturn would hit that profit, the value of the stakes and the ratio of debt to equity at once.

The company's own stress testing is framed the same way. It describes quantifying impairment risk across its owned assets, verifying total risk within its financial capacity, and running simulations by country and industry3. Its risk assets were ¥3.0 trillion against equity of ¥3.6 trillion at March 20254.

The measure is net D/E in a year of falling commodity prices. If it rises above 0.6 in such a year, the A- will be under review.

References
  1. ReportedMarubeni's net D/E was 1.23 in the year to March 2020, when it lost ¥197.5 billion.
    Marubeni Integrated Report 2026, Section 6 Corporate Data - the twelve-year financial summary (revenue, gross trading profit, operating profit, share of associates, net profit, adjusted net profit, EPS, dividends, ROE, ROA, net D/E, cash flows, total assets and equity), shareholder composition, employees and gross risk exposure by country. — FY to March 2015 - FY to March 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedResources were ¥147.0 billion of adjusted profit in the year to March 2026, and a commodity downturn would hit that profit, the value of the stakes and the ratio of debt to equity at once.
    Marubeni Corporation, full-year IR presentation for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - adjusted net profit by segment and by resources and non-resources, and the one-time items. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIt describes quantifying impairment risk across its owned assets, verifying total risk within its financial capacity, and running simulations by country and industry.
    Marubeni Corporation, full-year IR presentation for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - resource asset table (stakes, capacities, partners and exposures), equity volumes, sensitivities to commodity prices and currencies, and the Middle East risk scenarios and risk-management framework. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIts risk assets were ¥3.0 trillion against equity of ¥3.6 trillion at March 2025.
    Marubeni Corporation, full-year IR presentation for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - resource asset table (stakes, capacities, partners and exposures), equity volumes, sensitivities to commodity prices and currencies, and the Middle East risk scenarios and risk-management framework. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026