⚠ Copper, Coal and the Middle EastModerate threat

Marubeni (8002) — threat to the moat

A third of Marubeni's profit is set by commodity prices and a Middle East conflict it can model but not influence.

Marubeni's resource businesses earned ¥147.0 billion of adjusted net profit in the year to March 2026, against ¥328.0 billion from non-resources1, about 30.6% of the total2. That is a minority of profit and still large enough to decide good and bad years.

Net profit sensitivities, year to March 2027 forecast (¥ bn)Yen, per ¥1 against the dollar1.9Copper, per $100 a tonne1.3Australian dollar, per ¥10.6Oil, per $1 a barrel0.2Marubeni IR presentation, May 2026
The yen and copper matter most; oil barely registers.

The sensitivities are specific. The company estimates about ¥1.3 billion of net profit for each $100 a tonne move in copper, about ¥0.2 billion for each dollar a barrel of oil, and about ¥1.9 billion for each yen of movement against the dollar3. Its forecast for the year to March 2027 assumes copper at $12,000 a tonne and oil at $604.

The newest risk is geopolitical. Marubeni has modelled a closure of the Strait of Hormuz in three phases — price surge, production adjustment and economic downturn — and concludes that the risk of significant impairment to its earnings is limited even in the third5. Its results warn that Japan is expected to be significantly affected by the heightened tensions in the Middle East6.

In the April-June 2026 quarter the resources side helped: Metals & Mineral Resources rose to ¥42.0 billion from ¥28.7 billion on copper, coal and aluminium prices7.

Marubeni's resource volumes are growing slowly: oil and gas equity production rose from 15 to 20 thousand barrels of oil equivalent a day, and steelmaking coal equity sales from 6,056 to 6,673 thousand tonnes8, while copper sales slipped from 134 to 132 thousand tonnes9. The profit swings come from price, not volume.

The measure is resource profit in a downturn. In the year to March 2020, commodity write-downs turned the whole company to a ¥197.5 billion loss10; a downturn that leaves Marubeni profitable would show the portfolio has changed.

The number that tests this threat
Reported
Net profit sensitivity to copper
about ¥1.3bn per $100 a tonne

The largest single price exposure; the forecast assumes $12,000 a tonne, so a fall to $10,000 would cost about ¥26 billion.

