⚠ Assets Grew 22.8% and Profit Grew 3.6%High threat

Dino Polska (DNP) — threat to the moat

The denominator is compounding faster than the numerator, and that is the definition of a falling return.

The clearest statement of Dino's problem is a comparison of three growth rates in the same year.

Return on invested capital (%)WACC ~9%22,7%202021,7%202126,3%202225,7%202321,8%202419,7%2025Against an assumed 9% cost of capital. Four years, one direction.
Still more than twice the hurdle, and a quarter lower than it was in 2022. That gap is the whole bear case.

In 2025, property, plant and equipment rose 22,8%1, revenue rose 14,9%, and net profit rose from 1 504 980 to 1 558 360 thousand złoty — 3,6%2. Each line grew more slowly than the one that funded it. Put differently: Dino added roughly a fifth to its productive asset base and got a twenty-eighth more profit.

One year proves nothing; a build phase front-loads assets and the profit follows. But the return on invested capital says the pattern is not new. It was 26,3% in 2022, 25,7% in 2023, 21,8% in 2024 and 19,7% in 20253. Four years, one direction.

The company's own explanation is competitive: consumers became more price-sensitive and margin was given back to hold volume. That is credible, and it is also exactly what the end of pricing power looks like.

There is a mechanical component too, and it is the cost of the ownership model. A fifth more property means a fifth more depreciation, which duly rose 23,4% to 505,0 million złoty4 — a charge that lands in full whether or not the new stores hit their numbers.

The falsifier is the return itself. If ROIC stabilises above the mid-teens while the store count keeps rising, the build phase explanation was right. If it keeps sliding toward the 9% hurdle, Dino is a company adding assets that earn less than the ones it already had.

References
  1. ReportedIn 2025, property, plant and equipment rose 22,8%, revenue rose 14,9%, and net profit rose from 1 504 980 to 1 558 360 thousand złoty — 3,6%.
    Dino Polska Management Board's Activity Report for 2025 - Section 4,1-4,3, results of operations (sales revenue of 33 634,2m złoty up 14,9%, gross profit and the 23,5% gross margin, the cost lines including employee benefits up 21,2% and depreciation up 23,4%, EBITDA, and like-for-like growth of 4,4%) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIn 2025, property, plant and equipment rose 22,8%, revenue rose 14,9%, and net profit rose from 1 504 980 to 1 558 360 thousand złoty — 3,6%.
    Dino Polska Management Board's Activity Report for 2025 - Section 4,1-4,3, results of operations (sales revenue of 33 634,2m złoty up 14,9%, gross profit and the 23,5% gross margin, the cost lines including employee benefits up 21,2% and depreciation up 23,4%, EBITDA, and like-for-like growth of 4,4%) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcIt was 26,3% in 2022, 25,7% in 2023, 21,8% in 2024 and 19,7% in 2025.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Dino's consolidated financial statements: NOPAT (operating profit less 19% Polish corporate income tax) divided by average invested capital (total assets less total current liabilities), giving 22,7% in 2020 rising to 26,3% in 2022 and falling to 19,7% in 2025 — FY2020-FY2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedA fifth more property means a fifth more depreciation, which duly rose 23,4% to 505,0 million złoty — a charge that lands in full whether or not the new stores hit their numbers.
    Dino Polska Management Board's Activity Report for 2025 - Section 4,1-4,3, results of operations (sales revenue of 33 634,2m złoty up 14,9%, gross profit and the 23,5% gross margin, the cost lines including employee benefits up 21,2% and depreciation up 23,4%, EBITDA, and like-for-like growth of 4,4%) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026