⚠ The Towns Are FiniteHigh threat

Dino Polska (DNP) — threat to the moat

Sites are taken in order of quality, so the last store is by construction the worst one.

There is a number of Polish towns that fit a 400-square-metre grocery format, and Dino has taken 3 176 of them1.

What each additional store is worthStores standing, June 20263 176Sites chosenBest catchment firstTherefore store 4 000's catchmentWorse than store 1 000'sCompany's stated remaining pathDensity in existing areasIncreasing density means a second Dino where one was judged sufficient.
Every roll-out takes its sites in order of quality, so the last store is by construction the worst one.

The constraint is not capital — the company funds its building from profit2 — and it is not the construction machine, which raised openings 22% in 20253. It is geography. Sites are selected in order of attractiveness, so the catchment supporting store number 4 000 is by construction less attractive than the one supporting store number 1 000. That is true of every roll-out and is normally invisible until the average starts falling.

Dino says there is still room to increase density in existing areas as well as to enter new regions4, which is the standard answer and may well be right. Increasing density in an existing area, however, means putting a second Dino into a catchment the company previously judged large enough for one — which is the efficient-scale argument being spent rather than exercised.

There is a cleaner version of the same measurement that Dino does publish. Sales area rose 13% in 2025, to 1,2 million square metres5, while revenue rose 14,9% — so sales per square metre still improved, narrowly. That gap is the roll-out's margin of safety, and in 2025 it was about two percentage points wide.

The number that would show it is revenue per store. It is not disclosed directly, but revenue divided by the store count is computable each half-year, and a sustained fall while the count rises means the marginal town no longer carries the format.

References
  1. ReportedThere is a number of Polish towns that fit a 400-square-metre grocery format, and Dino has taken 3 176 of them.
    Dino Polska Management Report for the first half of 2026 - 3 176 stores at 30 June 2026 (341 more than a year earlier), 86 openings in the second quarter, revenue of 9 531,4m złoty up 10,5%, like-for-like growth of 0,3% in the quarter and 2,2% for the half, and the EBITDA margin of 6,98% against 7,54% — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe constraint is not capital — the company funds its building from profit — and it is not the construction machine, which raised openings 22% in 2025.
    Dino Polska Management Board's Activity Report for 2025 - Section 3,4, growth strategy (345 stores opened in 2025, 22% more than the prior year and ahead of target, the intention to increase density in existing areas as well as expand into new regions, and the process for securing new sites) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe constraint is not capital — the company funds its building from profit — and it is not the construction machine, which raised openings 22% in 2025.
    Dino Polska Management Board's Activity Report for 2025 - Section 3,4, growth strategy (345 stores opened in 2025, 22% more than the prior year and ahead of target, the intention to increase density in existing areas as well as expand into new regions, and the process for securing new sites) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedDino says there is still room to increase density in existing areas as well as to enter new regions, which is the standard answer and may well be right.
    Dino Polska 2025 results presentation - the store and distribution-centre history (511 stores and one centre in 2015, 1 473 and five in 2020, 3 033 and twelve in 2025) and the EBITDA bridge — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedSales area rose 13% in 2025, to 1,2 million square metres, while revenue rose 14,9% — so sales per square metre still improved, narrowly.
    Dino Polska Management Board's Activity Report for 2025 - Section 4,1-4,3, results of operations (sales revenue of 33 634,2m złoty up 14,9%, gross profit and the 23,5% gross margin, the cost lines including employee benefits up 21,2% and depreciation up 23,4%, EBITDA, and like-for-like growth of 4,4%) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026