Source: Marubeni full-year IR presentation, May 2026 ↗
References
  1. ReportedMarubeni's resource businesses earned ¥147.0 billion of adjusted net profit in the year to March 2026, against ¥328.0 billion from non-resources, about 30.6% of the total.
    Marubeni Corporation, full-year IR presentation for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - adjusted net profit by segment and by resources and non-resources, and the one-time items. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcMarubeni's resource businesses earned ¥147.0 billion of adjusted net profit in the year to March 2026, against ¥328.0 billion from non-resources, about 30.6% of the total.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Marubeni's reported figures. Equity-method share of profit before tax: 338.3 / 664.5 = 50.9%. Resources share of adjusted net profit: 147.0 / 480.0 = 30.6%. Investments in associates as a share of total assets: 3,504.2 / 10,531.8 = 33.3%. Segment net profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Food & Agri 81.5 / 2,700.6 = 3.0%; Metals & Mineral Resources 134.3 / 1,647.6 = 8.2%; Finance, Leasing & Real Estate 162.0 / 1,021.0 = 15.9%; Power & Infrastructure 53.6 / 1,776.1 = 3.0%; Aerospace & Mobility 47.8 / 838.6 = 5.7%; Energy & Chemicals 23.2 / 1,147.6 = 2.0%; Lifestyle 25.9 / 667.6 = 3.9%. Food & Agri net margin on revenue: 81.5 / 3,720.5 = 2.2%. Total payout: (176.5 + 55.0) / 543.9 = 42.6%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net profit 543.9 + 186.4 - 154.4 = 575.9; revenue 8,265.8 + 2,609.2 - 2,163.7 = 8,711.3. Net profit growth from the year to March 2016: 543.9 / 62.3 = 8.7 times. Share of the Food & Agri segment's profit from Helena: 37.3 / 81.5 = 45.8%. Dividends received against equity-method income: 220.9 / 338.3 = 65.3%. Berkshire's gain on cost: 4,468 / 1,572 = 2.84 times. Equity growth from currency translation: 345.8 of 734.5 = 47.1%. Market value against the ¥26 trillion that ranked 100th in the world at March 2026: 8.09 / 26 = 31%. Other segments, year to March 2026: IT Solutions 5.4 + Next Generation Business Development 19.6 - Next Generation Corporate Development 1.7 - Other 7.7 = 15.6; with Lifestyle 25.9 the chart's last band is 41.5, and for the year to March 2025 29.5 + 3.5 + 4.7 - 2.2 + 17.3 = 52.8. Trailing P/E: 8.09 / 0.5759 = 14.0. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Marubeni's financial results, integrated report and IR presentations; operands shown in the source line.
  3. ReportedThe company estimates about ¥1.3 billion of net profit for each $100 a tonne move in copper, about ¥0.2 billion for each dollar a barrel of oil, and about ¥1.9 billion for each yen of movement against the dollar.
    Marubeni Corporation, full-year IR presentation for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - resource asset table (stakes, capacities, partners and exposures), equity volumes, sensitivities to commodity prices and currencies, and the Middle East risk scenarios and risk-management framework. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIts forecast for the year to March 2027 assumes copper at $12,000 a tonne and oil at $60.
    Marubeni Corporation, Summary of Consolidated Financial Results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - consolidated statements of profit or loss, financial position and cash flows, the segment note on the ten operating segments with revenue, gross trading profit, operating profit, share of profit of associates, net profit and segment assets, the investments in associates by segment, the one-time items including the Daiichi Life real-estate valuation gain, the dividend and buyback record, and the forecast for the year to March 2027 with its assumptions. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedMarubeni has modelled a closure of the Strait of Hormuz in three phases — price surge, production adjustment and economic downturn — and concludes that the risk of significant impairment to its earnings is limited even in the third.
    Marubeni Corporation, full-year IR presentation for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - resource asset table (stakes, capacities, partners and exposures), equity volumes, sensitivities to commodity prices and currencies, and the Middle East risk scenarios and risk-management framework. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIts results warn that Japan is expected to be significantly affected by the heightened tensions in the Middle East.
    Marubeni Corporation, Summary of Consolidated Financial Results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - consolidated statements of profit or loss, financial position and cash flows, the segment note on the ten operating segments with revenue, gross trading profit, operating profit, share of profit of associates, net profit and segment assets, the investments in associates by segment, the one-time items including the Daiichi Life real-estate valuation gain, the dividend and buyback record, and the forecast for the year to March 2027 with its assumptions. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIn the April-June 2026 quarter the resources side helped: Metals & Mineral Resources rose to ¥42.0 billion from ¥28.7 billion on copper, coal and aluminium prices.
    Marubeni Corporation, Summary of Consolidated Financial Results for the three months ended June 30, 2026 (IFRS) - revenue, operating profit and net profit, segment results, progress against the full-year forecast, the balance sheet at 30 June 2026, and the revised GC2027 capital allocation and new share buyback. — April-June 2026 · publ. 3 August 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedMarubeni's resource volumes are growing slowly: oil and gas equity production rose from 15 to 20 thousand barrels of oil equivalent a day, and steelmaking coal equity sales from 6,056 to 6,673 thousand tonnes, while copper sales slipped from 134 to 132 thousand tonnes.
    Marubeni Corporation, full-year IR presentation for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - resource asset table (stakes, capacities, partners and exposures), equity volumes, sensitivities to commodity prices and currencies, and the Middle East risk scenarios and risk-management framework. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedMarubeni's resource volumes are growing slowly: oil and gas equity production rose from 15 to 20 thousand barrels of oil equivalent a day, and steelmaking coal equity sales from 6,056 to 6,673 thousand tonnes, while copper sales slipped from 134 to 132 thousand tonnes.
    Marubeni Corporation, full-year IR presentation for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - resource asset table (stakes, capacities, partners and exposures), equity volumes, sensitivities to commodity prices and currencies, and the Middle East risk scenarios and risk-management framework. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedIn the year to March 2020, commodity write-downs turned the whole company to a ¥197.5 billion loss; a downturn that leaves Marubeni profitable would show the portfolio has changed.
    Marubeni Integrated Report 2026, Section 6 Corporate Data - the twelve-year financial summary (revenue, gross trading profit, operating profit, share of associates, net profit, adjusted net profit, EPS, dividends, ROE, ROA, net D/E, cash flows, total assets and equity), shareholder composition, employees and gross risk exposure by country. — FY to March 2015 - FY to March 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026